Tag Archives: Northern Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Jerry Drops Heavy Rain on Northern Leeward Islands

Although it was not very well organized, bands in the southeastern part of Tropical Storm Jerry dropped heavy rain on some of the Northern Leeward Islands on Friday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located at latitude 19.8°N and longitude 63.3°W which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) north of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Jerry was moving toward the northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for St. Barthelemy, St. Martin, and Sint Maarten.

Tropical Storm Jerry weakened on Thursday night.  The circulation around Jerry was not very well organized on Friday morning.  Strong easterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere continued to push the bottom part of Tropical Storm Jerry to the northwest of the middle and upper level circulations.  Bands near the center of the low level circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The bands in the western and northern sides of Jerry’s circulation also consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Tropical Storm Jerry.  Some of those thunderstorms were dropping heavy rain on the Northern Leeward Islands.

The strongest winds were occurring in the bands of thunderstorms in the southeastern part of Tropical Storm Jerry.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) in the eastern side of Jerry’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Tropical Storm Jerry.  The winds in the southwestern quadrant of Jerry were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Jerry will move through an environment that will be mostly unfavorable for development during the next 24 hours.  Jerry will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level low that is north of Puerto Rico.  The upper level low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Jerry’s circulation.  Since strong easterly winds are blowing in the lower levels of the atmosphere, there will continue to be strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Jerry could weaken during the next 24 hours because of the strong vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear could decrease during the weekend, when Jerry moves into a region where the winds in the lower level will blow from the south.

Tropical Storm Jerry will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Jerry toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Jerry will move away from the Northern Leeward Islands on Friday.

Tropical Storm Jerry will continue to drop heavy rain on some of the Northern Leeward Islands on Friday.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Subtropical Storm Karen formed at the center of an occluded extratropical cyclone north of the Azores.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located at latitude 45.3°N and longitude 32.1°W which put the center about 570 miles (915 km) north-northwest of the Azores.  Karen was moving toward the northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Storm Jerry Nears Northern Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Jerry neared the Northern Leeward Islands on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 60.6°W which put the center about 175 miles (285 km) east-southeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Jerry was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Anguilla, Barbuda, St. Barthelemy, St. Martin, Sint Maarten, and Guadeloupe.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Antigua, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Saba, and St. Eustatius.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Jerry was still not well organized on Thursday afternoon.  Strong easterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere continued to push the bottom part of Tropical Storm Jerry to the northwest of the middle and upper level circulations.  Bands near the center of the low level circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The bands in the western and northern sides of Jerry’s circulation also consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Tropical Storm Jerry.

The strongest winds were occurring in the bands of thunderstorms in the southeastern part of Tropical Storm Jerry.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the eastern side of Jerry’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Tropical Storm Jerry.  The winds in the southwestern quadrant of Jerry were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Jerry will move through an environment that will be mostly unfavorable for development during the next 24 hours.  Jerry will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level low that is north of Puerto Rico.  The upper level low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Jerry’s circulation.  Since strong easterly winds are blowing in the lower levels of the atmosphere, there will continue to be strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Jerry could even weaken during the next 24 hours because of the strong vertical wind shear.

Tropical Storm Jerry will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Jerry toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Jerry will pass near the Northern Leeward Islands on Thursday night.

Tropical Storm Jerry will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Northern Leeward Islands.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Since the strongest winds are in the eastern part of Tropical Storm Jerry, the strongest winds may not hit the Northern Leeward Islands.

Tropical Storm Jerry Speeds Toward Northern Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Jerry was speeding toward the Northern Leeward Islands on Wednesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 54.7°W which put the center about 605 miles (970 km) east-southeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Jerry was moving toward the west-northwest at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Barthelemy, St, Kitts, Nevis, St. Martin, Sint Maarten, Montserrat, and Guadeloupe.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Jerry was not well organized on Wednesday afternoon.  Strong easterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere pushed the bottom part of Tropical Storm Jerry to the west of the middle and upper level circulations.  Bands near the center of the low level circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The bands in the western side of Jerry’s circulation also consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were still developing in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Jerry.

