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Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings Issued for Florida’s West Coast Because of Cat. 5 Milton

Hurricane Warnings and Storm Surge Warnings were issued for the west coast of Florida because of the threat posed by Category 5 Hurricane Milton.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Milton was located at latitude 21.8°N and longitude 90.8°W which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico.  Milton was moving toward the east-southeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 215 m.p.h. (345 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 905 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Hurricane Warning includes Tampa Bay.  AA Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Celestun to Rio Lagartos, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the St. Lucie. Indian River County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary’s River, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Celestun to Campeche, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Bonita Beach, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Rio Lagartos to Cancun, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Celestun to Campeche, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line, Florida.   A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary’s River, Florida to the South Santee River, South Carolina.

Hurricane Milton continued to intensify late on Monday afternoon.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Milton’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Milton.  Storms near the center of Milton’s circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

Hurricane Milton is a small hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extend out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Milton’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Hurricane Milton.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Milton is 42.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 10.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 52.8.  Hurricane Milton is stronger than Hurricane Michael was when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.  Milton is not quite as big as Michael was.

Hurricane Milton move through an environment favorable fora powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Milton will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Milton will could intensify a little more during the next 24 hours.  However, the inner end of a rainband could wrap around the existing eye and eyewall.  If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle will cause Hurricane Milton to weaken.  If an eyewall replacement cycle occurs, then the size of Milton’s circulation will get larger.

An upper level trough over the central U.S. will start to steer Milton more quickly toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Milton will reach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday evening.  Milton will be a major hurricane when it reaches Florida.

Hurricane Milton will be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Florida.  Milton will bring strong gusty winds and heavy rain to the west coast of Florida.  Milton will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Florida.  Milton will be capable of causing major damage. Heavy rains will cause floods in some locations.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.

Flood Watches are in effect for much of the Florida Peninsula.

Milton will also produce a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) along the west coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Edisto Beach, South Carolina.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Leslie was slowly weakening.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Leslie was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 42.1°W which put the center about 1185 miles (1910 km) west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Leslie was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Hurricane Milton Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 5

Hurricane Milton rapidly intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on on Monday morning.  At 12:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Milton was located at latitude 21.7°N and longitude 91.6°W which put the center about 125 miles (200 km) west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico.  Milton was moving toward the east-southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 925 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Celestun to Rio Lagartos, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Hurricane Watch includes Tampa Bay.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Celestun to Campeche, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Rio Lagartos to Cancun, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Celestun to Campeche, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Chokoloskee, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass, Florida.

Hurricane Milton rapidly intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Monday morning.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Milton’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Milton.  Storms near the center of Milton’s circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

Hurricane Milton was a small hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Milton’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Hurricane Milton.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Milton is 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 10.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 45.6. Hurricane Milton is as strong as Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.  Milton is not quite as big as Michael was.

Hurricane Milton move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Milton will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Milton will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Milton could continue to intensify rapidly for a few more hours.

An upper level trough over the central U.S. will start to steer Milton more quickly toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Milton will reach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday.  Milton will be a major hurricane when it reaches Florida.

Hurricane Milton will be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Florida. Milton will bring strong gusty winds and heavy rain to the west coast of Florida. Milton will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Florida. Milton will be capable of causing major damage. Heavy rains will cause floods in some locations. Widespread electricity outages are likely.

Flood Watches are in effect for much of the Florida Peninsula.

Milton will also produce a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) along the west coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Storm Surge Watch includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Kirk was making an transition to a strong extratropical cyclone and Hurricane Leslie was spinning west of the Azores.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Kirk was located at latitude 41.7°N and longitude 38.4°W which put the center about 655 miles (1055 km) west-northwest of the Azores.  Kirk was moving toward the northeast at 29 m.p.h. (46 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

At !!:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Leslie was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 41.2°W which put the center about 1120 miles (1805 km) west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Leslie was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Rapidly Intensifying Hurricane Milton Prompts Hurricane Watch for Florida

The threat posed by rapidly intensifying Hurricane Milton prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Watch for the west coast of Florida on Monday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Milton was located at latitude 21.8°N and longitude 92.9°W which put the center about 165 miles (265 km) west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico.  Milton was moving toward the east-southeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 945 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Celestun to Rio Lagartos, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Hurricane Watch includes Tampa Bay.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Celestun to Campeche, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Rio Lagartos to Cancun, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Celestun to Campeche, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Chokoloskee, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass, Florida.

