Tag Archives: Grand Bahama Island

Tropical Storm Imelda Strengthens

Tropical Storm Imelda strengthened on Monday morning as it moved north of the Bahamas.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was located at latitude 26.9°N and longitude 77.1°W which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) north of Great Abaco Island, Bahamas.  Imelda was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including Eleuthera, the Abacos, and Grand Bahama Island.

Tropical Storm Imelda strengthened on Monday morning.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Imelda’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Imelda.  Storms near the center of Imelda generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of Tropical Storm Imelda.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the eastern side of Imelda’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western side of Tropical Storm Imelda.

Tropical Storm Imelda will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Imelda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is over the Southeast U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Imelda”s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Imelda will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Imelda could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Storm Imelda will intensify to a hurricane by Tuesday.

The upper level trough west of Florida will steer Tropical Storm Imelda toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Imelda will remain east of South Florida.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Humberto was completing an eyewall replacement cycle.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Humberto was located at latitude 28.0°N and longitude 67.6°W which put the center about 340 miles (550 km) south-southwest of Bermuda.  Humberto was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 940 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

 

Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Imelda

Former Tropical Depression Nine strengthened to Tropical Storm Imelda over the Bahamas on Sunday afternoon.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was located at latitude 23.9°N and longitude 77.3°W which put the center about 105 miles (165 km) south of Nassau, Bahamas.   Imelda was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including Eleuthera, New Providence, the Abacos, the Berry Islands, Andros Island, and Grand Bahama Island.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane found on Sunday afternoon that former Tropical Depression Nine had strengthened.  Based on data collected by the reconnaissance plane, the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Imelda.

More thunderstorms were forming near the center of Tropical Storm Imelda on Sunday afternoon.  However, the distribution of thunderstorms in Imelda was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring mainly in bands in the eastern side of Imelda’s circulation.  Bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Imelda consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Imelda.

Tropical Storm Imelda will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Imelda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.   It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is west of Florida.  The upper level trough will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Imelda”s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Imelda will intensify during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough west of Florida will steer Tropical Storm Imelda toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Imelda will move across the Central and Northwestern Bahamas.

Tropical Storm Imelda will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the Central and Northwestern Bahamas.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, powerful Hurricane Humberto was passing south of Bermuda.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Humberto was located at latitude 24.6°N and longitude 64.3°W which put the center about 535 miles (855 km) south of Bermuda.  Humberto was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 934 mb.

Hurricane Humberto Intensifies to Cat. 5

Hurricane Humberto intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale south of Bermuda on Saturday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Humberto was located at latitude 22.9°N and longitude 61.1°W which put the center about 685 miles (1105 km) south-southeast of Bermuda.  Humberto was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 925 mb.

Hurricane Humberto intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday afternoon.  A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Humberto’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Humberto.  Storms near the center of Humberto generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Humberto was very symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Humberto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Hurricane Humberto.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Humberto is 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 10.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 45.7.  Hurricane Humberto is similar in intensity to Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.  Humberto is slightly smaller than Michael was.

Hurricane Humberto will move through an environment favorable for an intense hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Humberto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and the will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Humberto could intensify during the next 24 hours.  However, the inner end of a rainband is likely to wrap around the existing eye and eyewall.  The formation of concentric eyewalls would start an eyewall replacement cycle.  An eyewall replacement cycle would cause Humberto to weaken, at least temporarily.

Hurricane Humberto will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Humberto toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Humberto will pass far to the south of Bermuda on Sunday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Depression Nine formed north of eastern Cuba.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located at latitude 22.2°N and longitude 76.5°W which put the center about 215 miles (345 km) south-southeast of Nassau,, Bahamas.  The tropical depression was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including Eleuthera, New Providence, the Abacos, the Berry Islands, Andros Island, and Grand Bahama Island.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida.

Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Issued for Bahamas

Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings were issued for parts of the Bahamas on Friday afternoon because of a storm developing near the western end of Cuba.  The U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the developing storm as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was located at latitude 20.9°N and longitude 74.6°W which put the center about 55 miles (90 km) north-northwest of the eastern end of Cuba.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including Eleuthera, New Providence, the Abacos, the Berry Islands and Grand Bahama Island.

