Tag Archives: the Abacos

Hurricane Milton Moves Away From Florida

Hurricane Milton moved eastward over the Atlantic Ocean away from Florida on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Milton was located at latitude 29.1°N and longitude 78.5°W which put the center about 135 miles (220 km) east-northeast of Cape Canaveral, Florida.  Milton was moving toward the east-northeast at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Edisto Beach, South Carolina.   A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the extreme Northwestern Bahamas including Grand Bahama Island, and the Abacos.

Hurricane Milton was making a transition to an extratropical cyclone as it moved away to the east of Florida on Thursday morning.  A warm front was forming in the eastern part of Milton’s circulation.  A cold front was forming to the south of the center of Hurricane Milton.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and eastern sides of Milton’s circulation.  Bands in the southern and western parts of Hurricane Milton consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The transition to an extratropical cyclone was also causing the distribution of wind speeds around Hurricane Milton to become more asymmetrical.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Milton’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 310 miles (500 km) from the center of Hurricane Milton.

Hurricane Milton will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Milton will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce strong westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Milton’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Milton to complete a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Milton toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Milton will move quickly away from Florida.  Milton could affect Bermuda on Friday as an extratropical cyclone.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Leslie started to weaken.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Leslie was located at latitude 23.2°N and longitude 50.4°W which put the center about 1715 miles (2765 km) west-southeast of the Azores.  Leslie was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Hurricane Milton Brings Strong Winds and Heavy Rain to Florida

Hurricane Milton brought strong winds and heavy rain to Florida on Wednesday night.  At 11:00 P.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Milton was located at latitude 27.6°N and longitude 82.0°W which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) southwest of Orlando, Florida.  Milton was moving toward the east-northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Hurricane Warning includes Tampa Bay.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Martin/Palm Beach County Line, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Bonita Beach, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the St. Lucie/Martin County Line, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to Edisto Beach, South Carolina.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the extreme Northwestern Bahamas including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos and Bimini.

The center of Hurricane Milton made landfall on the west coast of Florida just south of Tampa on Wednesday evening.  Milton was a major hurricane at the time of landfall.  The heaviest rain fell just to the north of the center of Hurricane Milton.  The Albert Whitted Airport in St, Petersburg reported 14.83 inches (377 mm) of rain.  The Tampa International Airport reported 8.53 (217 mm) of rain.

A Flash Flood Emergency was in effect for the Tampa/St. Petersburg area.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northwestern part of Hurricane Milton.  The Albert Whitted Airport in St. Petersburg reported a sustained wind speed of 61 m.p.h. (98 km/h) and a wind gust of 101 m.p.h. (163 km/h).  The Tampa International Airport reported a sustained wind speed of 52 m.p.h. (84 km/h) and a wind gust of 85 m.p.h. (137 km/h).  The Sarasota-Bradenton Airport reported a sustained wind speed of 69 m.p.h. (111 km/h) and a wind gust of 102 m.p.h. (171 km/h).

There were reports of almost two million customers without electricity.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Milton increased as Milton approached the west coast of Florida.  Winds to hurricane force extend out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Milton’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of Hurricane Milton.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Milton is 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 16.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 34.6.  Hurricane Milton is almost as strong as Hurricane Sally was when Sally hit Alabama in 2020.  Milton is larger than Sally was.

Hurricane Milton will move around the southern part of an upper level trough over the eastern U.S.  The upper level trough will steer Milton toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Milton will move steadily across Central Florida.  Milton will move over the Atlantic Ocean east of Cape Canaveral on Thursday morning.

Even though Hurricane Milton  will weaken as it moves across Central Florida, Milton will continue bring strong winds and heavy rain to the region.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for many of the counties in Central Florida.  Those Hurricane Warnings include Orlando.

.  Heavy rains will cause floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for much of the Florida Peninsula.

Milton will also continue to produce a storm surge the west coast of Florida until the winds subside on Thursday.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the Anclote River, Florida.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.  A Storm Surge Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Leslie intensified to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Leslie was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 49.3°W which put the center about 945 miles (1515 km) east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Leslie was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Hurricane Milton Nears West Coast of Florida

The center of Hurricane Milton neared the west coast of Florida on Wednesday afternoon.  At 5:00 P.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Milton was located at latitude 26.9°N and longitude 83.4°W which put the center about 60 miles (95 km) west-southwest of Sarasota, Florida.  Milton was moving toward the northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Hurricane Warning includes Tampa Bay.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Martin/Palm Beach County Line, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Bonita Beach, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the St. Lucie/Martin County Line, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to Edisto Beach, South Carolina.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the extreme Northwestern Bahamas including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos and Bimini.

