Tag Archives: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine

Watches and Warnings Issued for Yucatan and Western Cuba

A risk posed by a low pressure system over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea prompted the issuance of Watches and Warnings for Yucatan and western Cuba on Monday morning.  The low pressure system was designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine by the U.S. National Hurricane Center.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 82.0°W which put the center about 350 miles (565 km) south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico.  The Hurricane Watch includes Cancun and Cozumel.  A Hurricane Watch is also in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Cancun and Cozumel.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and Isle of Youth.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center changed the designation of former Invest 97L to Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine on Monday morning.  The low pressure system still had a large asymmetrical circulation.  There were not many thunderstorms near the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands developed in the eastern side of the low pressure system.  Bands in the western side of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move through an environment favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  The low pressure system will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the western Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is likely to form into a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

A reconnaissance plane is on its way to investigate Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move approach Yucatan and the western end of Cuba on Tuesday afternoon.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is likely to move over the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine could be a hurricane when it reaches Yucatan and western Cuba.  It will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is likely to affect Florida on Thursday.  It is likely to be a hurricane when it reaches Florida.

Gulf System Prompts Tropical Storm Warning for South Texas

The potential risk posed by a low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for South Texas. The U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the low pressure system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was located at latitude 25.0°N and longitude 89.9°W which put it about 480 miles (770 km) east-southeast of Port Mansfield, Texas. The low pressure system was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port O’Connor, Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande, River. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port O’Connor to Sargent, Texas.

There was a large circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, but there was not a well defined surface center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving counterclockwise in the large low pressure system. There were more thunderstorms in the bands in the northern side of the low pressure system than there were in the bands in the southern half of the circulation.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the central U.S. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the low pressure system. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow form the east. So, there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear over much of the lower pressure system. An upper level low over northern Mexico will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the southwestern part of the low pressure system. There will be more vertical wind shear in that region. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is likely to intensify to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

The upper level ridge will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the low pressure system will reach the coast of South Texas on Tuesday morning. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will likely be a tropical storm when it reaches South Texas. It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to South Texas. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. The low pressure system could also cause a storm surge of up to five feet (1.5 meters) along the coast.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Franklin was over the Caribbean Sea, Tropical Storm Gert was east of the Leeward Islands and former Tropical Storm Emily weakened to a tropical depression over the central Atlantic Ocean.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located at latitude 15.0°N and longitude 70.1°W which put it about 240 miles (390 km) south of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. Franklin was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to the border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the north coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to the border with Haiti.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Gert was located at latitude 16.9°N and longitude 57.0°W which put it about 410 miles (665 km) east-southeast of the Northern Leeward Islands. Gert was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Emily was located at latitude 21.1°N and longitude 41.6°W which put it about 1225 miles (1965 km) west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Emily was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Potential Tropical Storm Prompts Warnings for Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Leeward Islands

A low pressure system that has the potential to organize into a tropical storm prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Warnings for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and many of the Leeward Islands on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 53.7°W which put it about 585 miles (940 km) east-southeast of the Leeward Islands.  It was moving toward the west at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Antigua, Barbuda, the British Virgin Islands, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten.

The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was very broad and it stretched from the southwest toward the northeast.  The stronger thunderstorms were occurring in the southwestern and northeastern ends of the circulation.  There were few thunderstorms or bands in the broad middle of the low pressure system.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) on the northern side of the circulation.  The winds in the southern half of the low pressure system were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next two days.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The large broad circulation will contribute to a slow, gradual intensification.  If thunderstorms consolidate around a center of circulation and an inner core begins to form, then the system may be designated as a tropical storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer the potential tropical storm toward the west-northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine could approach the Leeward Islands on Wednesday morning.  It could approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Wednesday night.  The large circulation means that Potential Tropical Nine will bring a prolonged period of gusty winds.  It could also drop heavy rain and cause flash floods on some islands.

