Tag Archives: Northwestern Bahamas

Nicole Strengthens to a Hurricane East of Florida

Former Tropical Storm Nicole strengthened to a hurricane east of Florida on Wednesday evening. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Nicole was located at latitude 26.6°N and longitude 78.5°W which put it about 100 miles (160 km) east of West Palm Beach, Florida. Nicole was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boca Raton to the Flagler/ Volusia County Line, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included West Palm Beach, Ft. Pierce, Melbourne and Daytona Beach. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Boca Raton to Hallandale Beach, Florida. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bimini. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida to the South Santee River, South Carolina. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Jacksonville, Florida and Charleston, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to Indian Pass, Florida. The Tropical Storm Warning included Tampa and St. Petersburg.

Former Tropical Storm Nicole intensified to a hurricane when it move over the warm water in the Gulf Stream Current on Wednesday evening. The eye of Hurricane Nicole was over Grand Bahama Island. The eye had a diameter of 30 miles (50 km). The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in the northern part of that ring. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Nicole. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease at the center of circulation.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Hurricane Nicole, but the overall circulation was very large. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 480 miles (775 km) from the center of Nicole’s circulation. Stations along the east coast of Florida reported sustained wind speeds of tropical storm force on Wednesday evening. Electricity outages were reported in several areas. Northeasterly winds were pushing water toward the coast and water level rises were reported from South Carolina to Florida. Large waves were causing significant beach erosion along the east coast of Florida.

Hurricane Nicole will continue to move through an environment that is favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Nicole will move over warm water in the Gulf Stream Current where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Nicole will extract more energy from the warmer water and it is likely to strengthen a little more during the next few hours.

Hurricane Nicole will move around the southwestern part of a surface high pressure system currently over the northeastern U.S. The high pressure system will steer Nicole toward the west-northwest during the next 12 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Nicole will make landfall on the east coast of Florida near or just to the north of West Palm Beach on Wednesday night. Nicole will be a hurricane when it reaches Florida. Hurricane Nicole will continue to bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the east coast of Florida. The winds in the northern side of Nicole will continue to blow water toward the coast of Florida and the Southeast U.S. Those winds could cause a storm surge of up to 6 feet (1.8 meters) in some locations. Large waves will keep breaking on the coast and they will cause significant beach erosion.

Hurricane Nicole will move northwest across Central Florida on Thursday. Nicole will weaken back to a tropical storm when it moves across Florida. Nicole could bring tropical storm force winds to the area around Orlando. The center of Nicole will be over northern Florida on Thursday evening. Widespread electricity outages could occur in central and northern Florida. Nicole will drop locally heavy rain over central and northern Florida, and southern Georgia. Heavy rain could cause fresh water floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Nicole Brings Wind and Rain to Northwestern Bahamas

Tropical Storm Nicole brought wind and rain to the Northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located at latitude 26.5°N and longitude 77.9°W which put it about 135 miles (220 km) east of West Palm Beach, Florida. Nicole was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boca Raton to the Flagler/ Volusia County Line, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included West Palm Beach, Ft. Pierce, Melbourne and Daytona Beach. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Boca Raton to Hallandale Beach, Florida. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bimini. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida to the South Santee River, South Carolina. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Jacksonville, Florida and Charleston, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to Indian Pass, Florida. The Tropical Storm Warning included Tampa and St. Petersburg.

The center of Tropical Storm Nicole passed over Great Abaco Island in the Northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday. The center of Nicole’s circulation was just to the southeast of Grand Bahama Island on Wednesday afternoon. The inner end of a rainband wrapped completely around the center of circulation. An eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) formed at the center of Tropical Storm Nicole. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Nicole. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease at the center of circulation.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Storm Nicole, but the overall circulation was very large. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 480 miles (775 km) from the center of Nicole’s circulation. Stations along the east coast of Florida reported sustained wind speeds of tropical storm force on Wednesday afternoon. Electricity outages were reported in several areas. Northeasterly winds were pushing water toward the coast and water level rises were reported from South Carolina to Florida. Large waves were causing significant beach erosion along the east coast of Florida.