Hurricane Milton was weakening gradually on Wednesday afternoon, but Milton was still a major hurricane.  An upper level trough over the southern Mississippi River Valley was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Milton’s circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The upper level winds were also inhibiting the upper level divergence to the west of Hurricane Milton.  The wind shear was causing Hurricane Milton to weaken gradually.

A circular eye was present at the center of Hurricane Milton.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and northern parts of Hurricane Milton.  Bands in the southern and western parts of Milton’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Milton generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the hurricane.

Even though Hurricane Milton is weakening, the circulation around Milton is getting larger.  Winds to hurricane force extend out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Milton’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of Hurricane Milton.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Milton is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 16.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 38.9.  Hurricane Milton is similar in intensity to Hurricane Irma when Irma hit southwest Florida in 2017.  Milton is not as big as Irma was.

Hurricane Milton will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Milton will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However, the upper level trough over the southern Mississippi River Valley will continue to cause moderate to strong vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will cause Hurricane Milton to continue to weaken gradually during the next few hours.

The upper level trough over the southern Mississippi River Valley will steer Hurricane Milton toward the northeast east during the next 12 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Milton will make landfall in a few hours on the west coast of Florida near or just to the south of Tampa.

Even though Hurricane Milton weakened today, Milton is still expected to be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Florida.   Milton will bring strong gusty winds and heavy rain to the west coast of Florida.   Milton will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Florida.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for many of the counties in Central Florida.  Those Hurricane Warnings include Orlando.

Milton will be capable of causing major damage.  Heavy rains will cause floods in some locations. Widespread electricity outages are likely.

Flood Watches are in effect for much of the Florida Peninsula.

Milton will also produce a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) along the west coast of Florida.  The highest storm surge is likely to occur along the portion of the coast just to the south of Tampa.  A storm surge of 8 to 12 feet (2,4 to 3.7 meters) could occur in Tampa Bay.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the Yankeetown, Florida.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.  A Storm Surge Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

Thunderstorms in bands in the eastern periphery of Hurricane Milton have already produced tornadoes over South Florida.  A Tornado Watch is in effect for much of the Florida Peninsula.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Leslie intensified east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Leslie was located at latitude 22.2°N and longitude 49.0°W which put the center about 955 miles (1535 km) east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Leslie was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Hurricane Milton Moves Toward West Coast of Florida

Hurricane Milton was moving toward the west coast of Florida on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Milton was located at latitude 25.8°N and longitude 84.3°W which put the center about 190 miles (305 km) southwest of Tampa, Florida.  Milton was moving toward the northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (275 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 931 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Hurricane Warning includes Tampa Bay.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach to the Mouth of the St. Mary’s River, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Martin/Palm Beach County Line, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Bonita Beach, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the St. Lucie/Martin County Line, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to Savannah River, Georgia.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the extreme Northwestern Bahamas including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos and Bimini.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Savannah River, Georgia to the South Santee River, South Carolina.

Hurricane Milton started to weaken gradually on Wednesday morning, but Milton was still a powerful, dangerous hurricane.  An upper level trough over the southern Mississippi River Valley was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Milton’s circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The upper level winds were also inhibiting the upper level divergence to the west of Hurricane Milton.  The wind shear was causing Hurricane Milton to weaken gradually.

Even though Hurricane Milton was weakening gradually, it was still a major hurricane.  A small circular eye was present at the center of Milton’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and northern parts of Hurricane Milton.  Bands in the southern and western parts of Milton’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Milton generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the hurricane.

Although Hurricane Milton is weakening, the circulation around Milton is getting larger.  Winds to hurricane force extend out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Milton’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Hurricane Milton.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Milton is 29.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 44.3.  Hurricane Milton is similar in intensity to Hurricane Charley when Charley hit southwest Florida in 2004.  Milton is much larger than Charley was.

Hurricane Milton will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Milton will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However, the upper level trough over the southern Mississippi River Valley will continue to cause moderate to strong vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will cause Hurricane Milton to weaken gradually during the next 12 hours.

