Tag Archives: Tampa Bay

Hurricane Milton Nears West Coast of Florida

The center of Hurricane Milton neared the west coast of Florida on Wednesday afternoon.  At 5:00 P.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Milton was located at latitude 26.9°N and longitude 83.4°W which put the center about 60 miles (95 km) west-southwest of Sarasota, Florida.  Milton was moving toward the northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Hurricane Warning includes Tampa Bay.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Martin/Palm Beach County Line, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Bonita Beach, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the St. Lucie/Martin County Line, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to Edisto Beach, South Carolina.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the extreme Northwestern Bahamas including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos and Bimini.

Hurricane Milton was weakening gradually on Wednesday afternoon, but Milton was still a major hurricane.  An upper level trough over the southern Mississippi River Valley was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Milton’s circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The upper level winds were also inhibiting the upper level divergence to the west of Hurricane Milton.  The wind shear was causing Hurricane Milton to weaken gradually.

A circular eye was present at the center of Hurricane Milton.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and northern parts of Hurricane Milton.  Bands in the southern and western parts of Milton’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Milton generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the hurricane.

Even though Hurricane Milton is weakening, the circulation around Milton is getting larger.  Winds to hurricane force extend out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Milton’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of Hurricane Milton.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Milton is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 16.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 38.9.  Hurricane Milton is similar in intensity to Hurricane Irma when Irma hit southwest Florida in 2017.  Milton is not as big as Irma was.

Hurricane Milton will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Milton will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However, the upper level trough over the southern Mississippi River Valley will continue to cause moderate to strong vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will cause Hurricane Milton to continue to weaken gradually during the next few hours.

The upper level trough over the southern Mississippi River Valley will steer Hurricane Milton toward the northeast east during the next 12 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Milton will make landfall in a few hours on the west coast of Florida near or just to the south of Tampa.

Even though Hurricane Milton weakened today, Milton is still expected to be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Florida.   Milton will bring strong gusty winds and heavy rain to the west coast of Florida.   Milton will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Florida.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for many of the counties in Central Florida.  Those Hurricane Warnings include Orlando.

Milton will be capable of causing major damage.  Heavy rains will cause floods in some locations. Widespread electricity outages are likely.

Flood Watches are in effect for much of the Florida Peninsula.

Milton will also produce a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) along the west coast of Florida.  The highest storm surge is likely to occur along the portion of the coast just to the south of Tampa.  A storm surge of 8 to 12 feet (2,4 to 3.7 meters) could occur in Tampa Bay.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the Yankeetown, Florida.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.  A Storm Surge Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

Thunderstorms in bands in the eastern periphery of Hurricane Milton have already produced tornadoes over South Florida.  A Tornado Watch is in effect for much of the Florida Peninsula.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Leslie intensified east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Leslie was located at latitude 22.2°N and longitude 49.0°W which put the center about 955 miles (1535 km) east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Leslie was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Hurricane Milton Moves Toward West Coast of Florida

Hurricane Milton was moving toward the west coast of Florida on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Milton was located at latitude 25.8°N and longitude 84.3°W which put the center about 190 miles (305 km) southwest of Tampa, Florida.  Milton was moving toward the northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (275 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 931 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Hurricane Warning includes Tampa Bay.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach to the Mouth of the St. Mary’s River, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Martin/Palm Beach County Line, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Bonita Beach, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the St. Lucie/Martin County Line, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to Savannah River, Georgia.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the extreme Northwestern Bahamas including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos and Bimini.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Savannah River, Georgia to the South Santee River, South Carolina.

Hurricane Milton started to weaken gradually on Wednesday morning, but Milton was still a powerful, dangerous hurricane.  An upper level trough over the southern Mississippi River Valley was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Milton’s circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The upper level winds were also inhibiting the upper level divergence to the west of Hurricane Milton.  The wind shear was causing Hurricane Milton to weaken gradually.

Even though Hurricane Milton was weakening gradually, it was still a major hurricane.  A small circular eye was present at the center of Milton’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and northern parts of Hurricane Milton.  Bands in the southern and western parts of Milton’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Milton generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the hurricane.

Although Hurricane Milton is weakening, the circulation around Milton is getting larger.  Winds to hurricane force extend out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Milton’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Hurricane Milton.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Milton is 29.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 44.3.  Hurricane Milton is similar in intensity to Hurricane Charley when Charley hit southwest Florida in 2004.  Milton is much larger than Charley was.

Hurricane Milton will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Milton will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However, the upper level trough over the southern Mississippi River Valley will continue to cause moderate to strong vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will cause Hurricane Milton to weaken gradually during the next 12 hours.

