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Tropical Storm Warning Issued for Jamaica, Hurricane Watch for Cayman Islands

The threat posed by a low pressure system over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for Jamaica and a Hurricane Watch for the Cayman Islands on Sunday afternoon.  The low pressure system was designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen by the U.S. National Hurricane Center.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen was located at latitude 13.0°N and longitude 77.1°W which put the center about 345 miles (555 km) south of Kingston, Jamaica.  The low pressure system was moving toward the northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated a low pressure system over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea on Sunday afternoon.  The aircraft found that there was a distinct low low level center of circulation in the low pressure system.  More thunderstorms were forming near the center of the low pressure system.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were starting to revolve around the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen.  Storms near the center of the low pressure system began to generate upper level divergence.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the low pressure system.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen will intensify during the next 24 hours.  It is likely to become a tropical storm on Monday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen will reach Jamaica on Monday night.  It could reach the Cayman Islands on Tuesday afternoon.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen will bring strong winds and heavy rain Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Subtropical Storm Patty moved east of the Azores.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located at latitude 37.3°N and longitude 22.3°W which put the center about 280 miles (450 km) east-southeast of Lajes, Azores.  Patty was moving toward the east at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Subtropical Storm Patty Moves Across the Azores

Subtropical Storm Patty was moving across the Azores on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located at latitude 37.9°N and longitude 27.8°W which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) south-southwest of Lajes, Azores.  Patty was moving toward the east at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Azores.

Subtropical Storm Patty strengthened a little as it approached the Azores on Saturday.  However, Patty appeared to be starting to weaken on Saturday night.  The distribution of thunderstorms started to look a little more asymmetrical.  The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northeastern part of Patty’s circulation.  Bands in the southern and western parts of Subtropical Storm Patty consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Subtropical Storm Patty remained large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 205 miles (325 km) in the southern side of Patty’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the northern side of Subtropical Storm Patty.

Subtropical Storm Patty will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Patty will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 21°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level low.  The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Patty’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Subtropical Storm Patty is likely to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough will steer Subtropical Storm Patty toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Subtropical Storm Patty will continue to move across the Azores during the next 12 hours,  Patty will move east of the Azores later on Sunday.

Subtropical Storm Patty will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Azores during Saturday night and Sunday.  Strong winds could cause localized damage and electricity outages.

 

Subtropical Storm Patty Forms, Tropical Storm Warning Issued for Azores

Subtropical Storm Patty formed over the North Atlantic Ocean on Saturday morning and a Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the Azores. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located at latitude 39.9°N and longitude 34.4°W which put the center about 426 miles (675 km) west-northwest of the Azores.  Patty was moving toward the east-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Azores.

A low pressure system at the center of an old occluded extratratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic Ocean was designated as Subtropical Storm Patty by the U.S. National Hurricane Center on Saturday morning.  The circulation around Subtropical Storm Patty was symmetrical.  A clear area like an eye was at the center of Patty’s circulation.  The clear area was surrounded by a ring of showers and low topped thunderstorms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Subtropical Storm Patty.

The circulation around Subtropical Storm Patty was large, since Patty formed at the center of an old occluded extratropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 205 miles (330 km) in the southern side of Patty’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the northern side of Subtropical Storm Patty.

Subtropical Storm Patty will move through an environment only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Patty will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 21°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level low that was part of the old occluded extratropical cyclone.  The upper level low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Patty’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Subtropical Storm Patty could intensify a little during the next 24 hours, but it is likely to start to weaken on Sunday.

The upper level trough will steer Subtropical Storm Patty toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Subtropical Storm Patty will reach the western Azores on Saturday night.  Patty will move across the Azores on Sunday.

Subtropical Storm Patty will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Azores during Saturday night and Sunday.  Strong winds could cause localized damage and electricity outages.

