Tag Archives: Turks and Caicos

Hurricane Melissa Brings Wind and Rain to the Bahamas

Hurricane Melissa was bringing wind and rain to the Bahamas on Wednesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Melissa was located at latitude 22.9°N and longitude 74.8°W which put the center about 20 miles (30 km) southeast of Clarence Town, Bahamas.  Melissa was moving toward the northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Central Bahamas and the Southeastern Bahamas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Turks and Caicos.

The circulation around Hurricane Melissa showed signs of reorganization on Friday afternoon.  However, passage over Jamaica and eastern Cuba significant changed the structure of the core of Melissa’s circulation.  A new large eye with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) formed at the center of Hurricane Melissa.  New thunderstorms were developing in a broken ring that surrounded the large eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in that broken ring of storms.  New thunderstorms were also forming in the bands revolving around the center of Melissa’s circulation.

The structural changes in the middle of Hurricane Melissa caused the size of the circulation to increase.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the eastern side of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the western side of Hurricane Melissa.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (300 km) in the eastern half of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) in the western half of Hurricane Melissa.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Melissa is 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 16.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 30.5.  Hurricane Melissa is similar in intensity to Hurricane Beryl when Beryl hit Texas in 2024.  Melissa is much larger than Beryl was.

Hurricane Melissa will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough over the eastern U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Melissa’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Melissa could intensify during the next 12 hours.  The upper level winds will get stronger on Thursday.  More vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Melissa to weaken.  The stronger wind shear will also cause Melissa to start a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Melissa toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Melissa will continue to move over the Bahamas during the next few hours.  Hurricane Melissa will be near Bermuda on Thursday night.

Hurricane Melissa will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Central and Southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday night.  Melissa could bring strong winds and heavy rain to Bermuda on Thursday night.

Hurricane Melissa Batters Eastern Cuba

Strong winds in Hurricane Melissa battered eastern Cuba early on Wednesday.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Melissa was located at latitude 20.6°N and longitude 75.7°W which put the center about 45 miles (75 km) northwest of Guantanamo, Cuba.  Melissa was moving toward the north-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Central Bahamas and the Southeastern Bahamas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Bermuda.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Haiti.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban province of Camaguey.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos.

After leaving a trail of destruction in Jamaica, Hurricane Melissa battered eastern Cuba early on Wednesday.  Melissa was still a major hurricane at the time is made the center of circulation landfall in the province of Santiago de Cuba.  Melissa started to weaken slowly again after the center moved over land.

Hurricane Melissa was still a powerful storm on Wednesday morning.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (300 km) in the eastern half of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the western side of Hurricane Melissa.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Melissa at the time of landfall was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.7. Hurricane Melissa was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit South Alabama in 2020.

Hurricane Melissa will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough over the eastern U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Melissa’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Hurricane Melissa is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours after it moves northeast of Cuba.

The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Melissa toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Melissa will move northeast of Cuba during the next few hours.  Hurricane Melissa will move over the Bahamas later today.  Melissa will be near Bermuda on Thursday night.

Hurricane Melissa will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to eastern Cuba during the next few hours.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some location.  Widespread electricity outages are likely in eastern Cuba.  Melissa will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Bahamas later today.

Hurricane Melissa Hits Jamaica

Hurricane Melissa hit Jamaica on Tuesday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Melissa was located at latitude 18.2°N and longitude 78.0°W which put the center about 20 miles 305 km) south-southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica.  Melissa was moving toward the north-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 899 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Central Bahamas and the Southeastern Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Haiti.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban province of Camaguey.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos.

Hurricane Melissa was at Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale at the time of landfall.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 185 m.p.h. (300 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 892 mb.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Melissa at the time of landfall was 44.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 55.5.  Hurricane Melissa was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dorian when Dorian hit the Bahamas in 2019.

Hurricane Melissa was still a Category 5 hurricane on Tuesday afternoon.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Melissa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Melissa.  Storms near the center of Melissa generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass in the upper levels was nearly balanced by a strong inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The near balance of inflow and outflow of mass caused the surface pressure to remain nearly very low during the past few hours.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Hurricane Melissa.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) in the eastern half of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western side of Hurricane Melissa.