A surface low pressure system started to form on Friday afternoon in the northern end of a tropical wave near the eastern tip of Cuba.  The circulation around the low pressure system was still in the early stages of organization.  More thunderstorms started to develop near the center of the low pressure system.  Other thunderstorms started to form into bands that will begin to revolve around the center of circulation.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move through an environment that will be favorable for the formation of a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge that is east of the Bahamas.  The upper level ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is likely to develop into a tropical storm on Saturday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is east of the Bahamas.  The high pressure system will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move across the Central Bahamas on Saturday night.  It will move across the Northwestern Bahamas on Sunday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring strengthening winds and locally heavy rain to the Central Bahamas and to the Northwestern Bahamas.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Humberto rapidly intensified to a major hurricane northeast of the Leeward Islands and former Hurricane Gabrielle sped east of the Azores.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Humberto was located at latitude 22.3°N and longitude 58.1°W which put the center about 430 miles (690 km) northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Humberto was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (215 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of former Hurricane Gabrielle was located at latitude 40.0°N and longitude 22.8°W which put the center about 245 miles (395 km) east-northeast of Lajes Air Base, the Azores.  Gabrielle was moving toward the east-northeast at 31 m.p.h. (50 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Hurricane Milton Moves Away From Florida

Hurricane Milton moved eastward over the Atlantic Ocean away from Florida on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Milton was located at latitude 29.1°N and longitude 78.5°W which put the center about 135 miles (220 km) east-northeast of Cape Canaveral, Florida.  Milton was moving toward the east-northeast at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Edisto Beach, South Carolina.   A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the extreme Northwestern Bahamas including Grand Bahama Island, and the Abacos.

Hurricane Milton was making a transition to an extratropical cyclone as it moved away to the east of Florida on Thursday morning.  A warm front was forming in the eastern part of Milton’s circulation.  A cold front was forming to the south of the center of Hurricane Milton.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and eastern sides of Milton’s circulation.  Bands in the southern and western parts of Hurricane Milton consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The transition to an extratropical cyclone was also causing the distribution of wind speeds around Hurricane Milton to become more asymmetrical.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Milton’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 310 miles (500 km) from the center of Hurricane Milton.

Hurricane Milton will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Milton will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce strong westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Milton’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Milton to complete a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Milton toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Milton will move quickly away from Florida.  Milton could affect Bermuda on Friday as an extratropical cyclone.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Leslie started to weaken.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Leslie was located at latitude 23.2°N and longitude 50.4°W which put the center about 1715 miles (2765 km) west-southeast of the Azores.  Leslie was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Hurricane Milton Brings Strong Winds and Heavy Rain to Florida

Hurricane Milton brought strong winds and heavy rain to Florida on Wednesday night.  At 11:00 P.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Milton was located at latitude 27.6°N and longitude 82.0°W which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) southwest of Orlando, Florida.  Milton was moving toward the east-northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Hurricane Warning includes Tampa Bay.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Martin/Palm Beach County Line, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Bonita Beach, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the St. Lucie/Martin County Line, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to Edisto Beach, South Carolina.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the extreme Northwestern Bahamas including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos and Bimini.

The center of Hurricane Milton made landfall on the west coast of Florida just south of Tampa on Wednesday evening.  Milton was a major hurricane at the time of landfall.  The heaviest rain fell just to the north of the center of Hurricane Milton.  The Albert Whitted Airport in St, Petersburg reported 14.83 inches (377 mm) of rain.  The Tampa International Airport reported 8.53 (217 mm) of rain.

A Flash Flood Emergency was in effect for the Tampa/St. Petersburg area.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northwestern part of Hurricane Milton.  The Albert Whitted Airport in St. Petersburg reported a sustained wind speed of 61 m.p.h. (98 km/h) and a wind gust of 101 m.p.h. (163 km/h).  The Tampa International Airport reported a sustained wind speed of 52 m.p.h. (84 km/h) and a wind gust of 85 m.p.h. (137 km/h).  The Sarasota-Bradenton Airport reported a sustained wind speed of 69 m.p.h. (111 km/h) and a wind gust of 102 m.p.h. (171 km/h).