Hurricane Milton rapidly intensified to a major hurricane on Monday morning.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) formed at the center of Milton’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Milton.  Storms near the center of Milton’s circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

Hurricane Milton was a small hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Milton’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Hurricane Milton.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Milton is 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 11.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 34.7.  Hurricane Milton is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005.

Hurricane Milton move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Milton will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Milton will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Milton could continue to intensify rapidly. Hurricane Milton could to strengthen to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale by Tuesday.

An upper level trough over the central U.S. will start to steer Milton more quickly toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Milton will reach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday. Milton will be a major hurricane when it reaches Florida.

Hurricane Milton will be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Florida.  Milton will bring strong gusty winds and heavy rain to the west coast of Florida.  Milton will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Florida.  Milton will be capable of causing major damage. Heavy rains will cause floods in some locations.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Milton will also produce a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) along the west coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Storm Surge Watch includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Kirk was making an transition to a strong extratropical cyclone and Hurricane Leslie was spinning west of the Azores.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Kirk was located at latitude 40.2°N and longitude 41.0°W which put the center about 765 miles (1230 km) west-northwest of the Azores. Kirk was moving toward the northeast at 30 m.p.h. (49 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Leslie was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 40.4°W which put the center about 1065 miles (1720 km) west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Leslie was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Low Pressure System Forms over Bay of Campeche

A low pressure system formed over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday.  The low pressure system was designated as Invest 91L.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of the low pressure system was located at latitude 18.8°N and longitude 92.7°W which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) west of Campeche, Mexico.  The low pressure system was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A low pressure system formed in the northern end of a tropical wave over the eastern Bay of Campeche on Saturday.  There was a well developed low level center of circulation that was visible on satellite images.  However, there were few thunderstorms near the center of circulation.  Thunderstorms were starting to form in bands in the eastern side of the low pressure system.  Bands in the rest of the low pressure system consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The low pressure system designated as Invest 91L will move into an environment mostly favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours.  The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31°C.  It will move over the eastern part of an upper level ridge over northern Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Invest 91L’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit the formation of a tropical cyclone, but the shear will not be enough to prevent the formation of a tropical depression or a tropical storm.

There is a second low pressure system embedded in a nearly stationary front over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  The second low pressure system could drift toward the southwest during the next day or two.  It is possible that the circulation around the second low pressure system and the circulation around Invest 91L could merge early next week.

The low pressure system designated as Invest 91L will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extended from the western Atlantic Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Invest 91L toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the low pressure system designated as Invest 91L will move toward the western Bay of Campeche.

If the second low pressure system over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico interacts with Invest 91L, then the low pressure system designated as Invest 91L could get pulled toward the north during the first half of next week.  If Invest 91L get pulled toward the north, then it would spend more time over water and it would have more time to strengthen.  The low pressure system designated as Invest 91L could affect the coast of Texas and Louisiana in a few days.

Tropical Storm Beryl Prompts Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches for Texas

The risk posed by Tropical Storm Beryl prompted the issuance of Hurricane and Storm Watches for a portion of the coast of Texas.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 89.2°W which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) east-southwest of Progreso, Mexico.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect from the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to Sargent, Texas.  The Hurricane Watch included Corpus Christi.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to Barra el Mezquital, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Cabo Catoche, Mexico.

A Storm Surge Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to Sargent, Texas.

Former Hurricane Beryl weakened to a tropical storm as it moved across the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday.  An eye was no longer detectable on visible satellite images, but the core of Beryl’s circulation appeared to be relatively intact.  Thunderstorms were still occurring near the center of Tropical Storm Beryl.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km/h) from the center of Tropical Storm Beryl.