Tropical Storm Philippe Brings Gusty Winds to Bermuda

Tropical Storm Philippe brought gusty winds to Bermuda on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located at latitude 30.7°N and longitude 64.6°W which put it about 110 miles (185 km) south of Bermuda. Philippe was moving toward the north-northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Philippe brought gusty winds to Bermuda on Friday morning. A weather station at L.F. Wade International Airport (TXKF) reported a sustained wind speed of 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and a gust of 56 m.p.h. (91 km/h). A weather station at an elevated location near the Bermuda National Museum reported a sustained wind speed of 46 m.p.h. (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 57 m.p.h. (91 km/h). Philippe produce intermittent rain showers in Bermuda, but the heaviest rain passed to the east of Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Philippe made a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Friday morning. The circulation former Tropical Storm Philippe combined with a frontal system near Bermuda. A warm front extended to the east of the center of circulation and a cold front trailed south of the center. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the eastern side of former Tropical Storm Philippe. The winds in the western side of the extratropical cyclone were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Former Tropical Storm Philippe will move between a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean and an upper level trough over the Great Lakes. The high pressure system and the upper level trough will steer the extratropical cyclone toward the north during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track, former Tropical Storm Philippe will affect the Northeast U.S. and the Canadian Maritimes during the weekend. The extratropical cyclone could produce locally heavy rain in some places. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Gusty winds could knock down trees and localized outages of electricity are possible.

Philippe Prompts Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda

The potential effects of Tropical Storm Philippe prompted Bermuda to issue a Tropical Storm Warning. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 65.9°W which put it about 675 miles (1085 km) south of Bermuda. Philippe was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Philippe weakened a little more on Wednesday. An upper level trough east of Florida produced strong southwesterly winds that blew across the top of Philippe’s circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear. The strong upper level winds also blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Philippe. A few thunderstorms were able to develop in the southeastern quadrant of Philippe’s circulation. However, most of the bands revolving around the center of Philippe’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Philippe were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move through a region that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Philippe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level trough east of Florida will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will prevent Tropical Storm Philippe from intensifying during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Philippe toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Philippe will move closer to Bermuda. Philippe could reach Bermuda on Friday.

Philippe Weakens North of the Virgin Islands

Tropical Storm Philippe weakened north of the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located at latitude 19.0°N and longitude 64.4°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) northeast of St. Thomas. Philippe was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the British Virgin Islands.

Tropical Storm Philippe weakened north of the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. An upper level ridge over the eastern Caribbean Sea produced strong westerly winds that blew across the top of Philippe’s circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear. The strong upper level winds blew the tops off of most of the thunderstorms in the southeastern part of Tropical Storm Philippe. Most of the bands revolving around the center of Philippe’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (275 km) in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Philippe were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move through a region that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Philippe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level ridge over the eastern Caribbean Sea will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear will likely cause Tropical Storm Philippe to weaken more during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Philippe toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Philippe will move away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Bands in the southeastern part of Tropical Storm Philippe did drop heavy rain over the Northern Leeward Islands during Monday night and Tuesday morning. Heavy rain fell on parts of Guadeloupe, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla. There were reports of flash floods in some locations.

Philippe Prompts Tropical Storm Warning for Barbuda

The proximity of Tropical Storm Philippe prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for Barbuda. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Antigua. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 60.7°W which put it about 80 miles (130 km) east-southeast of Barbuda. Philippe was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Barbuda. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Antigua.

The center of Tropical Storm Philippe moved closer to Barbuda on Monday morning. The circulation around Philippe did not change much since Sunday night. An upper level ridge over the eastern Caribbean Sea continued to produce northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Philippe’s circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear . The vertical wind shear caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Philippe to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Philippe’s circulation. Bands near the center of Tropical Storm Philippe and in the other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The distribution of wind speeds was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (275 km) in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Philippe were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move through a region that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Philippe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level ridge over the eastern Caribbean Sea will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear is likely to prevent intensification of Tropical Storm Philippe during the next 12 hours. Philippe could move into a region where the upper level winds are weaker on Tuesday. If the vertical wind shear decreases, then Tropical Storm Philippe could start to intensify.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Philippe toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center Tropical Storm Philippe will pass near Barbuda during Monday night. The strongest winds in Philippe’s circulation are likely to pass east of Barbuda. Winds to tropical storm force could affect Barbuda, if the center moves close enough to the island. The winds in Barbuda and Antigua will blow from the south after Tropical Storm Philippe moves north of the islands. A band of heavier rain could pass over Barbuda and Antigua on Tuesday. Heavier rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Philippe Prompts Watches for Antigua and Barbuda

A potential risk caused by Tropical Storm Philippe prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches for Antigua and Barbuda on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 59.1°W which put it about 155 miles (245 km) east of Guadeloupe. Philippe was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Antigua and Barbuda.