There were reports of almost two million customers without electricity.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Milton increased as Milton approached the west coast of Florida.  Winds to hurricane force extend out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Milton’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of Hurricane Milton.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Milton is 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 16.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 34.6.  Hurricane Milton is almost as strong as Hurricane Sally was when Sally hit Alabama in 2020.  Milton is larger than Sally was.

Hurricane Milton will move around the southern part of an upper level trough over the eastern U.S.  The upper level trough will steer Milton toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Milton will move steadily across Central Florida.  Milton will move over the Atlantic Ocean east of Cape Canaveral on Thursday morning.

Even though Hurricane Milton  will weaken as it moves across Central Florida, Milton will continue bring strong winds and heavy rain to the region.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for many of the counties in Central Florida.  Those Hurricane Warnings include Orlando.

.  Heavy rains will cause floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for much of the Florida Peninsula.

Milton will also continue to produce a storm surge the west coast of Florida until the winds subside on Thursday.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the Anclote River, Florida.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.  A Storm Surge Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Leslie intensified to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Leslie was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 49.3°W which put the center about 945 miles (1515 km) east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Leslie was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Hurricane Milton Nears West Coast of Florida

The center of Hurricane Milton neared the west coast of Florida on Wednesday afternoon.  At 5:00 P.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Milton was located at latitude 26.9°N and longitude 83.4°W which put the center about 60 miles (95 km) west-southwest of Sarasota, Florida.  Milton was moving toward the northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Hurricane Warning includes Tampa Bay.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Martin/Palm Beach County Line, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Bonita Beach, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the St. Lucie/Martin County Line, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to Edisto Beach, South Carolina.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the extreme Northwestern Bahamas including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos and Bimini.

Hurricane Milton was weakening gradually on Wednesday afternoon, but Milton was still a major hurricane.  An upper level trough over the southern Mississippi River Valley was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Milton’s circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The upper level winds were also inhibiting the upper level divergence to the west of Hurricane Milton.  The wind shear was causing Hurricane Milton to weaken gradually.

A circular eye was present at the center of Hurricane Milton.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and northern parts of Hurricane Milton.  Bands in the southern and western parts of Milton’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Milton generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the hurricane.

Even though Hurricane Milton is weakening, the circulation around Milton is getting larger.  Winds to hurricane force extend out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Milton’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of Hurricane Milton.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Milton is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 16.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 38.9.  Hurricane Milton is similar in intensity to Hurricane Irma when Irma hit southwest Florida in 2017.  Milton is not as big as Irma was.

Hurricane Milton will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Milton will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However, the upper level trough over the southern Mississippi River Valley will continue to cause moderate to strong vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will cause Hurricane Milton to continue to weaken gradually during the next few hours.

The upper level trough over the southern Mississippi River Valley will steer Hurricane Milton toward the northeast east during the next 12 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Milton will make landfall in a few hours on the west coast of Florida near or just to the south of Tampa.

Even though Hurricane Milton weakened today, Milton is still expected to be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Florida.   Milton will bring strong gusty winds and heavy rain to the west coast of Florida.   Milton will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Florida.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for many of the counties in Central Florida.  Those Hurricane Warnings include Orlando.

Milton will be capable of causing major damage.  Heavy rains will cause floods in some locations. Widespread electricity outages are likely.

Flood Watches are in effect for much of the Florida Peninsula.

Milton will also produce a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) along the west coast of Florida.  The highest storm surge is likely to occur along the portion of the coast just to the south of Tampa.  A storm surge of 8 to 12 feet (2,4 to 3.7 meters) could occur in Tampa Bay.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the Yankeetown, Florida.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.  A Storm Surge Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

Thunderstorms in bands in the eastern periphery of Hurricane Milton have already produced tornadoes over South Florida.  A Tornado Watch is in effect for much of the Florida Peninsula.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Leslie intensified east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Leslie was located at latitude 22.2°N and longitude 49.0°W which put the center about 955 miles (1535 km) east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Leslie was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Hurricane Milton Moves Toward West Coast of Florida

Hurricane Milton was moving toward the west coast of Florida on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Milton was located at latitude 25.8°N and longitude 84.3°W which put the center about 190 miles (305 km) southwest of Tampa, Florida.  Milton was moving toward the northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (275 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 931 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Hurricane Warning includes Tampa Bay.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach to the Mouth of the St. Mary’s River, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Martin/Palm Beach County Line, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Bonita Beach, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the St. Lucie/Martin County Line, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to Savannah River, Georgia.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the extreme Northwestern Bahamas including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos and Bimini.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Savannah River, Georgia to the South Santee River, South Carolina.