The strongest winds were occurring in the bands of thunderstorms in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Jerry.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the eastern side of Jerry’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Tropical Storm Jerry.  The winds in the southwestern quadrant of Jerry were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Jerry will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for development during the next 24 hours.  Jerry will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Jerry’s circulation.  However, the stronger easterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will continue to cause vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Jerry could intensify during the next 24 hours if the winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere weaken.

Tropical Storm Jerry will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Jerry quickly toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Jerry will approach the Northern Leeward Islands on Thursday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Jerry is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Northern Leeward Islands on Thursday night and Friday.

Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Issued for Bahamas

Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings were issued for parts of the Bahamas on Friday afternoon because of a storm developing near the western end of Cuba.  The U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the developing storm as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was located at latitude 20.9°N and longitude 74.6°W which put the center about 55 miles (90 km) north-northwest of the eastern end of Cuba.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including Eleuthera, New Providence, the Abacos, the Berry Islands and Grand Bahama Island.

A surface low pressure system started to form on Friday afternoon in the northern end of a tropical wave near the eastern tip of Cuba.  The circulation around the low pressure system was still in the early stages of organization.  More thunderstorms started to develop near the center of the low pressure system.  Other thunderstorms started to form into bands that will begin to revolve around the center of circulation.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move through an environment that will be favorable for the formation of a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge that is east of the Bahamas.  The upper level ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is likely to develop into a tropical storm on Saturday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is east of the Bahamas.  The high pressure system will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move across the Central Bahamas on Saturday night.  It will move across the Northwestern Bahamas on Sunday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring strengthening winds and locally heavy rain to the Central Bahamas and to the Northwestern Bahamas.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Humberto rapidly intensified to a major hurricane northeast of the Leeward Islands and former Hurricane Gabrielle sped east of the Azores.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Humberto was located at latitude 22.3°N and longitude 58.1°W which put the center about 430 miles (690 km) northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Humberto was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (215 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of former Hurricane Gabrielle was located at latitude 40.0°N and longitude 22.8°W which put the center about 245 miles (395 km) east-northeast of Lajes Air Base, the Azores.  Gabrielle was moving toward the east-northeast at 31 m.p.h. (50 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Gabrielle Brings Wind and Rain to the Azores

Former Hurricane Gabrielle brought wind and rain to the Azores on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of former Hurricane Gabrielle was located at latitude 37.8°N and longitude 29.3°W which put the center about 65 miles (105 km) south-southwest of Faial Island, the Azores.  Gabrielle was moving toward the east-northeast at 29 m.p.h. (46 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for all of the Azores.

Former Hurricane Gabrielle made a transition to a strong extratropical cyclone on Thursday.  Gabrielle moved over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 23°C.  It moved under the southern extent of the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes.  Those upper level westerly winds cause strong vertical wind shear.  The cooler Sear Surface temperatures and strong vertical wind shear caused former Hurricane Gabrielle to make the transition to a strong extratropical cyclone.

The structure of former Hurricane Gabrielle changed as Gabrielle made the transition to an extratropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Gabrielle’s circulation.

Former Hurricane Gabrielle will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rain in the Azores on Friday.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

The westerly winds in the middle latitudes will steer former Hurricane Gabrielle quickly toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Gabrielle could reach Portugal on Sunday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Humberto strengthened northeast of the Leeward Islands.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was located at latitude 22.2°N and longitude 57.1°W which put the center about 475 miles (765 km) northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Humberto was moving toward the northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Spins over the Central Atlantic

