Tag Archives: Haiti

Major Hurricane Beryl Nears Jamaica

Major Hurricane Beryl neared Jamaica on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 76.1°W which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.  A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Cancun, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chetumal, Mexico to Belize City, Belize.  A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Campeche, Mexico.

U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA aircraft found that Hurricane Beryl was still a major hurricane on Wednesday morning.   Although the eye appeared cloud filled on visible satellite images, the reconnaissance aircraft reported a circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was present at the center of Beryl’s circulation.   The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.   Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.   Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  Westerly winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere were inhibiting divergence of mass to the west of Hurricane Beryl.  Since the removal of mass was less than the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere, the surface pressure was increasing slowly.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl was nearly steady during Wednesday morning.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.9.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ida when Ida hit Louisiana in 2021.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment that will be less favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level low over Northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The upper level low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will also cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Beryl will weaken as the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Beryl pass near the southern coast of Jamaica on Wednesday afternoon.  Beryl will begin to affect the Cayman Islands later on Wednesday evening.

The core of Hurricane Beryl is likely to pass just south of Jamaica during the next few hours.  Much of Jamaica could experience winds to hurricane force.  The strongest winds will occur along the southern coast of Jamaica.   Beryl will be capable of causing regional major damage. Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Hurricane Beryl will also drop heavy rain on Jamaica.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the south coast of Jamaica where the wind blows the water toward the coast.

Hurricane Beryl will reach the Cayman Islands on Wednesday night. Beryl is forecast still to be a hurricane when it reaches the Cayman Islands.  Hurricane Beryl will be capable of causing regional serious damage when it reaches the Cayman Islands.

Hurricane Beryl will approach the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday evening.  Beryl is likely to still be a hurricane when it approaches the Yucatan.

Dangerous Hurricane Beryl Moves Closer to Jamaica

Dangerous Hurricane Beryl moved closer to Jamaica on Tuesday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 72.7°W which put the center about 300 miles (400 km) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.   Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the South coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chetumal, Mexico to Belize City, Belize.

U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA aircraft continued to fly reconnaissance into Hurricane Beryl on Tuesday evening.  A circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was present at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass was nearly equal to the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The equilibrium between upper level divergence and lower level convergence caused the surface pressure to remain nearly steady.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl increased on Tuesday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 45.2.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ida when Ida hit Louisiana in 2021.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment that will be less favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move closer to an upper level low over Northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Beryl will weaken when the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Beryl will begin to affect Jamaica by Wednesday morning.

Hurricane Beryl is likely to be a major hurricane when it reaches Jamaica.  Beryl will be capable of causing regional major damage.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Hurricane Beryl will also drop heavy rain on Jamaica.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) where the wind blows the water toward the coast.

The circulation around the northern side of Hurricane Beryl will cause the water level to rise along the south coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.  There are already reports of a storm surge along the south coast of Dominican Republic.

Hurricane Beryl will reach the Cayman Islands on Wednesday night.  Beryl is forecast still to be a hurricane when it reaches the Cayman Islands.

 

 

Powerful Hurricane Beryl Moves Toward Jamaica

Powerful Hurricane Beryl moved over the Caribbean Sea toward Jamaica on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 68.9°W which put the center about 555 miles (895 km) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.   Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 938 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Jamaica.

Hurricane Watches were in effect for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the South coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.

U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA aircraft determined that Hurricane Beryl was still a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday morning.  A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was present at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  The removal of large amounts of mass was nearly equal to the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The equilibrium between upper level divergence and lower level convergence caused the surface pressure to remain nearly steady.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl increased on Tuesday morning.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (280 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 48.7.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment that will become less favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move closer to an upper level trough over Northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Beryl will start to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Beryl will move toward Jamaica.  The core of Beryl’s could reach Jamaica by late Wednesday morning.

Hurricane Beryl is likely to be a major hurricane when it reaches Jamaica.  Beryl will be capable of causing regional major damage.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Hurricane Beryl will also drop heavy rain on Jamaica.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) where the wind blows the water toward the coast.

The circulation around the northern side of Hurricane Beryl will cause the water level to rise along the south coasts of Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti.  There are already reports of a storm surge along the south coast of Puerto Rico.

Hurricane Beryl Intensifies to Cat. 5

Hurricane Beryl intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Monday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 64.9°W which put the center about 840 miles (1355 km) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 938 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Jamaica.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.

A NOAA research aircraft determined on Monday evening that Hurricane Beryl had intensified to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was present at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to continue to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl remained relatively constant during Monday evening.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 47.6.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.

