Hurricane Beryl buffeted the Cayman Islands on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 19.0°N and longitude 82.6°W which put the center about 95 miles (150 km) west-southwest of Grand Cayman.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.  A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Cozumel.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Cancun, Mexico.   A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chetumal, Mexico to Belize City, Belize.

Hurricane Beryl buffeted the Cayman Islands with wind and rain on Thursday morning.  The core of Beryl’s circulation passed south of Grand Cayman.  So, the strongest winds and heaviest rain remained south of the Cayman Islands.  A weather station at Owen Roberts International Airport in Grand Cayman (MWCR) reported a sustained wind speed of 44 m.p.h. (71 km/h) and a wind gust of 54 m.p.h. (87 km/h).

An upper level low over the Gulf of Mexico was producing westerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Hurricane Beryl.  Those winds were also causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear was affecting the structure of Hurricane Beryl.  An eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storm.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the northern and eastern parts of Hurricane Beryl.  Bands in the southern and western parts of Beryl’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The westerly winds in the upper levels were inhibiting the divergence to the west of Hurricane Beryl.  Since the removal of mass was less than the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere, the surface pressure was increasing slowly.

Even though Hurricane Beryl was weaker, Beryl was still a major hurricane.  The circulation around Hurricane Beryl was a little smaller on Thursday morning.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 31.0.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit Alabama in 2020.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment that will only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level low over Gulf of Mexico and Northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The upper level low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will also moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear is likely to cause Hurricane Beryl to continue to weaken unless the upper level winds weaken.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that extends over the western Atlantic Ocean and southeastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Beryl will reach the Yucatan Peninsula early on Friday.

Hurricane Beryl is likely to still be a hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula.  Beryl will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Yucatan.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Hurricane Beryl could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) where the wind blows the water toward the coast.