The upper level trough over the southern Mississippi River Valley will steer Hurricane Milton toward the northeast east during the next 12 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Milton will make landfall on Wednesday night on the west coast of Florida near or just to the south of Tampa.

Even though Hurricane Milton will weaken today, Milton is still expected to be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Florida.  Milton will bring strong gusty winds and heavy rain to the west coast of Florida.  Milton will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Florida.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for many of the counties in Central Florida.  Those Hurricane Warnings include Orlando.

Milton will be capable of causing major damage.  Heavy rains will cause floods in some locations. Widespread electricity outages are likely.

Flood Watches are in effect for much of the Florida Peninsula.

Milton will also produce a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) along the west coast of Florida.  The highest storm surge is likely to occur along the portion of the coast just to the south of Tampa>  A storm surge of 8 to 12 feet (2,4 to 3.7 meters) could occur in Tampa Bay.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the Yankeetown, Florida.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.  A Storm Surge Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to Edisto Beach, South Carolina.

Thunderstorms in bands in the eastern periphery of Hurricane Milton were already producing tornadoes over South Florida.  A Tornado Watch is in effect for the southern half of the Florida Peninsula.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Leslie intensified east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Leslie was located at latitude 21.7°N and longitude 48.4°W which put the center about 985 miles (1585 km) east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Leslie was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Storm Humberto Develops East of the Bahamas

Former Tropical Depression Nine strengthened into Tropical Storm Humberto east of the Bahamas on Friday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday night the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was located at latitude 25.6°N and longitude 75.2°W which put it about 130 miles (210 km) east-southeast of Great Abaco, Bahamas.  Humberto was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Abacos, the Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence.

A NOAA research aircraft flying through former Tropical Depression Nine on Friday night determined that the depression had strengthened into Tropical Storm Humberto.  The aircraft reported that the maximum sustained wind speed had increased to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The circulation around Tropical Storm Humberto was still poorly organized.  A few thunderstorms developed just to the north of the center of circulation.  A band of showers and thunderstorms curved around the eastern side of the circulation.  Bands in the other parts of Tropical Storm Humberto consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Storm Humberto will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next few days.  Humberto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.   A large upper level low over the Gulf of Mexico will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical storm. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they will inhibit intensification.  The upper low is forecast to move westward away from Humberto and the wind shear could decrease during the weekend. Tropical Storm Humberto is forecast to slowly become more organized and it could strengthen into a hurricane.

The upper low over the Gulf of Mexico will help to steer Tropical Storm Humberto toward the northwest during the next day or two.  A strong upper level trough over the Great Lakes will start to turn Humberto toward the east later in the weekend.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Humberto could move near the Northwestern Bahamas.  If Humberto brings wind and rain to that region, it will hinder efforts to recover from Hurricane Dorian.

Tropical Depression Nine Develops Near the Bahamas

Tropical Depression Nine developed near the Bahamas on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located at latitude 25.6°N and longitude 75.0°W which put it about 140 miles (225 km) east-southeast of Great Abaco, Bahamas.  It was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Abacos, the Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the Florida coast from Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane was able to identify a low level center of circulation in a tropical disturbance near the Bahamas on Friday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Nine.  The center of circulation developed on the southwestern side of a cluster of thunderstorms just east of the Bahamas.  The circulation around the depression was still in the early stages of organization.  Most of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in the eastern half of the tropical depression.  Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Depression Nine will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next few days.  The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  A large upper level low over the Gulf of Mexico will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the depression.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they will inhibit intensification.  The upper low is forecast to move westward away from the  tropical depression and the wind shear could decrease during the weekend.  Tropical Depression Nine is forecast to slowly become more organized and it could strengthen into a tropical storm.

The upper low over the Gulf of Mexico will help to steer Tropical Depression Nine toward the northwest during the next day or two.  A strong upper level trough over the Great Lakes will start to turn the depression toward the east later in the weekend.  On its anticipated track the center of the depression could move near the Northwestern Bahamas.  If Tropical Depression Nine brings wind and rain to that region, it will hinder efforts to recover from Hurricane Dorian.