The upper level trough over the southern Mississippi River Valley will steer Hurricane Milton toward the northeast east during the next 12 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Milton will make landfall on Wednesday night on the west coast of Florida near or just to the south of Tampa.

Even though Hurricane Milton will weaken today, Milton is still expected to be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Florida.  Milton will bring strong gusty winds and heavy rain to the west coast of Florida.  Milton will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Florida.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for many of the counties in Central Florida.  Those Hurricane Warnings include Orlando.

Milton will be capable of causing major damage.  Heavy rains will cause floods in some locations. Widespread electricity outages are likely.

Flood Watches are in effect for much of the Florida Peninsula.

Milton will also produce a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) along the west coast of Florida.  The highest storm surge is likely to occur along the portion of the coast just to the south of Tampa>  A storm surge of 8 to 12 feet (2,4 to 3.7 meters) could occur in Tampa Bay.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the Yankeetown, Florida.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.  A Storm Surge Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to Edisto Beach, South Carolina.

Thunderstorms in bands in the eastern periphery of Hurricane Milton were already producing tornadoes over South Florida.  A Tornado Watch is in effect for the southern half of the Florida Peninsula.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Leslie intensified east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Leslie was located at latitude 21.7°N and longitude 48.4°W which put the center about 985 miles (1585 km) east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Leslie was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Hurricane Milton Strengthens Back to Cat. 5

Hurricane Milton strengthened back to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale after completing an eyewall replacement cyclone on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Milton was located at latitude 22.7°N and longitude 87.5°W which put the center about 480 miles (775 km) southwest of Tampa, Florida.  Milton was moving toward the east-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 905 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Hurricane Warning includes Tampa Bay.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach to the Mouth of the St. Mary’s River, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Martin/Palm Beach County Line, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Bonita Beach, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the St. Lucie/Martin County Line, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Dzilam to Cancun, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the extreme Northwestern Bahamas including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos and Bimini.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to the South Santee River, South Carolina.

Hurricane Milton strengthened back to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday afternoon after an eyewall replacement cycle was completed.  A new eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Milton’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Milton.  Storms near the center of Milton’s circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to remain very low.

The completion of the eyewall replacement cycle caused the size of the circulation around Hurricane Milton to increase a little more.  Winds to hurricane force extend out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Milton’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Hurricane Milton.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Milton is 36.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 11.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 48.5.  Hurricane Milton is stronger than Hurricane Michael was when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.  Milton is not quite as big as Michael was.  Hurricane Milton is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Otis when Otis hit Acapulco last year.

Hurricane Milton move through an environment favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 18 hours.  Milton will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Milton will could intensify a little more during the next 18 hours.  An upper level trough over the Mississippi River Valley will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Milton’s circulation later on Wednesday.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase and Hurricane Milton is likely to start to weaken on Wednesday afternoon.  In addition, the inner end of another rainband could wrap around the existing eye and eyewall.  If concentric eyewalls form again, then another eyewall replacement cycle will cause Hurricane Milton to weaken faster.  However, if an another eyewall replacement cycle occurs, then the size of Milton’s circulation will increase again.

The upper level trough over the Mississippi River Valley will start to steer Milton more quickly toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Milton will reach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday night.  Milton will be a major hurricane when it reaches Florida.

Hurricane Milton will be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Florida.  Milton will bring strong gusty winds and heavy rain to the west coast of Florida. Milton will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Florida.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for many of the counties in Central Florida.  Those Hurricane Warnings include Orlando.

Milton will be capable of causing major damage. Heavy rains will cause floods in some locations. Widespread electricity outages are likely.

Flood Watches are in effect for much of the Florida Peninsula.

Milton will also produce a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) along the west coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.  A Storm Surge Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to Edisto Beach, South Carolina.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Leslie was still churning west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Leslie was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 46.4°W which put the center about 1490 miles (2400 km) west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Leslie was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings Issued for Florida’s West Coast Because of Cat. 5 Milton

Hurricane Warnings and Storm Surge Warnings were issued for the west coast of Florida because of the threat posed by Category 5 Hurricane Milton.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Milton was located at latitude 21.8°N and longitude 90.8°W which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico.  Milton was moving toward the east-southeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 215 m.p.h. (345 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 905 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Hurricane Warning includes Tampa Bay.  AA Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Celestun to Rio Lagartos, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the St. Lucie. Indian River County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary’s River, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Celestun to Campeche, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Bonita Beach, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Rio Lagartos to Cancun, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Celestun to Campeche, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line, Florida.   A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary’s River, Florida to the South Santee River, South Carolina.