Tropical Storm Beryl will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the southeastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Beryl will move toward the coast of Texas.  Beryl could approach the coast of Texas on Sunday night.

Beryl will move into an environment that will become more favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the eastern part of an upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level low will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent strengthening.  Tropical Storm Beryl is likely to strengthen slowly during the next 24 hours until the inner core of the circulation becomes more organized.  Beryl could intensify more rapidly when it approaches the Texas coast on Sunday.  Tropical Storm Beryl is very likely to intensify back to a hurricane.  There is a chance Beryl could intensify to a major hurricane by the end of the weekend.

 

 

Hurricane Beryl Hits the Yucatan

Hurricane Beryl hit the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 87.6°W which put the center about 15 miles (25 km) north-northwest of Tulum, Mexico.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for Cozumel.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Cancun, Mexico.   A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

The center of Hurricane Beryl made landfall on the coast of Mexico near Tulum on Friday morning.  Beryl was a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale at the time of landfall.  A small circular eye was present at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core of Beryl’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 25.8.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that extends over the western Atlantic Ocean and southeastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Beryl will move across the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula during the rest of Friday.

Hurricane Beryl will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula.  Strong winds and heavy rain will occur in Quintana Roo and Yucatan.  Beryl is capable of causing serious damage.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Hurricane Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the portion of the coast north of Tulum.

Hurricane Beryl will weaken as it moves across the Yucatan Peninsula.  Beryl will likely weaken to a tropical storm while it is over the Yucatan.  Hurricane Beryl will move over the western Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.  Beryl will move into an environment somewhat favorable for intensification when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the eastern part of an upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level low will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent strengthening.  Beryl could could intensify back to a hurricane when it moves over the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Beryl will move more toward the northwest during the weekend.  Beryl could approach the coast of Texas on Sunday.  Watches may be issued for the coast later on Friday or on Saturday.

 

Hurricane Beryl Approaches the Yucatan

Hurricane Beryl was approaching the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 85.5°W which put the center about 135 miles (220 km) east-southeast of Tulum, Mexico.  Beryl was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for Cozumel.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Cancun, Mexico.   A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chetumal, Mexico to Belize City, Belize.

After weakening earlier on Thursday, a U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Hurricane Beryl had strengthened back to a major hurricane on Thursday evening.  The reconnaissance plane found an eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) was at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core of Beryl’s circulation generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The increase in upper level divergence caused the surface pressure to decrease again.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl decreased on Thursday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.4.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit Alabama in 2020.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level low over Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent strengthening  Hurricane Beryl could intensify during the next few hours.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that extends over the western Atlantic Ocean and southeastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Beryl will reach the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday morning.

Hurricane Beryl will be able to cause regional major damage when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula.  Beryl will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Yucatan.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Hurricane Beryl could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) where the wind blows the water toward the coast.

 

Hurricane Beryl Buffets the Cayman Islands

Hurricane Beryl buffeted the Cayman Islands on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 19.0°N and longitude 82.6°W which put the center about 95 miles (150 km) west-southwest of Grand Cayman.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.  A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Cozumel.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Cancun, Mexico.   A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chetumal, Mexico to Belize City, Belize.

Hurricane Beryl buffeted the Cayman Islands with wind and rain on Thursday morning.  The core of Beryl’s circulation passed south of Grand Cayman.  So, the strongest winds and heaviest rain remained south of the Cayman Islands.  A weather station at Owen Roberts International Airport in Grand Cayman (MWCR) reported a sustained wind speed of 44 m.p.h. (71 km/h) and a wind gust of 54 m.p.h. (87 km/h).

An upper level low over the Gulf of Mexico was producing westerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Hurricane Beryl.  Those winds were also causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear was affecting the structure of Hurricane Beryl.  An eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storm.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the northern and eastern parts of Hurricane Beryl.  Bands in the southern and western parts of Beryl’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The westerly winds in the upper levels were inhibiting the divergence to the west of Hurricane Beryl.  Since the removal of mass was less than the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere, the surface pressure was increasing slowly.