Tropical Storm Warnings Issued for Northwestern Bahamas

The government of the Bahamas issued Tropical Storm Warnings for the Northwestern Bahamas on Friday afternoon.  Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence.  A tropical disturbance over the Southeastern Bahamas was forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm, which prompted the issuance of the Tropical Storm Warnings.  The National Hurricane Center (NHC) initiated advisories on the disturbance at 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday and NHC designated the system at Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the broad center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was located at latitude 23.7°N and longitude 74.8°W which put it about 235 miles (380 km) southeast of Great Abaco.  It was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was very poorly organized.  There was a very broad center around which the air was turning cyclonically.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane was finding weak winds near the broad center.  Most of the strong thunderstorms were northeast of the broad center of the disturbance.  The stronger winds here occurring near those thunderstorms.  There did not appear to be any significant banding of the showers and thunderstorms.

A large upper level low over the Gulf of Mexico was producing moderate southerly winds which were blowing across the western side of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  A small upper level ridge was developing between the upper low over the Gulf and another smaller upper low near Bermuda.  Winds were weaker under the ridge and that was the likely reason the stronger thunderstorms were in the northeastern part of the disturbance.  It is possible that a new center of circulation could develop near one of the clusters of thunderstorms.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move through an area somewhat favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper low over the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to move westward which would cause the vertical wind shear to decrease.  If the shear decreases, then a distinct low level center of circulation could develop.  If a distinct center forms, then the system would be designated as a tropical depression.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine has the potential to strengthen into a tropical storm during the next 24 to 48 hours.

The future track of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will depend on the place where a center of circulation forms and how strong the system becomes.  A stronger tropical cyclone would be steered by winds higher in the atmosphere.  If Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine strengthens significantly then the upper level low over the Gulf of Mexico and the developing upper level ridge will combine to the system toward the northwest during the next day or two.  A cold front moving southeast across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley could turn the system toward the northeast later in the weekend.  Under that scenario Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine would move across the Northwestern Bahamas on Friday.  It could approach southeast Florida on Saturday.

On the other hand, if Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine does not develop, or if it remains a weak tropical cyclone, then it would be steered by winds lower in the atmosphere.  In that case the system could be steered more toward the west-northwest and it could move across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico.   The guidance from numerical models is very divergent about the predicted future track of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.  In any case the system will bring some wind and rain to the Northwestern Bahamas and that will hinder efforts to recover from Hurricane Dorian.

Tropical Storm Fernand Forms Over W. Gulf of Mexico, Dorian Edges Away From Bahamas

Tropical Storm Fernand formed over the western Gulf of Mexico and powerful Hurricane Dorian edged slowly away from the Northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday afternoon.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was located at latitude 23.5°N and longitude 95.3°W which put it about 160 miles (260 km) east of La Pesca, Mexico.  Fernand was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Warning that was in effect for the portion of the coast from Barra del Tordo to the mouth of the Rio Grande River.

The circulation around an area of low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico exhibited greater organization on Tuesday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Fernand.  The circulation around Fernand consisted of a broad area of lower pressure.  One rainband wrapped around the northern periphery of the circulation and a second rainband wrapped around the western periphery of the circulation.  Bands in other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and low clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 105 miles (170 km) from the center of the circulation on the western side of Fernand.

Tropical Storm Fernand will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fernand will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Fernand is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours.  However, the broad circulation will limit how fast the tropical storm can intensify.

Tropical Storm Fernand will move south of an ridge of high pressure over the southern U.S.  The ridge will Fernand toward the west-northwest during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fernand is expected to make landfall on the coast of Mexico between La Pesca and Mezquital on Wednesday.  Fernand will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain.  The rain could cause flash floods where Tropical Storm Fernand moves inland over northeastern Mexico.  Fernand could also cause a storm surge of 6 feet (2 meters) along the coast.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, powerful Hurricane Dorian began to edge slowly away from the Northwestern Bahamas.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Dorian was located at latitude 27.5°N and longitude 78.7°W which put it about 105 miles (170 km) east of Ft. Pierce, Florida.  Dorian was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida and from Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina.  Hurricane Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach to Edisto Beach and from South Santee River to Duck, North Carolina including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet, Florida and from Ponte Vedra Beach to Edisto Beach.  The Hurricane Warnings for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos and Grand Bahama Island had been changed to Tropical Storm Warnings, since Dorian was moving away from those locations.

Hurricane Dorian finally started to move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday.  An upper level trough over the U.S. will turn Dorian toward the northeast on Wednesday.  On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Dorian will stay offshore and move parallel to east coast of Florida.  A small deviation to the west could bring the core of Dorian close to the coast.  The center of Hurricane Dorian could move very close to the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina on Thursday.  The circulation around Hurricane Dorian increased in size on Tuesday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 170 miles (275 km) from the center.