Tropical Storm Gabrielle was spinning over the Central Atlantic Ocean on Thursday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located at latitude 20.8°N and longitude 52.7°W which put the center about 700 miles (1125 km) east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Gabrielle was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The appearance of Tropical Storm Gabrielle did not change much on Thursday.  Gabrielle consisted of bands of showers and low clouds revolving around the center of circulation for much of Thursday.  New thunderstorms began to develop late Thursday afternoon in bands northeast of the center of Gabrielle’s circulation.  The bands in the other parts of Tropical Storm Gabrielle still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Gabrielle was very asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 290 miles (465 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Gabrielle’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the southeastern and northwestern quadrants of Gabrielle.  The winds in the southwestern quadrant of Tropical Storm Gabrielle were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle will move through an environment that will be only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gabrielle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, an upper level low that is northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands will produce strong southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Gabrielle’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear will prevent significant intensification during the next 24 hours.  The wind shear is forecast to decrease during the weekend and Tropical Storm Gabrielle is likely to intensify when the shear decreases.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Gabrielle toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Gabrielle will pass northeast of the Leeward Islands on Friday night.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forms East of Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Gabrielle formed over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Leeward Islands on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 46.6°W which put the center about 1085 miles (1745 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Gabrielle was moving toward the north-northwest at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A low pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Northern Leeward Islands strengthened on Tuesday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Gabrielle.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Gabrielle was poorly organized on Thursday morning.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands east of the center of Gabrielle’s circulation.  Bands in the western part of Tropical Storm Gabrielle consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  An upper level low northeast of the Leeward Islands was producing strong southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Gabrielle’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Gabrielle.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Gabrielle was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the eastern side of Gabrielle’s circulation.  The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Gabrielle were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle will move through an environment that will be only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gabrielle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.   However, the upper level low that is northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear will prevent significant intensification during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Gabrielle toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Gabrielle will pass northeast of the Leeward Islands later this week.

 

Erin Strengthens to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Erin strengthened to a hurricane east of the Northern Leeward Islands on Friday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Erin was located at latitude 18.2°N and longitude 56.1°W which put the center about 460 miles (740 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Erin was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Anguilla, Barbuda, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten.

Former Tropical Storm Erin strengthened to a hurricane east of the Northern Leeward Islands on Friday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Erin’s circulation.  A small eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) formed at the center of Hurricane Erin.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Erin’s circulation.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of Hurricane Erin.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Erin’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Hurricane Erin.

Hurricane Erin will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Erin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Erin’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east, but winds will be stronger in the upper troposphere.  So, there will be some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will slightly inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Hurricane Erin will intensity during the next 24 hours.  Erin is likely to strengthen to a major hurricane during the weekend.

Hurricane Erin will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Erin toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Storm Erin will pass north of the Northern Leeward Islands on Saturday.

Bands in the southern side of Hurricane Erin are likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Northern Leeward Islands.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Bands feeding into the southern side of Hurricane Erin could also drop heavy rain on Puerto Rico.

A Flood Watch is in effect for Puerto Rico.

Erin Prompts Tropical Storm Watches for Northern Leeward Islands

The potential risk posed by Tropical Storm Erin prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches for the Northern Leeward Islands on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 51.2°W which put the center about 790 miles (1270 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Erin was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Anguilla, Barbuda, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten.

Tropical Storm Erin continued to strengthen gradually on Thursday.  Even though Tropical Storm Erin was strengthening, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring mainly in bands in the western side of Erin’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Erin consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Erin generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Erin is small,  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Erin’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Erin will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Erin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Erin’s circulation.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east, but winds will be stronger in the upper troposphere.  So, there will be some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Erin will intensity during the next 24 hours.  Erin is likely to strengthen to a hurricane on Friday.

Tropical Storm Erin will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Erin toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Erin will move toward the Northern Leeward Islands.  Erin could approach the Northern Leeward Islands on Friday night.

Tropical Storm Erin is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Northern Leeward Islands.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Erin Strengthens a Little

Tropical Storm Erin strengthened a little on Wednesday as it moved over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Northern Leeward Islands.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located at latitude 16.3°N and longitude 46.6°W which put the center about 1095 miles (17635 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Erin was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Erin strengthened a little on Wednesday.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Erin’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Erin.  Bands in the eastern side of Erin’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Erin generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Storm Erin.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northern half of Erin’s circulation.  The winds in the southern side of Tropical Storm Erin were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Erin will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Erin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Erin’s circulation.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east, but winds will be stronger in the upper troposphere.  So, there will be some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Erin will intensity during the next 24 hours.  Erin will move over warmer water on Friday.  Erin is likely to strengthen to a hurricane on by Friday evening.

Tropical Storm Erin will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Erin toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Erin will move toward the Northern Leeward Islands.  Erin could approach the Northern Leeward Islands on Friday night.