Even though Hurricane Beryl was weaker, Beryl was still a major hurricane.  The circulation around Hurricane Beryl was a little smaller on Thursday morning.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 31.0.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit Alabama in 2020.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment that will only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level low over Gulf of Mexico and Northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The upper level low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will also moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear is likely to cause Hurricane Beryl to continue to weaken unless the upper level winds weaken.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that extends over the western Atlantic Ocean and southeastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Beryl will reach the Yucatan Peninsula early on Friday.

Hurricane Beryl is likely to still be a hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula.  Beryl will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Yucatan.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Hurricane Beryl could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) where the wind blows the water toward the coast.

 

 

 

Hurricane Beryl Brings Wind and Rain to Jamaica

Hurricane Beryl brought wind and rain to Jamaica on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 79.2°W which put the center about 160 miles (260 km) southeast of Grand Cayman.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.  A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Cozumel.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Cancun, Mexico.   A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chetumal, Mexico to Belize City, Belize.

Hurricane Beryl brought strong winds and heavy rain to Jamaica on Wednesday.  The center of Beryl’s circulation passed just to the south of Jamaica.  The northern eyewall of Hurricane Beryl moved along the south coast of Jamaica.  The strongest winds occurred in the southern part of Jamaica.  A weather station at Norman Manley International Airport in Kingston (MKJP) reported a sustained wind speed of 48 m.p.h. (78 km/h) and a wind gust of 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The strongest part of Hurricane Beryl passed south of that station.  There were report of wind damage and flooding in parts of Jamaica.

The most of the core of Hurricane Beryl passed just south of Jamaica and the core remained relatively intact.  Reconnaissance aircraft reported an eye with a diameter of 28 miles (45 km) at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  There was a ring of thunderstorms around the eye, but there was a break in the southwestern part of the ring.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  Westerly winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere were inhibiting divergence of mass to the west of Hurricane Beryl.  Since the removal of mass was less than the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere, the surface pressure was increasing slowly.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl was nearly steady on Wednesday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.1. Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2018.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment that will be less favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level low over Gulf of Mexico and Northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The upper level low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will also cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Beryl will continue to weaken as the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Beryl will pass south of the Cayman Islands during Wednesday night.

Hurricane Beryl will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Cayman Islands.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) where the wind blows the water toward the shower.

Hurricane Beryl will approach the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday evening.  Beryl is likely to still be a hurricane when it approaches the Yucatan.

 

 

Major Hurricane Beryl Nears Jamaica

Major Hurricane Beryl neared Jamaica on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 76.1°W which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.  A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Cancun, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chetumal, Mexico to Belize City, Belize.  A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Campeche, Mexico.

U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA aircraft found that Hurricane Beryl was still a major hurricane on Wednesday morning.   Although the eye appeared cloud filled on visible satellite images, the reconnaissance aircraft reported a circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was present at the center of Beryl’s circulation.   The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.   Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.   Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  Westerly winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere were inhibiting divergence of mass to the west of Hurricane Beryl.  Since the removal of mass was less than the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere, the surface pressure was increasing slowly.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl was nearly steady during Wednesday morning.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.9.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ida when Ida hit Louisiana in 2021.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment that will be less favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level low over Northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The upper level low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will also cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Beryl will weaken as the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Beryl pass near the southern coast of Jamaica on Wednesday afternoon.  Beryl will begin to affect the Cayman Islands later on Wednesday evening.

The core of Hurricane Beryl is likely to pass just south of Jamaica during the next few hours.  Much of Jamaica could experience winds to hurricane force.  The strongest winds will occur along the southern coast of Jamaica.   Beryl will be capable of causing regional major damage. Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Hurricane Beryl will also drop heavy rain on Jamaica.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the south coast of Jamaica where the wind blows the water toward the coast.

Hurricane Beryl will reach the Cayman Islands on Wednesday night. Beryl is forecast still to be a hurricane when it reaches the Cayman Islands.  Hurricane Beryl will be capable of causing regional serious damage when it reaches the Cayman Islands.

Hurricane Beryl will approach the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday evening.  Beryl is likely to still be a hurricane when it approaches the Yucatan.