Hurricane Dorian Hammers the Northwestern Bahamas

Hurricane Dorian hammered the Northwestern Bahamas on Monday.  After pounding the Abacos on Sunday night, Hurricane Dorian moved slowly across Grand Bahama Island before stalling over that island for much of Monday.  There were reports of significant storms surges, numerous injuries and some fatalities.  Dorian was still battering Grand Bahama Island on Monday night.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Dorian was located at latitude 26.9°N and longitude 78.5°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) north-northeast of Freeport, Bahamas and about 100 miles (160 km) east of West Palm Beach, Florida.  Dorian was essentially stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for the Abacos and Grand Bahama Island.  A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the Florida coast from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach.  Hurricane Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet and from Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach and for Lake Okeechobee.

Hurricane Dorian weakened slowly on Monday.  As it remained nearly stationary the winds around Dorian mixed cooler water to the surface.  Hurricane Dorian was unable to extract enough energy from the ocean to maintain its extreme intensity,  The circulation in core of Dorian developed two concentric eyewalls.  The concentric eyewalls suggested that the hurricane had started an eyewall replacement cycle which may have also contributed to the reduction of the wind speed.

The concentric eyewalls also produced an increase in the size of the circulation around Hurricane Dorian.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out abou 150 miles from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 15,2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 40.3.

Hurricane Dorian was south of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high was blocking Dorian and preventing the hurricane from moving toward the north.  The western end of the high is forecast to weaken on Tuesday.  When the end of the high weakens, it will allow Hurricane Dorian to move toward the northwest.  An upper level trough over the U.S. will approach Dorian on Wednesday.  The trough is forecast to turn Dorian toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Dorian could approach the Central Florida coast by Tuesday night.  Dorian could approach the Carolinas on Wednesday night.

Hurricane Dorian will move into an environment favorable for intensification when it starts moving again on Tuesday.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Hurricane Dorian could still be in the weakening part of the eyewall replacement cycle and Dorian may not intensify despite the favorable environment.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds which will cause wind shear to increase on Wednesday.  The increase in wind shear will likely cause Hurricane Dorian to weaken when it approaches the Carolinas.

Hurricane Dorian Pounds Northwest Bahamas, Warning Issued for Florida

Hurricane Dorian pounded the Northwestern Bahamas on Sunday afternoon and a Hurricane Warning was issued for a portion of the southeast Florida coast.  Dorian was one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Dorian was locate at latitude 26.6°N and longitude 77.3°W which put it about 175 miles (280 km) east of West Palm Beach, Florida.  Dorian was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 220 m.p.h. (355 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 910 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was issued for the portion of the coast of Florida from Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line.  Hurricane Warnings were also in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence.  Hurricane Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet, Florida and from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for Andros Island.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet, Florida.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from  Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach, Florida and for Lake Okeechobee.

The core of Hurricane Dorian moved over Great Abaco Island on Sunday afternoon.  Dorian intensified rapidly to an intense Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale when it reached the warm water around the Bahamas.  The pressure decreased rapidly to 910 mb and the winds increased to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h).  There was a circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) at the center of Hurricane Dorian.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Dorian.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Dorian increased in size on Sunday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 140 miles (220 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Dorian was 44.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14,3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 58.4.  Hurricane Dorian was capable of causing regional catastrophic damage.  Dorian was stronger than Hurricane Andrew was when Andrew hit southeast Florida in 1992.

Hurricane Dorian will remain in a favorable environment for intense hurricanes for another 24 to 36 hours.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  It appeared that an inner rainband may have wrapped around the existing eye and eyewall.  Radar images indicated that there could be two concentric eyewalls.  If there are two eyewalls, then an eyewall replacement cycle is underway.  Hurricane Dorian will weaken, at least temporarily when the inner eyewall dissipates.  However, Dorian will get larger when the strongest winds occur in the outer eyewall.

Hurricane Dorian will move near the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Dorian slowly toward the west-northwest during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Eventually, Hurricane Dorian will move more toward the north when it moves around the western end of the high.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Dorian will linger over the Northwestern Bahamas on Sunday night.  The core of Dorian will pass over or very near Grand Bahama Island.  It could cause catastrophic damage on the Abacos and Grand Bahama Island.  Hurricane Dorian could approach the east coast of Florida on Tuesday.