Hurricane Milton continued to intensify late on Monday afternoon.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Milton’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Milton.  Storms near the center of Milton’s circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

Hurricane Milton is a small hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extend out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Milton’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Hurricane Milton.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Milton is 42.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 10.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 52.8.  Hurricane Milton is stronger than Hurricane Michael was when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.  Milton is not quite as big as Michael was.

Hurricane Milton move through an environment favorable fora powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Milton will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Milton will could intensify a little more during the next 24 hours.  However, the inner end of a rainband could wrap around the existing eye and eyewall.  If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle will cause Hurricane Milton to weaken.  If an eyewall replacement cycle occurs, then the size of Milton’s circulation will get larger.

An upper level trough over the central U.S. will start to steer Milton more quickly toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Milton will reach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday evening.  Milton will be a major hurricane when it reaches Florida.

Hurricane Milton will be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Florida.  Milton will bring strong gusty winds and heavy rain to the west coast of Florida.  Milton will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Florida.  Milton will be capable of causing major damage. Heavy rains will cause floods in some locations.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.

Flood Watches are in effect for much of the Florida Peninsula.

Milton will also produce a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) along the west coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Edisto Beach, South Carolina.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Leslie was slowly weakening.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Leslie was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 42.1°W which put the center about 1185 miles (1910 km) west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Leslie was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Hurricane Milton Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 5

Hurricane Milton rapidly intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on on Monday morning.  At 12:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Milton was located at latitude 21.7°N and longitude 91.6°W which put the center about 125 miles (200 km) west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico.  Milton was moving toward the east-southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 925 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Celestun to Rio Lagartos, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Hurricane Watch includes Tampa Bay.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Celestun to Campeche, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Rio Lagartos to Cancun, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Celestun to Campeche, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Chokoloskee, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass, Florida.

Hurricane Milton rapidly intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Monday morning.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Milton’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Milton.  Storms near the center of Milton’s circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

Hurricane Milton was a small hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Milton’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Hurricane Milton.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Milton is 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 10.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 45.6. Hurricane Milton is as strong as Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.  Milton is not quite as big as Michael was.

Hurricane Milton move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Milton will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Milton will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Milton could continue to intensify rapidly for a few more hours.

An upper level trough over the central U.S. will start to steer Milton more quickly toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Milton will reach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday.  Milton will be a major hurricane when it reaches Florida.

Hurricane Milton will be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Florida. Milton will bring strong gusty winds and heavy rain to the west coast of Florida. Milton will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Florida. Milton will be capable of causing major damage. Heavy rains will cause floods in some locations. Widespread electricity outages are likely.

Flood Watches are in effect for much of the Florida Peninsula.

Milton will also produce a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) along the west coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Storm Surge Watch includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Kirk was making an transition to a strong extratropical cyclone and Hurricane Leslie was spinning west of the Azores.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Kirk was located at latitude 41.7°N and longitude 38.4°W which put the center about 655 miles (1055 km) west-northwest of the Azores.  Kirk was moving toward the northeast at 29 m.p.h. (46 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

At !!:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Leslie was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 41.2°W which put the center about 1120 miles (1805 km) west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Leslie was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Hurricane Helene Makes Landfall in North Florida

The center of Hurricane Helene officially made landfall in North Florida on Thursday night.  The center of Helene crossed the coast of Florida near the mouth of the Aucilla River west-southwest of Perry.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Helene was located at latitude 29.9°N and longitude 83.9°W which put the center about 40 miles (65 km) southeast of Tallahassee, Florida and about 10 miles (15 km) west-southwest of Perry.  Helene was moving toward the north-northeast at 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 938 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Englewood, Florida.  The Hurricane Watch includes Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Flamingo, Florida.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Tampa Bay.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo, Florida to Little River Inlet, South Carolina.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee. 

Hurricane Helene intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale before it made landfall on the coast of Florida.  A circular eye with a diameter of 32 miles (52 km) was at the center of Helene’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Helene. Storms near the center of Helene generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane. The removal of large quantities of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Helene was large. Winds to hurricane force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Helene’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 310 miles (500 km) in the eastern side of Hurricane Helene.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the western side of Helene’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 21.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) 49.5.  Hurricane Helene is stronger than Hurricane Irma was when Irma hit southwest Florida in 2017.  However, Helene is not quite as big as Irma was.

Hurricane Helene will move around the eastern side of an upper level trough over the Mississippi River Valley.  The upper level trough will steer Helene quickly toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Helene will move across Georgia on Friday.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for parts of northern Florida, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.  The Hurricane Warnings include Tallahassee, Florida and Macon, Georgia.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Florida Peninsula, northwest Florida eastern Alabama, northern and eastern Georgia, all of South Carolina, southwestern North Carolina, and southeastern Tennessee.  The Tropical Storm Warnings include Atlanta, Georgia and Charleston, South Carolina.