An upper level trough over the southeastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Melissa toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the core of Hurricane Melissa will l move northeast across Jamaica.  Melissa will reach eastern Cuba early on Wednesday.  Hurricane Melissa will be over the Bahamas on Wednesday evening.

Hurricane Melissa will drop very heavy rain on Jamaica, Haiti and parts of the Dominican Republic.  Very heavy rain is likely to cause catastrophic floods in some locations.  Hurricane Melissa will also produce very strong winds in Jamaica.  Melissa will be capable of causing severe damage.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Infrastructure and transportation are likely to be severely damaged.  Melissa could produce a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along the south coast of Jamaica.

Hurricane Melissa will also bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Cuba, the Central and Southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Widespread electricity outages are also likely in eastern Cuba.

Hurricane Melissa Nears Jamaica

The core of Hurricane Melissa was nearing southwestern Jamaica on Tuesday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Melissa was located at latitude 17.7°N and longitude 78.1°W which put the center about 45 miles (75 km) south-southeast of Negril, Jamaica.  Melissa was moving toward the north-northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 185 m.p.h. (300 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 220 m.p.h. (355 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 892 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Central Bahamas and the Southeastern Bahamas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Turks and Caicos.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Haiti.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban province of Las Tunas.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos.

Winds to tropical storm force were already occurring in Jamaica even though the core of Hurricane Melissa was still southwest of Jamaica.  A weather station at the Norman Manley International Airport in Kingston reported a sustained wind speed of 43 m.p.h. (69 km/h) and a wind gust of 59 m.p.h. (93 km/h).  A weather station at the Sangster International Airport in Montego Bay reported a sustained wind speed of 38 m.p.h. (61 km/h) and a wind gust of 54 m.p.h. (87 km/h).  Heavy rain was already falling over parts of Jamaica.

The core of dangerous Hurricane Melissa was nearing the coast of southwestern Jamaica on Tuesday morning.  A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Melissa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Melissa.  Storms near the center of Melissa generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass in the upper levels was nearly balanced by a strong inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The near balance of inflow and outflow of mass caused the surface pressure to remain nearly steady during the past few hours.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Hurricane Melissa.   Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) in the eastern half of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western side of Hurricane Melissa.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Melissa is 44.1.  The Hurricane Size index (HSI) is 11.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 55.5.  Hurricane Melissa is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dorian when Dorian hit the Bahamas in 2019.

Hurricane Melissa will move through an environment favorable for a very powerful hurricane during the few hours until it makes landfall in Jamaica.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Melissa is likely to maintain its intensity until it makes landfall in Jamaica unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.  If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then the formation of concentric eyewalls would cause Melissa to start to weaken.

An upper level trough over the southeastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Melissa toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the core of Hurricane Melissa will reach southwestern Jamaica on Tuesday morning.  Melissa will move northeast across Jamaica during much of Tuesday.  Hurricane Melissa will reach eastern Cuba early on Wednesday.

Hurricane Melissa will drop very heavy rain on Jamaica, Haiti and parts of the Dominican Republic.  Very heavy rain is likely to cause catastrophic floods in some locations.  Hurricane Melissa will also produce very strong winds in Jamaica.  Melissa will be capable of causing severe damage.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Infrastructure and transportation are likely to be severely damaged.  Melissa could produce a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along the south coast of Jamaica.

Hurricane Melissa will also bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Cuba, the Central and Southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Widespread electricity outages are also likely in eastern Cuba.

Hurricane Melissa Turns Toward Jamaica

Hurricane Melissa started to make a slow turn toward Jamaica on Monday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Melissa was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 78.5°W which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) southwest of Kingston, Jamaica.  Melissa was moving toward the north-northeast at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 175 m.p.h. (285 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 205 m.p.h. (330 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 903 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Central Bahamas and the Southeastern Bahamas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Turks and Caicos.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Haiti.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban province of Las Tunas.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos.

Powerful Hurricane Melissa started a slow turn toward Jamaica on Monday evening.  A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Melissa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Melissa.  Storms near the center of Melissa generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass in the upper levels was nearly balanced by a strong inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The near balance of inflow and outflow of mass caused the surface pressure to remain nearly steady during the past few hours.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) in the eastern half of Hurricane Melissa.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western side of Melissa’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Melissa is 40.4.  The Hurricane Size index (HSI) is 11.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 51.8.  Hurricane Melissa is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Andrew when Andrew was at its peak intensity in 1992.