The eye of Hurricane Beryl moved over Carriacou Island earlier on Monday.  There were reports of significant damage on that island.  The core of Beryl’s circulation passed just to the north of Grenada.  A weather station at Maurice Bishop International airport in Grenada (TGPY) reported a sustained wind speed of 92 m.p.h. (148 km/h) and a wind gust of 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and eastern Caribbean Sea.  The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere are also blowing from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Beryl could intensify during the next 24 hours unless another Eyewall Replacement Cycle occurs.  The vertical wind shear is forecast to increase on Wednesday and Beryl is likely to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Beryl will move toward Jamaica.  Beryl could reach Jamaica on Wednesday.  Hurricane Beryl will pass south of Puerto Rico on Tuesday morning.  Beryl will move south of Hispaniola later on Tuesday.

 

 

Hurricane Beryl Batters the Grenadine Islands

Hurricane Beryl battered the Grenadine Islands on Monday.  At 12:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 12.5°N and longitude 61.5°W which put the center about 15 miles (25 km) west of Carriacou Island.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Barbados, Grenada, Tobago, and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.

A Hurricane Watch was is in effect for Jamaica.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for St. Lucia, Martinique and Trinidad.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti.  A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.

Hurricane Beryl intensified rapidly after it completed an Eyewall Replacement Cycle early on Monday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was present at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

Completion of the Eyewall Replacement Cycle caused the size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl to increase.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.1.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in intensity and just a little smaller than Hurricane Ida was when Ida hit Louisiana in 2021.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and eastern Caribbean Sea.  The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere are also blowing from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Beryl is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours unless another Eyewall Replacement Cycle occurs.  There is a chance that Hurricane Beryl could strengthen to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Beryl will move away from the Windward Islands during the next few hours.  Beryl will pass south of Puerto Rico on Tuesday.

The core of Hurricane Beryl is passing over the Grenadine Islands.  Beryl is capable of causing regional severe damage.  Widespread outages of electricity are likely.  Hurricane Beryl will also drop heavy rain.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) on the parts of islands where the wind blows the water toward the shore.

Hurricane Beryl will also bring strong winds and heavy rain in Grenada, St. Vincent, and St. Lucia, Tobago, and Martinique. Gusty winds and heavy rain could occur in Tobago and Martinique.  The wind speeds should diminish in Barbados and Trinidad as Hurricane Beryl moves farther away..

 

 

 

 

Hurricane Beryl Nears the Windward Islands

Hurricane Beryl neared the Windward Islands on Monday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 60.5°W which put the center about 70 miles (110 km) east of Grenada.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Barbados, Grenada, Tobago, and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for St. Lucia, Martinique and Trinidad.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti.  A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.

Hurricane Beryl quickly completed an Eyewall Replacement Cycle early on Monday.  Beryl began to intensify again after completion of the Eyewall Replacement Cycle.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was present at the center of Hurricane Beryl.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to start to decrease again.

Completion of the Eyewall Replacement Cycle caused the size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl to increase.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.9.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and eastern Caribbean Sea.  The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere are also blowing from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Beryl is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours unless another Eyewall Replacement Cycle occurs.  There is a chance that Hurricane Beryl could strengthen to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Beryl will hit Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands in a few hours.

The core of Hurricane Beryl will pass very close to Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands in a few hours.  Beryl will be capable of causing regional severe damage.  Widespread outages of electricity are likely.  Hurricane Beryl will also drop heavy rain.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) on the parts of islands where the wind blows the water toward the shore.

Hurricane Beryl will also bring strong winds and heavy rain in St. Lucia, Tobago, and Martinique.  Gusty winds and heavy rain could occur in Barbados and Trinidad.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Chris brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Mexico.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Chris was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 97.7°W which put the center about 60 miles (95 km) south-southwest of Tuxpan, Mexico.  Chris was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Hurricane Beryl Approaches Windward Islands

Hurricane Beryl was approaching the Windward Islands on Sunday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 11.5°N and longitude 58.1°W which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) southeast of Barbados.   Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, Grenada, Tobago, and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Martinique and Trinidad.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Dominica.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.