Hurricane Helene will weaken gradually as it moves farther inland.  Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Georgia on Friday.  Heavy rain will also fall over the southern Appalachians.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.

Flood Watches are in effect for Florida, eastern Alabama, Georgia, western South Carolina, western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee.

Hurricane Helene will continue to cause a storm surge along the west coast of Florida during the next few hours.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Mexico Beach to Flamingo, Florida.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

Hurricane Helene Strengthens to Cat. 4

Hurricane Helene strengthened to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday evening.  At 6:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Helene was located at latitude 28.0°N and longitude 84.5°W which put the center about 165 miles (270 km) south of Tallahassee, Florida.  Helene was moving toward the north-northeast at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Englewood, Florida.  The Hurricane Watch includes Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Flamingo, Florida.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Tampa Bay.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo, Florida to Little River Inlet, South Carolina.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee. 

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Hurricane Helene was continuing to strengthen to on Thursday evening.  An eye with a diameter of 30 miles (48 km) was at the center of Helene’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Helene.  Storms near the center of Helene generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large quantities of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Helene was large.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Helene’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 345 miles (555 km) in the eastern side of Hurricane Helene.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the western side of Helene’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 23.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) 48.7.  Hurricane Helene is stronger than Hurricane Irma was when Irma hit southwest Florida in 2017.  However, Helene is not quite as big as Irma was.

Hurricane Helene will move through an environment favorable for intensification for the next few hours.  Helene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Helene could intensify a little more during the next few hours.

Hurricane Helene will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Helene toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Helene will make landfall on the coast of northern Florida at Apalachee Bay Thursday evening.  Helene will be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast.

Hurricane Helene will be a major hurricane when it reaches northern Florida.  Helene will be a large and dangerous hurricane.  Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Florida.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods.

Flood Watches are in effect for Florida, eastern Alabama, Georgia, western South Carolina, western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee.

Helene could also cause a storm surge of up to 20 feet (6.1 meters) along portions of the west coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Mexico Beach to Flamingo, Florida.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

An upper level trough over the Mississippi River Valley will steer Hurricane Helene quickly toward the north-northeast after it makes landfall.  Since the circulation around Helene is so large, Hurricane Helene will produce hurricane force winds in inland locations as well.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for parts of northern Florida, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.  The Hurricane Warnings include Tallahassee, Florida and Macon, Georgia.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Florida Peninsula, northwest Florida eastern Alabama, northern and eastern Georgia, all of South Carolina, southwestern North Carolina, and southeastern Tennessee.  The Tropical Storm Warnings include Atlanta, Georgia and Charleston, South Carolina.

Hurricane Helene is likely to cause widespread electricity outages as it moves inland over the southeastern U.S.

Helene Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Helene intensified to a major hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Helene was located at latitude 26.7°N and longitude 84.9°W which put the center about 205 miles (335 km) south of Apalachicola, Florida.  Helene was moving toward the north-northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Englewood, Florida.  The Hurricane Watch includes Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Flamingo, Florida.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Tampa Bay.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo, Florida to Little River Inlet, South Carolina.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee. 

A U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Hurricane Helene had strengthened to a major hurricane on Thursday afternoon.  An eye with a diameter of 30 miles (48 km) was at the center of Helene’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Helene.  Storms near the center of Helene generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Helene was large.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Helene’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 345 miles (555 km) in the eastern side of Hurricane Helene.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the western side of Helene’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 17.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) 39.7.  Hurricane Helene is stronger than Hurricane Irma was when Irma hit southwest Florida in 2017.  However, Helene is not as big as Irma was.

Hurricane Helene will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Helene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Helene is likely to intensify during the next few hours.  Helene could strengthen to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Helene will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Helene toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Helene will make landfall on the coast of northern Florida at Apalachee Bay Thursday evening.  Helene will be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast.

Hurricane Helene will be a major hurricane when it reaches northern Florida.  Helene will be a large and dangerous hurricane.  Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Florida.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods.

Flood Watches are in effect for Florida, eastern Alabama, Georgia, western South Carolina, western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee.