Hurricane Melissa will move through an environment favorable for a very powerful hurricane during the next 12 hours.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Melissa is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 12 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.  If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then the formation of concentric eyewalls would cause Melissa to weaken.

An upper level trough over the southeastern U.S. will start to steer Hurricane Melissa toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the core of Hurricane Melissa will reach southwestern Jamaica on Tuesday morning.  Melissa will move northeast across Jamaica during much of Tuesday.  Hurricane Melissa will reach eastern Cuba early on Wednesday.

Hurricane Melissa will drop very heavy rain on Jamaica, Haiti and parts of the Dominican Republic.  Very heavy rain is likely to cause catastrophic floods in some locations.  Hurricane Melissa will also produce very strong winds in Jamaica.  Melissa will be capable of causing severe damage.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Infrastructure and transportation are likely to be severely affected.  Melissa could produce a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along the south coast of Jamaica.

Hurricane Melissa will also bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Cuba, the Central and Southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Widespread electricity outages are also likely in eastern Cuba.

Hurricane Melissa Intensifies to Cat. 5

Hurricane Melissa intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale early on Monday.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Melissa was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 78.0°W which put the center about 135 miles (220 km) southwest of Kingston, Jamaica.  Melissa was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 913 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.

Hurricane Watches are in effect for the Central Bahamas, the Southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Haiti.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban province of Las Tunas.

Hurricane Melissa intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale early on Monday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Melissa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Melissa.  Storms near the center of Melissa generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) in the eastern half of Hurricane Melissa.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western side of Melissa’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Melissa is 35.0.  The Hurricane Size index (HSI) is 11.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 46.4.  Hurricane Melissa is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Andrew when Andrew made landfall in South Florida in 1992.

Hurricane Melissa will move through an environment favorable for a very powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Melissa could intensify during the next 24 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occur.  If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could cause Melissa to weaken.

The high pressure system that has been steering Hurricane Melissa slowly toward the west is likely to weaken during the next 24 hours.  When the high pressure system weakens, Melissa will start to move slowly toward the north.  On its anticipated track, the core of Hurricane Melissa will hit Jamaica early on Tuesday.

Hurricane Melissa will drop very heavy rain on Jamaica, Haiti and parts of the Dominican Republic.  Very heavy rain is likely to cause catastrophic floods in some locations.  Hurricane Melissa will also produce very strong winds in Jamaica.  Melissa will be capable of causing severe damage.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Melissa could produce a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along the south coast of Jamaica.

Hurricane Melissa will also bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Cuba, the Central and Southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos.

Hurricane Erin Prompts Watches for Outer Banks

The potential risks posed by Hurricane Erin prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch and a Storm Surge Watch for the North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Erin was located at latitude 24.0°N and longitude 71.3°W which put the center about 815 miles (1310 km) south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Erin was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina.  The Tropical Storm Watch includes Pamlico Sound.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Southeast Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Central Bahamas.

Hurricane Erin was maintaining its intensity on Monday afternoon.  A circular eye with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) was at the center of Erin’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Erin’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Erin were generating strong upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was approximately equal to the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere/  The balance of outflow and inflow of mass caused the surface pressure to remain nearly constant.

An earlier eyewall replacement cycle increased the size of the circulation around Hurricane Erin.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Erin’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) from the center of Hurricane Erin.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Erin is 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 24.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 52.7.  Hurricane Erin is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Helene in 2024.

Hurricane Erin will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Erin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Erin will move into a region of drier air on Tuesday.  The drier air is likely to cause Hurricane Erin to start to weaken slowly.

Hurricane Erin will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Erin toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Storm Erin will pass of the Bahamas on Tuesday.

The large circulation around Hurricane Erin will produce large waves that will move toward the east coast of the U.S.  Erin could cause a storm surge of up to four feet (one meter)  along the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  Mandatory evacuations have been ordered for Hatteras Island and Ocracoke Island.  The large waves could also cause significant beach erosion.  The large circulation around Hurricane Erin could also bring tropical storm force winds to the Outer Banks.

