Tag Archives: Oscar

Oscar Strengthens Into a Hurricane Southeast of Bermuda

One time subtropical storm and former Tropical Storm Oscar strengthened into a hurricane southeast of Bermuda on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Oscar was located at latitude 25.7°N and longitude 55.5°W which put it about 725 miles (1165 km) southeast of Bermuda.  Oscar was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A small eye formed at the center of former Tropical Storm Oscar and the National Hurricane Center upgraded Oscar to a hurricane.  A thin ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several short bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Oscar.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Oscar is relatively small.  Winds to hurricane force extend out only about 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 115 miles (185 km) from the center.

Hurricane Oscar will move through an environment favorable for intensification for another day or two.  Oscar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Because of its relatively small circulation, Hurricane Oscar could intensify rapidly while it is in a favorable environment.  Oscar will get stronger during the next 36 to 48 hours and some models are forecasting that it will become a major hurricane.  An upper level trough moving off the East Coast of the U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will cause the vertical wind shear to increase by Wednesday.

Hurricane Oscar will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean on Monday and Tuesday.  The ridge will steer Oscar toward the west for another 12 to 24 hours.  Hurricane Oscar will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Oscar will pass east of Bermuda on Tuesday.  The upper level trough will steer Oscar rapidly toward the northeast on Wednesday.

Oscar Transitions to a Tropical Storm

Former Subtropical Storm Oscar transitioned to a tropical storm on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located at latitude 25.7°N and longitude 51.4°W which put it about 930 miles (1495 km) east-southeast of Bermuda.  Oscar was moving toward the west-southwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

The structure of the circulation of former Subtropical Storm Oscar changed to a shape more like a tropical cyclone and the National Hurricane Center reclassified Oscar as a tropical storm.  A band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped more tightly around the eastern side of the center of circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring about 30 miles (50 km) from the center.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were starting to form in the eastern half of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Oscar will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Oscar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  An upper level low southeast of Oscar will produce northerly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical storm.  However, the core of Tropical Storm Oscar will remain south of the strongest upper level winds on Sunday.  Tropical Storm Oscar could intensify into a hurricane by Monday.

The upper level low is steering Tropical Storm Oscar quickly toward the west-southwest.  That motion is forecast to continue for anther 24 hours.  A large upper level trough over the eastern U.S.  will produce southwesterly winds which will start to turn Oscar toward the northeast in about 36 to 48 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Oscar could be southeast of Bermuda on Monday night.

Subtropical Storm Oscar Develops East of Bermuda

Subtropical Storm Oscar developed east of Bermuda on Friday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Subtropical Storm Oscar was located at latitude 26.7°N and longitude 45.7°W which put it about 1210 miles (1940 km) east-southeast of Bermuda.  Oscar was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gust to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface temperature was 1005 mb.

More thunderstorms developed closer to the center of a low pressure system east-southeast of Bermuda on Friday night and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Subtropical Storm Oscar.  The strongest winds were occurring in a band of showers and thunderstorms about 80 to 100 miles (130 to 160 km) east of the center of the low pressure system.  Several other bands were forming southeast of the center of circulation.  Bands in other parts of Subtropical Storm Oscar consisted primarily of showers and low clouds.

Subtropical Storm Oscar will move through an area somewhat favorable for intensification.  Oscar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  An upper level low will move just to the south of Subtropical Storm Oscar.  The upper level low will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the subtropical storm.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification on Saturday.  In a day or so Oscar will move northwest of the upper level low and the vertical wind shear will decrease.

The upper level low will steer Subtropical Storm Oscar toward the north-northwest on Saturday.  When Oscar moves farther way from the upper level low, it will move south of a ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will steer Subtropical Storm Oscar toward the west on Sunday and into early next week.  On its anticipated track Subtropical Storm Oscar could be southeast of Bermuda by Monday night.