Tropical Storm Nicole will move through an environment that is favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Nicole will move over warm water in the Gulf Stream Current where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weaker and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Nicole will extract more energy from the warmer water and it is likely to intensify to a hurricane during the next few hours.

Tropical Storm Nicole will move around the southwestern part of a surface high pressure system currently over the northeastern U.S. The high pressure system will steer Nicole toward the west-northwest during the next 12 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nicole will make landfall on the east coast of Florida near or just to the north of West Palm Beach on Wednesday night. Nicole is likely to be a hurricane when it reaches Florida. Nicole will continue to bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the east coast of Florida. The winds in the northern side of Nicole will continue to blow water toward the coast of Florida and the Southeast U.S. Those winds could cause a storm surge of up to 6 feet (1.8 meters) in some locations. Large waves will keep breaking on the coast and they will cause significant beach erosion.

Tropical Storm Nicole will move northwest across Central Florida on Thursday. Nicole could bring tropical storm force winds to the area around Orlando. The center of Nicole will be over northern Florida on Thursday evening. Widespread electricity outages could occur in central and northern Florida. Tropical Storm Nicole will drop locally heavy rain over central and northern Florida, and southern Georgia. Heavy rain could cause fresh water floods in some locations.

Nicole Transitions to Tropical Storm, Hurricane Warning Issued for Florida

Former Subtropical Storm Nicole completed a transition to a tropical storm on Tuesday morning and a Hurricane Warning was issued for a portion of the east coast of Florida. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located at latitude 27.8°N and longitude 72.7°W which put it about 460 miles (740 km) east of West Palm Beach, Florida. Nicole was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boca Raton to the Flagler/ Volusia County Line, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included West Palm Beach, Ft. Pierce, Melbourne and Daytona Beach. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini and Grand Bahama Island. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton, Florida. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Andros Island, New Providence and Eleuthera. A Tropcial Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Jacksonville. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hallandale Beach to Ocean Reef, Florida. The Tropical Storm Watch included Miami. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound to Savannah River, Georgia.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of former Subtropical Storm Nicole’s circulation. Thunderstorms near the center of circulation is one of the characteristics of a tropical storm. When the thunderstorms near the center persisted, the National Hurricane Center indicated that Nicole had complete a transition to a tropical storm. There was still a large area of tropical storm force winds around Nicole. Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 380 miles (615 km) in the northern side of Tropical Storm Nicole. Those winds were not entirely being produced by Nicole’s circulation. A large surface high pressure system was over the northeastern U.S. The high pressure system was interacting with the northern side of Nicole’s circulation to generate the large area of tropical storm force winds.

Tropical Storm Nicole will move through an environment that is favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Nicole will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weaker and the vertical wind shear will diminish. Tropical Storm Nicole is likely to intensify gradually during the next 12 hours. Nicole will move over warmer water when it moves over the Gulf Stream on Wednesday. Nicole will extract more energy from the warmer water and it is likely to strengthen more rapidly on Wednesday. Tropical Storm Nicole could intensify to a hurricane when it moves over the warmer water.

The surface high pressure system currently over the northeastern U.S. will block Tropical Storm Nicole from moving toward the north. The high pressure system will steer Nicole toward the west-southwest during the next 18 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nicole will reach the Northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday morning. Nicole will move toward the west-northwest on Wednesday when it reaches the southwestern part of the high pressure system. Nicole will reach the east coast of Florida on Wednesday night. Nicole could be a hurricane when it reaches Florida. Nicole is likely to bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Northwestern Bahamas and to central and northern Florida. The winds in the northern side of Nicole will blow water toward the coast of Florida and the Southeast U.S. Those winds will cause a storm surge and serious beach erosion when Nicole moves toward the coast.