Hurricane Milton started to weaken gradually on Wednesday morning, but Milton was still a powerful, dangerous hurricane.  An upper level trough over the southern Mississippi River Valley was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Milton’s circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The upper level winds were also inhibiting the upper level divergence to the west of Hurricane Milton.  The wind shear was causing Hurricane Milton to weaken gradually.

Even though Hurricane Milton was weakening gradually, it was still a major hurricane.  A small circular eye was present at the center of Milton’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and northern parts of Hurricane Milton.  Bands in the southern and western parts of Milton’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Milton generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the hurricane.

Although Hurricane Milton is weakening, the circulation around Milton is getting larger.  Winds to hurricane force extend out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Milton’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Hurricane Milton.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Milton is 29.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 44.3.  Hurricane Milton is similar in intensity to Hurricane Charley when Charley hit southwest Florida in 2004.  Milton is much larger than Charley was.

Hurricane Milton will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Milton will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However, the upper level trough over the southern Mississippi River Valley will continue to cause moderate to strong vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will cause Hurricane Milton to weaken gradually during the next 12 hours.

The upper level trough over the southern Mississippi River Valley will steer Hurricane Milton toward the northeast east during the next 12 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Milton will make landfall on Wednesday night on the west coast of Florida near or just to the south of Tampa.

Even though Hurricane Milton will weaken today, Milton is still expected to be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Florida.  Milton will bring strong gusty winds and heavy rain to the west coast of Florida.  Milton will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Florida.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for many of the counties in Central Florida.  Those Hurricane Warnings include Orlando.

Milton will be capable of causing major damage.  Heavy rains will cause floods in some locations. Widespread electricity outages are likely.

Flood Watches are in effect for much of the Florida Peninsula.

Milton will also produce a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) along the west coast of Florida.  The highest storm surge is likely to occur along the portion of the coast just to the south of Tampa>  A storm surge of 8 to 12 feet (2,4 to 3.7 meters) could occur in Tampa Bay.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the Yankeetown, Florida.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.  A Storm Surge Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to Edisto Beach, South Carolina.

Thunderstorms in bands in the eastern periphery of Hurricane Milton were already producing tornadoes over South Florida.  A Tornado Watch is in effect for the southern half of the Florida Peninsula.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Leslie intensified east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Leslie was located at latitude 21.7°N and longitude 48.4°W which put the center about 985 miles (1585 km) east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Leslie was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Hurricane Milton Strengthens Back to Cat. 5

Hurricane Milton strengthened back to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale after completing an eyewall replacement cyclone on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Milton was located at latitude 22.7°N and longitude 87.5°W which put the center about 480 miles (775 km) southwest of Tampa, Florida.  Milton was moving toward the east-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 905 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Hurricane Warning includes Tampa Bay.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach to the Mouth of the St. Mary’s River, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Martin/Palm Beach County Line, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Bonita Beach, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the St. Lucie/Martin County Line, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Dzilam to Cancun, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the extreme Northwestern Bahamas including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos and Bimini.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to the South Santee River, South Carolina.

Hurricane Milton strengthened back to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday afternoon after an eyewall replacement cycle was completed.  A new eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Milton’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Milton.  Storms near the center of Milton’s circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to remain very low.

The completion of the eyewall replacement cycle caused the size of the circulation around Hurricane Milton to increase a little more.  Winds to hurricane force extend out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Milton’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Hurricane Milton.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Milton is 36.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 11.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 48.5.  Hurricane Milton is stronger than Hurricane Michael was when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.  Milton is not quite as big as Michael was.  Hurricane Milton is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Otis when Otis hit Acapulco last year.