Tropical Storm Warnings Issued for Northwestern Bahamas

The government of the Bahamas issued Tropical Storm Warnings for the Northwestern Bahamas on Friday afternoon.  Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence.  A tropical disturbance over the Southeastern Bahamas was forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm, which prompted the issuance of the Tropical Storm Warnings.  The National Hurricane Center (NHC) initiated advisories on the disturbance at 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday and NHC designated the system at Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the broad center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was located at latitude 23.7°N and longitude 74.8°W which put it about 235 miles (380 km) southeast of Great Abaco.  It was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was very poorly organized.  There was a very broad center around which the air was turning cyclonically.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane was finding weak winds near the broad center.  Most of the strong thunderstorms were northeast of the broad center of the disturbance.  The stronger winds here occurring near those thunderstorms.  There did not appear to be any significant banding of the showers and thunderstorms.

A large upper level low over the Gulf of Mexico was producing moderate southerly winds which were blowing across the western side of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  A small upper level ridge was developing between the upper low over the Gulf and another smaller upper low near Bermuda.  Winds were weaker under the ridge and that was the likely reason the stronger thunderstorms were in the northeastern part of the disturbance.  It is possible that a new center of circulation could develop near one of the clusters of thunderstorms.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move through an area somewhat favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper low over the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to move westward which would cause the vertical wind shear to decrease.  If the shear decreases, then a distinct low level center of circulation could develop.  If a distinct center forms, then the system would be designated as a tropical depression.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine has the potential to strengthen into a tropical storm during the next 24 to 48 hours.

The future track of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will depend on the place where a center of circulation forms and how strong the system becomes.  A stronger tropical cyclone would be steered by winds higher in the atmosphere.  If Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine strengthens significantly then the upper level low over the Gulf of Mexico and the developing upper level ridge will combine to the system toward the northwest during the next day or two.  A cold front moving southeast across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley could turn the system toward the northeast later in the weekend.  Under that scenario Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine would move across the Northwestern Bahamas on Friday.  It could approach southeast Florida on Saturday.

On the other hand, if Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine does not develop, or if it remains a weak tropical cyclone, then it would be steered by winds lower in the atmosphere.  In that case the system could be steered more toward the west-northwest and it could move across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico.   The guidance from numerical models is very divergent about the predicted future track of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.  In any case the system will bring some wind and rain to the Northwestern Bahamas and that will hinder efforts to recover from Hurricane Dorian.

Tropical Storm Harvey Develops East of Barbados

A reconnaissance plane found that a center of circulation and winds to tropical storm force had developed in a tropical wave previously designated as Invest 91L and Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.  Based on data collected by the recon plane the National Hurricane Center named the system Tropical Storm Harvey on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located at latitude 13.0°N and longitude 55.8°W which put it about 250 miles (400 km) east of Barbados.  Harvey was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Martinique, Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and St. Lucia.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Dominica.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Harvey became better organized on Thursday.  A low level center of circulation developed and bands of showers and thunderstorms began to revolve around the center.  Intermittent bursts of thunderstorms occurred near and to the west of the center of circulation.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Harvey is asymmetrical.  Most of the stronger thunderstorms are occurring in the western half of the circulation.  The bands in the eastern half of the circulation consist primarily of showers and low clouds.  Thunderstorms near the core of Harvey were generating some upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the south and west of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Harvey will be moving through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification.  Harvey will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge northeast of Puerto Rico is producing northeasterly winds which are blowing toward the top of Tropical Storm Harvey.  Those winds are producing moderate vertical wind shear which is probably the cause of the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  Tropical Storm Harvey is likely to get better organized on Friday and it could strengthen.  The intensity guidance is mixed.  Some guidance forecasts that Harvey will become a hurricane as it moves over the Caribbean Sea, while other guidance weaken the tropical storm back to a tropical wave.  So far, the guidance has underpredicted the strength of Tropical Storm Harvey and so strengthen would seem more likely.

Tropical Storm Harvey is being steered quickly toward the west by the subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean.  A general westerly or west-northwesterly track is forecast for the next few days.  On its anticipate track Tropical Storm Harvey could reach Barbados in about 12 hours.  Harvey could also reach Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines on Friday.  Tropical Storm Harvey will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to those islands when it moves over them.