Subtropical Storm Nicole Strengthens

Subtropical Storm Nicole strengthened on Tuesday morning as it moved over the Western Atlantic Ocean east of the Bahamas. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole was located at latitude 27.7°N and longitude 72.0°W which put it about 385 miles (615 km) east of the Northwestern Bahamas. Nicole was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini and Grand Bahama Island. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Hallandale Beach, Florida. The Hurricane Watch included Melbourne, West Palm Beach and Ft. Lauderdale. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Andros Island, New Providence and Eleuthera. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to Hallandale Beach, Florida. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Jacksonville and Daytona Beach. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hallandale Beach to Ocean Reef, Florida. The Tropical Storm Watch included Miami. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River, Florida.

Subtropical Storm Nicole began a transition to a tropical storm on Tuesday morning as it gradually strengthened. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Nicole’s circulation. Thunderstorms near the center of circulation is one of the characteristics of a tropical storm. There was still a large area of tropical storm force winds around Nicole, which is one of the characteristics of a subtropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out almost 400 miles (645 km) in the northern side of Subtropical Storm Nicole. Those winds were not entirely being produced by Nicole’s circulation. A large surface high pressure system was over the northeastern U.S. The high pressure system was interacting with the northern side of Nicole’s circulation to generate the large area of tropical storm force winds.

Subtropical Storm Nicole will move through an environment that is favorable for a transition to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. Nicole will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weaker and the vertical wind shear will diminish. Subtropical Storm Nicole is likely to complete the transition to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. Nicole will move over warmer water when it moves over the Gulf Stream on Wednesday. Nicole could intensify to a hurricane when it moves over the warmer water.

The surface high pressure system currently over the northeastern U.S. will block Subtropical Storm Nicole from moving toward the north. The high pressure system will steer Nicole toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Subtropical Storm Nicole will reach the Northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday morning. Nicole will move toward the west-northwest on Wednesday when it reaches the southwestern part of the high pressure system. Nicole will reach the coast of Southeast Florida on Wednesday night. Nicole could be a hurricane when it reaches Florida. Nicole is likely to bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Northwestern Bahamas and to central and northern Florida. The winds in the northern side of Nicole will blow water toward the coast of Florida and the Southeast U.S. Those winds will cause a storm surge and serious beach erosion when Nicole moves toward the coast.

Subtropical Storm Nicole Prompts Hurricane Watch for South Florida

A probable threat posed by Subtropical Storm Nicole prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Watch for part of South Florida on Monday. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole was located at latitude 26.4°N and longitude 70.1°W which put it about 465 miles (720 km) east of the Northwestern Bahamas. Nicole was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Hallandale Beach, Florida. The Hurricane Watch included Melbourne, West Palm Beach and Ft. Lauderdale. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to the Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida. The Tropical Storm Watch included Jacksonville and Daytona Beach. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hallandale Beach to Ocean Reef, Florida. The Tropical Storm Watch included Miami.

Subtropical Storm Nicole was churning over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Bahamas on Monday afternoon. The circulation around Subtropical Storm Nicole continued to exhibit a complex structure that is fairly common late in the hurricane season. The surface center of circulation was northeast of an upper level low east of Florida. The strongest winds near the surface were occurring far to the east of the surface center. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 275 miles (445 km) in the eastern side of Subtropical Storm Nicole. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Nicole. The winds in the southwestern quadrant of Nicole’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Subtropical Storm Nicole will move through an environment that is favorable for a gradual transition to a tropical storm during the next 48 hours. Nicole will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. The upper level low east of Florida will produce southerly winds that will blow across the top of the surface center of Subtropical Storm Nicole during the next 24 hours. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit intensification. Nicole will move into a region where the upper level winds are weaker on Tuesday and the wind shear will diminish. Subtropical Storm Nicole is likely to strengthen gradually during the next 24 hours. Nicole will move over warmer water when it moves over the Gulf Stream on Wednesday. Subtropical Storm Nicole is likely to make a transition to a tropical storm when it moves over the warmer water. Nicole could intensify to a hurricane when it moves over the warmer water.