Bands in the western side of Hurricane Erin will continue to bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the Turks and Caicos and to the Southeast Bahamas until Erin moves farther away. The gusty winds and heavy rain could spread over the Central Bahamas on Tuesday.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Hurricane Erin Strengthens

Hurricane Erin strengthened again on Monday morning as it moved north of the Turks and Caicos.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Erin was located at latitude 23.1°N and longitude 70.8°W which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) north of Grand Turk Island.   Erin was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 935 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Southeast Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Central Bahamas.

Hurricane Erin began to strengthen again on Monday morning after it completed an eyewall replacement cycle.  A circular eye with a diameter of 37 miles (60 km) was at the center of Erin’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Erin’s circulation. Storms near the core of Erin were generating strong upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

The eyewall replacement cycle increased the size of the circulation around Hurricane Erin. Winds to hurricane force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Erin’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) from the center of Hurricane Erin.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Erin is 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 24.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 52.7.  Hurricane Erin is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Helene in 2024.

Hurricane Erin will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Erin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Erin could intensify during the next 12 hours.  Erin could move into a region of drier air on Tuesday.  The drier air would cause Hurricane Erin to start to weaken.

Hurricane Erin will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Erin toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Storm Erin will move east of the Bahamas on Tuesday.

Bands in the western side of Hurricane Erin is bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the Turks and Caicos and to the Southeast Bahamas.  The gusty winds and heavy rain could spread over the Central Bahamas on Tuesday.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Hurricane Erin Moves North of Dominican Republic

Hurricane Erin moved north of the Dominican Republic on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Erin was located at latitude 21.7°N and longitude 68.5°W which put the center about 200 miles (320 km) east of Grand Turk Island.  Erin was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Southeast Bahamas.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around an existing eye and eyewall in the core of Hurricane Erin.  Concentric eyewalls formed.  Hurricane Erin weakened as the inflow became concentrated in the outer eyewall and the inner eyewall started to weaken.  The inner eyewall was still visible in satellite and radar images.  The presence of concentric eyewalls means that Hurricane Erin is still in an eyewall replacement cycle.

The outer eyewall in Hurricane Erin has a diameter of 45 miles (75 km).  Bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of Erin’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Erin are generating strong upper level divergence that is pumping mass away from the hurricane.

The formation of concentric eyewalls increased the size of the circulation around Hurricane Erin.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Erin’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of Hurricane Erin.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Erin is 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 38.2.  Hurricane Erin is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey in 2017.

Hurricane Erin will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Erin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The eyewall replacement cycle is likely to prevent Hurricane Erin from intensifying quickly.  However, once the inner eyewall dissipates and the outer eyewall starts to contract, Erin could strengthen rapidly.

Hurricane Erin will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Erin toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Storm Erin will pass northeast of the Turks and Caicos and the Southeast Bahamas on Monday.

Bands in the western side of Hurricane Erin could bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the Turks and Caicos and to the Southeast Bahamas.  Bands in the southern side of Erin’s circulation could drop heavy rain on parts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Oscar Develops Rapidly Southeast of the Bahamas

Hurricane Oscar developed rapidly over the Atlantic Ocean southeast of the Bahamas on Saturday afternoon.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Oscar was located at latitude 21.4°N and longitude 70.6°W which put the center about 165 miles (265 km) east-southeast of the Southeastern Bahamas.  Oscar was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos, and the Southeastern Bahamas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin and Las Tunas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban province of Camaguey.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane found that a low pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean southeast of the Bahamas had rapidly developed into a hurricane on Saturday afternoon.  Based on data gather by the reconnaissance flight, the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Hurricane Oscar.

The circulation around Hurricane Oscar was very small.  A very small eye with a diameter of 4 miles (6 km) was at the center of Oscar’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Short bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Oscar.  Storms near the center of Oscar generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Oscar was very small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 5 miles (8 km) on the northern side of Oscar’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hurricane Oscar.

Hurricane Oscar will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Oscar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the eastern end of an upper level ridge over the Bahamas.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Oscar’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Oscar is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Oscar will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Oscar toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Oscar will move over the Turks and Caicos and the Southeastern Bahamas.  Oscar could approach eastern Cuba on Sunday night.

Hurricane Oscar will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the Turks and Caicos and the Southeastern Bahamas.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Nadine brought strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 88.5°W which put the center about 20 miles (30 km) west-northwest of Belize City, Belize.  Nadine was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Belize City,, Belize to Cancun, Mexico.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Cozumel.