Hurricane Milton move through an environment favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 18 hours.  Milton will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Milton will could intensify a little more during the next 18 hours.  An upper level trough over the Mississippi River Valley will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Milton’s circulation later on Wednesday.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase and Hurricane Milton is likely to start to weaken on Wednesday afternoon.  In addition, the inner end of another rainband could wrap around the existing eye and eyewall.  If concentric eyewalls form again, then another eyewall replacement cycle will cause Hurricane Milton to weaken faster.  However, if an another eyewall replacement cycle occurs, then the size of Milton’s circulation will increase again.

The upper level trough over the Mississippi River Valley will start to steer Milton more quickly toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Milton will reach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday night.  Milton will be a major hurricane when it reaches Florida.

Hurricane Milton will be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Florida.  Milton will bring strong gusty winds and heavy rain to the west coast of Florida. Milton will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Florida.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for many of the counties in Central Florida.  Those Hurricane Warnings include Orlando.

Milton will be capable of causing major damage. Heavy rains will cause floods in some locations. Widespread electricity outages are likely.

Flood Watches are in effect for much of the Florida Peninsula.

Milton will also produce a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) along the west coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.  A Storm Surge Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to Edisto Beach, South Carolina.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Leslie was still churning west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Leslie was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 46.4°W which put the center about 1490 miles (2400 km) west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Leslie was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Nicole Strengthens to a Hurricane East of Florida

Former Tropical Storm Nicole strengthened to a hurricane east of Florida on Wednesday evening. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Nicole was located at latitude 26.6°N and longitude 78.5°W which put it about 100 miles (160 km) east of West Palm Beach, Florida. Nicole was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boca Raton to the Flagler/ Volusia County Line, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included West Palm Beach, Ft. Pierce, Melbourne and Daytona Beach. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Boca Raton to Hallandale Beach, Florida. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bimini. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida to the South Santee River, South Carolina. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Jacksonville, Florida and Charleston, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to Indian Pass, Florida. The Tropical Storm Warning included Tampa and St. Petersburg.

Former Tropical Storm Nicole intensified to a hurricane when it move over the warm water in the Gulf Stream Current on Wednesday evening. The eye of Hurricane Nicole was over Grand Bahama Island. The eye had a diameter of 30 miles (50 km). The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in the northern part of that ring. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Nicole. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease at the center of circulation.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Hurricane Nicole, but the overall circulation was very large. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 480 miles (775 km) from the center of Nicole’s circulation. Stations along the east coast of Florida reported sustained wind speeds of tropical storm force on Wednesday evening. Electricity outages were reported in several areas. Northeasterly winds were pushing water toward the coast and water level rises were reported from South Carolina to Florida. Large waves were causing significant beach erosion along the east coast of Florida.

Hurricane Nicole will continue to move through an environment that is favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Nicole will move over warm water in the Gulf Stream Current where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Nicole will extract more energy from the warmer water and it is likely to strengthen a little more during the next few hours.

Hurricane Nicole will move around the southwestern part of a surface high pressure system currently over the northeastern U.S. The high pressure system will steer Nicole toward the west-northwest during the next 12 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Nicole will make landfall on the east coast of Florida near or just to the north of West Palm Beach on Wednesday night. Nicole will be a hurricane when it reaches Florida. Hurricane Nicole will continue to bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the east coast of Florida. The winds in the northern side of Nicole will continue to blow water toward the coast of Florida and the Southeast U.S. Those winds could cause a storm surge of up to 6 feet (1.8 meters) in some locations. Large waves will keep breaking on the coast and they will cause significant beach erosion.

Hurricane Nicole will move northwest across Central Florida on Thursday. Nicole will weaken back to a tropical storm when it moves across Florida. Nicole could bring tropical storm force winds to the area around Orlando. The center of Nicole will be over northern Florida on Thursday evening. Widespread electricity outages could occur in central and northern Florida. Nicole will drop locally heavy rain over central and northern Florida, and southern Georgia. Heavy rain could cause fresh water floods in some locations.