The upper level low east of Florida will steer Subtropical Storm Nicole toward the northwest during the next 18 hours. A surface high pressure system currently over the Great Lakes will move over the East Coast of the U.S. and the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will block Nicole from moving toward the north. The high pressure system will steer Nicole toward the west-southwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. On its anticipated track Subtropical Storm Nicole could reach the Northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday morning. Nicole could reach the coast of Southeast Florida on Wednesday night. Nicole could be a hurricane when it reaches Florida. Nicole is likely to bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida. The winds in the northern side of Nicole will blow water toward the coast of Florida and the Southeast U.S. Those winds will cause a storm surge and serious beach erosion when Nicole moves toward the coast.

Subtropical Storm Nicole Forms East of the Bahamas

Subtropical Storm Nicole formed east of the Bahamas on Monday morning. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole was located at latitude 25.9°N and longitude 69.1°W which put it about 520 miles (835 km) east of the Northwestern Bahamas. Nicole was moving toward the north-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas.

A large low pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Bahamas exhibited more organization on Monday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Subtropical Storm Nicole. The circulation around Subtropical Storm Nicole exhibited a complex structure that is fairly common late in the hurricane season. The surface center of circulation was northeast of an upper level low east of Florida. The strongest winds near the surface were occurring far to the east of the surface center. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 275 miles (445 km) in the eastern side of Subtropical Storm Nicole. The winds in the western side of Nicole’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Subtropical Storm Nicole will move through an environment that is favorable for a gradual transition to a tropical storm. Nicole will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. The upper level low east of Florida will produce southerly winds that will blow across the top of the surface center of Subtropical Storm Nicole during the next 24 hours. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit intensification. Nicole will move into a region where the upper level winds are weaker on Tuesday and the wind shear will diminish. Subtropical Storm Nicole is likely to strengthen gradually during the next 24 hours. Nicole will move over warmer water when it moves over the Gulf Stream on Wednesday. Subtropical Storm Nicole is likely to make a transition to a tropical storm when it moves over the warmer water. Nicole could intensify to a hurricane when it moves over the warmer water.

The upper level low east of Florida will steer Subtropical Storm Nicole toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. A surface high pressure system currently over the Great Lakes will move over the East Coast of the U.S. and the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will block Nicole from moving toward the north. The high pressure system will steer Nicole toward the west-southwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. On its anticipated track Subtropical Storm Nicole could reach the Northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday morning. Nicole could reach the coast of Southeast Florida on Wednesday night. Nicole could be a hurricane when it reaches Florida. Nicole is likely to bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida. The winds in the northern side of Nicole will blow water toward the coast of Florida and the Southeast U.S. Those winds will cause a storm surge and serious beach erosion when Nicole moves toward the coast.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Drops Heavy Rain on South Florida

Potential Tropical Cyclone One dropped heavy rain on South Florida during Friday night and Saturday morning. There were reports of up to 10 inches of rain falling on locations in the area around Miami. The heavy rain caused urban and street flooding in some locations. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located at latitude 27.0°N and longitude 82.2°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) south-southwest of Ft. Myers, Florida. Potential Tropical Cyclone One was moving toward the northeast at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the coast of Florida from Bonita Beach on the west coast to the Volusia/Brevard County Line on the east coast and for all of the Florida Keys. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas and the Cuban provinces of Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas and the Isle of Youth.

Thunderstorms on the eastern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone One dropped heavy rain on parts of South Florida during Friday night and Saturday morning. A rain gauge at Biscayne Park measured 10.98 inches (27.9 cm) of rain. Media reports showed urban and street flooding in some locations.

