Hurricane Isaias intensified to a major hurricane early on Friday as it moved toward the northern Gulf Coast. At 8:20 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Isaias was located at latitude 27.0°N and longitude 87.6°W which put the center about 240 miles (390 km) south of Pensacola, Florida. Isaias was moving toward the north-northeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Ocean Springs, Mississippi to the Bay County/ Gulf County line in Florida. The Hurricane Warning includes Mobile, Alabama and Pensacola, Florida.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Jefferson Parish/Plaquemines Parish line in Louisiana to Ocean Springs, Mississippi.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Bay County/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, Florida.
Aircraft reconnaissance found that Hurricane Isaias had intensified to a major hurricane on Friday morning.
A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of Hurricane Isaias. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Isaias’ circulation. Storms near the center of Isaias generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.
The size of the circulation around Hurricane Isaias increased on Thursday night. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Isaias’ circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Hurricane Isaias.
The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Isaias is 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 12.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 34.1. Hurricane Isaias is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005.
Hurricane Isaias will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Isaias will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is over Texas. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Isaias’ circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification. Hurricane Isaias could intensify during the next 12 hours.
The upper level trough over Texas will steer Isaias toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Isaias will make landfall on the northern Gulf Coast near Pensacola, Florida on Friday night.
Hurricane Isaias will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the northern Gulf Coast. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Isaias will be capable of causing major damage. Widespread electricity outages are likely.
Flood Watches are in effect for parts of southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and Northwest Florida.
Isaias could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along portions of the northern Gulf Coast.
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Suwannee River, Florida.