A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was present at the center of Hurricane Beryl.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The inner end of a rainband was wrapping around the existing eye and eyewall.  Concentric eyewalls were likely forming.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  The removal of large amounts of mass was in equilibrium with the inflow of mass near the surface and the surface pressure was nearly steady.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl also remained nearly steady on Sunday evening.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.6.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere are also blowing from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Although Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment favorable for intensification, Beryl is likely to weaken during the next few hours.  Concentric eyewalls will likely lead to an Eyewall Replacement Cycle.  During an Eyewall Replacement Cycle the inner eyewall weakens and dissipates.  Since the maximum wind speeds occur in the inner eyewall, Hurricane Beryl will weaken, at least temporarily, when that happens.  Beryl could strengthen again after the Eyewall Replacement Cycle is over.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Beryl will pass between Barbados and Tobago early on Monday.  Hurricane Beryl will begin to affect St. Lucia, Grenada, and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands later on Monday morning.

The core of Hurricane Beryl could pass very close to St. Lucia, Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.  Beryl will be capable of causing regional severe damage.  Hurricane Beryl will also drop heavy rain.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) on the parts of islands where the wind blows the water toward the shore.

Hurricane Beryl will also produce strong winds and heavy rain in Barbados, Tobago, and Martinique.  Gusty winds and heavy rain could occur in Trinidad and Dominica.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Chris formed over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico near the coast of Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Chris was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 96.2°W which put the center about 105 miles (165 km) southeast of Tuxpan, Mexico.  Chris was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Rojo to Puerto Veracruz, Mexico.

 

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo Unlikely to Develop

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo is now unlikely to develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 76.5°W which put it about 85 miles (130 km) west of Guantanamo, Cuba. It was moving toward the northeast at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A low pressure system over the Caribbean Sea designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo is no longer expected to develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm. An upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico is producing strong southwesterly winds that are blowing across the top of the low pressure system. Those winds are causing strong vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear is preventing the formation of thunderstorms near the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo. Thunderstorms are occurring in bands in the eastern part of the low pressure system. Bands in the western part of the system and near the center of circulation consist of showers and lower clouds.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo will move through an environment unfavorable for development of a tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours. The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear is likely to continue to prevent the formation of a tropical depression or a tropical storm. Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo could merge with a cold front off the east coast of the U.S. during the weekend.

The upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo will move across eastern Cuba and the Southeastern Bahamas on Saturday. The low pressure system will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in parts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

Tropical Storm Watches Issued for Jamaica, Haiti, Eastern Cuba and Southeastern Bahamas

The potential risk posed by a low pressure system over the western Caribbean Sea prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches for Jamaica, Haiti, eastern Cuba, the Southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos on Thursday afternoon. The U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the low pressure system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 81.5°W which put it about 365 miles (590 km) west-southwest of Kington, Jamaica. The low pressure system was moving toward the north-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Jamaica, Haiti, the Southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, and the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane investigated the low pressure system over the western Caribbean Sea on Thursday afternoon. The crew of the plane found that there was a large counterclockwise rotation, but the was not a well defined low level center within that large rotation. There were several smaller counterclockwise rotations within the larger low pressure system. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo. Bands in the western side of the low pressure system consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the low pressure system. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo is likely to intensify to a tropical storm during the next 36 hours.

The upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo will be near Jamaica on Friday afternoon. The low pressure system will be near eastern Cuba and Haiti on Friday night. It will be over the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos on Saturday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Jamaica, Haiti, eastern Cuba, the Southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos. Gusty winds could cause localized electricity outages. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Franklin Drops Heavy Rain on Hispaniola

Tropical Storm Franklin was dropping heavy rain over Hispaniola on Wednesday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 71.2°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) south of Barahona, Dominican Republic. Franklin was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to the border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the north coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to the border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Turks and Caicos.

Tropical Storm Franklin was dropping heavy rain over parts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday morning. The center of Franklin made landfall on the south coast of the Dominican Republic south of Barahona. The heaviest rain was falling in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Franklin. Those bands were dropping heavy rain over the Dominican Republic. Those rainbands were also producing the strongest winds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Franklin. The winds in the western side of Franklin’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Franklin will move northward across Hispaniola during the rest of Wednesday. The mountains in Hispaniola will disrupt the lower part of Franklin’s circulation. The low level circulation around Tropical Storm Franklin could be very weak by the time it moves north of Hispaniola on Tuesday night. However, the middle and upper parts of Franklin’s circulation will pass above the mountains. The middle and upper parts of the circulation are likely to be relatively intact when they move over the Atlantic Ocean. Downdrafts could transport rotation back toward the surface, and Tropical Storm Franklin is forecast to start to reorganize north of Hispaniola later this week.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Harold was dropping rain over parts of West Texas and southern New Mexico. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Harold was located at latitude 28.6°N and longitude 102.1°W which put it about 235 miles (380 km) south of Midland, Texas. Harold was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.