The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone One remained poorly organized on Saturday morning. There was a broad area of low pressure over South Florida and the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The center of low pressure was located south-southwest of Naples, Florida. There was another circulation center located west-southwest of the Florida Keys. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring over South Florida and over the Northwestern Bahamas. The western half of Potential Tropical Cyclone One contained mainly showers and lower clouds. The strongest winds were occurring in thunderstorms in the eastern half of the low pressure system.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification when it moves over the Atlantic Ocean east of Florida on Sunday. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico and an upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea and western Atlantic Ocean will interact to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical shear will somewhat inhibit intensification. However, the upper level ridge will also enhance the upper level divergence over Potential Tropical Cyclone One. More upper level divergence would cause the surface pressure to decrease. Potential Tropical Cyclone One could strengthen to a tropical storm when it moves over the warm water in the Gulf Stream on Sunday.

The upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico and the upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea and western Atlantic Ocean will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone One toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move across South Florida on Saturday. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will bring continue to drop heavy rain on parts of South Florida and the Northwestern Bahamas during Saturday. More heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Produces Tropical Storm Force Winds

Potential Tropical Cyclone One produced tropical storm force winds over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Friday morning. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for South Florida, all of the Florida Keys, western Cuba and the Northwestern Bahamas. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located at latitude 22.4°N and longitude 86.8°W which put it about 420 miles (675 km) southwest of Ft. Myers, Florida. Potential Tropical Cyclone One was moving toward the northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the coast of Florida from Longboat Key on the west coast to the Volusia/Brevard County Line on the east coast and for all of the Florida Keys. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas and the Cuban provinces of Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas and the Isle of Youth.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance flight found that Potential Tropical Cyclone One was producing winds to tropical storm force over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Friday morning. The distribution of thunderstorms around Potential Tropical Cyclone One was asymmetrical due to vertical wind shear caused by an upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in a band in the eastern half of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Those thunderstorms generated upper level divergence that pumped mass to the east of the system. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the eastern half of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. The winds in the western half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. The upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico and an upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea will interact to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical shear will somewhat inhibit intensification. However, the upper level ridge will also enhance the upper level divergence over Potential Tropical Cyclone One. More upper level divergence would cause the surface pressure to decrease. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico and the upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone One toward the northeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone One will approach Southwest Florida on Saturday morning. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to South Florida, the Florida Keys, western Cuba and the Northwestern Bahamas. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Dangerous Hurricane Dorian Nears Northwestern Bahamas

Dangerous Hurricane Dorian neared the Northwestern Bahamas on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Dorian was located at latitude 26.3°N and longitude 75.1°W which put it about 125 miles (200 km) east of Great Abaco and about 310 miles (500 km) east of West Palm Beach, Florida.  Dorian was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h)  and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 940 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Andros Island.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet, Florida.

Hurricane Dorian remains a very dangerous, well organized storm.  Dorian has maintained Category 4 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Scale for 24 hours.  A circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) was clearly visible on conventional and microwave satellite imagery.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The maximum sustained wind speed at the surface was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and data from dropsondes indicated that the wind was stronger a few hundred feet above the surface.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Dorian.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

Winds to hurricane force extended out about 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Hurricane Dorian.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 105 miles (170 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Dorian was 33.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.7and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 45.0.  Hurricane Dorian is capable of causing regional significant damage.

Hurricane Dorian will remain in an environment capable of supporting a very strong hurricane for several more days.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  There will be a potential for Hurricane Dorian to strengthen to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At some point eyewall replacement cycles are likely to cause fluctuations in intensity.

Hurricane Dorian will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system during the next 24 to 48 hours.  The high will steer Dorian slowly toward the west.  Hurricane Dorian could move very slowly when it reaches the western end of the ridge.  Eventually, Dorian will turn toward the north when it moves around the end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Dorian will reach the Northwestern Bahamas by Sunday evening.  The core of Dorian will move very close to the Abacos and Grand Bahama Island.  Hurricane Dorian could cause significant wind damage.  Dorian could also produce a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) in places where the wind blows water toward the shoreline.