Helene could also cause a storm surge of up to 20 feet (6.1 meters) along portions of the west coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Mexico Beach to Flamingo, Florida.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

An upper level trough over the Mississippi River Valley will steer Hurricane Helene quickly toward the north-northeast after it makes landfall.  Since the circulation around Helene is so large, Hurricane Helene will produce hurricane force winds in inland locations as well.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for parts of northern Florida, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.  The Hurricane Warnings include Tallahassee, Florida and Macon, Georgia.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Florida Peninsula, northwest Florida eastern Alabama, northern and eastern Georgia, all of South Carolina, southwestern North Carolina, and southeastern Tennessee.  The Tropical Storm Warnings include Atlanta, Georgia and Charleston, South Carolina.

Hurricane Helene is likely to cause widespread electricity outages as it moves inland over the southeastern U.S.

Hurricane Helene Strengthens to Cat. 2

Hurricane Helene strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Helene was located at latitude 24.5°N and longitude 85.9°W which put the center about 365 miles (585 km) south of Apalachicola, Florida.  Helene was moving toward the north-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Englewood, Florida.  The Hurricane Watch includes Tampa Bay.  .

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Flamingo, Florida.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Tampa Bay.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo, Florida to Little River Inlet, South Carolina.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and Isle of Youth.

A U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Hurricane Helene had strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday morning.  An eye with a diameter of 30 miles (48 km) was at the center of Helene’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Helene.  Storms near the center of Helene generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Helene was large.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Helene’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 345 miles (555 km) in the eastern side of Hurricane Helene.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the western side of Helene’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 17.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) 34.1.  Hurricane Helene is similar in intensity to Hurricane Idalia that hit northeast Florida in 2023.  However, Helene is much bigger than Idalia was.  Helene is still intensifying.  So, Helen will be stronger than Idalia was when i reaches the coast.

Hurricane Helene will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Helene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Helene will intensify during the next 12 hours.  Helene is likely to strengthen to a major hurricane by Thursday afternoon.  Helene could intensify rapidly at times.

Hurricane Helene will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Helene toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Helene will make landfall on the coast of northern Florida at Apalachee Bay Thursday evening.  Helene is likely to be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast

Hurricane Helene is likely to be a major hurricane when it reaches northern Florida.  Helene will be a large and dangerous hurricane.  Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Florida.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods.

Flood Watches are in effect for Florida, eastern Alabama, Georgia, western South Carolina, western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee.

Helene could also cause a storm surge of up to 20 feet (6.1 meters) along portions of the west coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Mexico Beach to Flamingo, Florida.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

An upper level trough over the Mississippi River Valley will steer Hurricane Helene quickly toward the north-northeast after it makes landfall.  Since the circulation around Helene is so large, Hurricane Helene will produce hurricane force winds in inland locations as well.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for parts of northern Florida, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.  The Hurricane Warnings include Tallahassee, Florida and Macon, Georgia.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Florida Peninsula, northwest Florida eastern Alabama, northern and eastern Georgia, all of South Carolina, southwestern North Carolina, and southeastern Tennessee.  The Tropical Storm Warnings include Atlanta, Georgia and Charleston, South Carolina.

Hurricane Helene is likely to cause widespread electricity outages as it moves inland over the southeastern U.S.

Tropical Storm Helene Prompts Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings for Florida

The risk posed by Tropical Storm Helene prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Warning and a Storm Surge Warning for the west coast of Florida.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located at latitude 19.7°N and longitude 84.7°W which put the center about 155 miles (250 km) east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico.  Helene was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico.  That Hurricane Warning includes Cancun and Cozumel.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Englewood, Florida.  The Hurricane Watch includes Tampa Bay.  A Hurricane Watch is also in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Flamingo, Florida.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Tampa Bay.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line, Florida to Savannah River, Georgia.

Tropical Storm Helene strengthened on Tuesday afternoon.  The center of Helene’s circulation was near NOAA buoy 42056.  The buoy measured a surface pressure of 996 mb.

The inner end of a rainband started to wrap around the center of Tropical Storm Helene.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Helene’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Helene.  Storms near the center of Helene’s circulation generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Even though Tropical Storm Helene was strengthening, the distribution of wind speeds around Helene was still asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Helene.  The winds in the western side of Helene’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Helene will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Helene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico and the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Helene will intensify during the next 24 hours. Helene is likely to strengthen to a hurricane by Wednesday morning.  Helene could intensify rapidly after an inner core with an eye and an eyewall develops.

Tropical Storm Helene will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Helene toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Helene will be near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday morning.  Helene will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.  Helene is likely to approach northern Florida on Thursday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Helene is likely to be a hurricane when it reaches the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula.  Helene will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula and to western Cuba.

Tropical Storm Helene could be a major hurricane when it approaches northern Florida on Thursday.  Helene will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Florida.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods.  Helene could also cause a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) along portions of the west coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Flamingo, Florida.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.