Tropical Storm Philippe did not move much on Sunday. The circulation around Philippe also did not change much on Sunday. An upper level ridge over the eastern Caribbean Sea continued to produce northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Philippe’s circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Philippe to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Philippe’s circulation. Bands near the center of Tropical Storm Philippe and in the other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The distribution of wind speeds was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (275 km) in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Philippe were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move through a region that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Philippe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level ridge over the eastern Caribbean Sea will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear is likely to prevent intensification of Tropical Storm Philippe on Monday.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Philippe toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Philippe could move a little closer to Antigua and Barbuda on Monday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, former Tropical Storm Rina weakened to a tropical depression northeast of the Leeward Islands. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Rina was located at latitude 27.1°N and longitude 55.4°W which put it about 785 miles (1265 km) northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands. Rina was moving toward the north at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

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Tropical Storm Philippe Drifts East of the Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Philippe drifted over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Leeward Islands on Saturday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 57.0°W which put it about 430 miles (690 km) east-southeast of the Northern Leeward Islands. Philippe was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Storm Philippe continued to drift slowly east of the Leeward Islands on Saturday. The circulation around Tropical Storm Philippe did not change much on Saturday. An upper level ridge over the eastern Caribbean Sea produced northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Philippe’s circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Philippe to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Philippe’s circulation. Bands near the center of Tropical Storm Philippe and in the other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The distribution of wind speeds was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western side of Tropical Storm Philippe.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move through a region that will become marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Philippe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level ridge will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear during the first half of Sunday. The upper level winds could weaken later on Sunday. If the upper level winds weaken, then the strong wind shear will decrease and Tropical Storm Philippe could start to intensify.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Philippe toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Philippe could move a little closer to the Northern Leeward Islands on Sunday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Rina weakened northeast of Tropical Storm Philippe. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Rina was located at latitude 23.5°N and longitude 52.8°W which put it about 760 miles (1220 km) east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands. Rina was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Philippe Meanders East of the Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Philippe meandered over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Leeward Islands on Friday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 55.8°W which put it about 480 miles (775 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Philippe was moving toward the southwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Rina moved around formed the northeastern periphery of Tropical Storm Philippe on Friday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Rina was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 48.8°W which put it about 945 miles (1520 km) east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands. Rina was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

The circulations around Tropical Storm Philippe and Tropical Storm Rina continued to interact on Friday. Philippe and Rina revolved around a point between the centers of the two tropical storms in a motion called the Fujiwhara effect. An upper level trough over the Atlantic Ocean east of Bermuda produced westerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Philippe’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Philippe to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. Bands near the center of Tropical Storm Philippe and in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The distribution of wind speeds was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Philippe were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Philippe was also affecting Tropical Storm Rina. Upper level divergence from Philippe was adding to the westerly winds blowing toward the top of Rina’ circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear in Tropical Storm Rina. The wind shear also caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Rina to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Rina were in bands in the southern and eastern parts of Rina’s circulation. Bands in the northern and western parts of Rina consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) in the eastern part of Rina’s circulation. Winds in the western side of Rina were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move through a region unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Philippe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level trough east of Bermuda will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear is likely to keep Tropical Storm Philippe from intensifying on Saturday.

The interaction between Tropical Storm Philippe and Tropical Storm Rina will continue on Saturday. Philippe and Rina will continue their counterclockwise loop around a point in between the two tropical storms. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Philippe will move slowly toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. Tropical Storm Rina is forecast to move toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.