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Ernesto Strengthens to a Hurricane Northwest of Puerto Rico

Former Tropical Storm Ernesto strengthened to a hurricane northwest of Puerto Rico on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located at latitude 20.5°N and longitude 70.6°W which put the center about 175 miles (285 km) northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico.  Ernesto was moving toward the northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the British Virgin Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Culebra and Vieques.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that formed Tropical Storm Ernesto had strengthened to a hurricane northwest of Puerto Rico on Wednesday morning.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Hurricane Ernesto.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Ernesto.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Hurricane Ernesto.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) from the center of Ernesto’s circulation.

Hurricane Ernesto will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ernesto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level  winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Ernesto will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Ernesto will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ernesto toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Ernesto will move away from Puerto Rico.  Ernesto could approach Bermuda on Friday night.

Tropical Storm Ernesto Brings Wind and Rain to the Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Ernesto brought wind and rain to the Leeward Islands on Tuesday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 61.9°W which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) northwest of Guadeloupe.  Ernesto was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Guadeloupe, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, St, Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, Sint Maarten, the British Virgin Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto on Tuesday morning.  Those thunderstorms generated more upper level divergence that removed mass from the tropical storm.  The removal of more mass cause the surface pressure to decrease.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Ernesto’s circulation

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Storm Ernesto.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northern side of Ernesto’s circulation.  The winds in the southern part of Ernesto were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ernesto will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ernesto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the subtropical Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ernesto’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Ernesto will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Ernesto will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical wave quickly toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Ernesto will reach Puerto Rico on Tuesday night.

Tropical Storm Ernesto will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Leeward Islands, the British Virgin Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  The winds could be strong enough to cause localized outages of electricity.  Ernesto could also cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1 meter).

 

 

Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms East of the Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Ernesto formed east of the Leeward Islands on Monday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 57.5°W which put the center about 295 miles (475 km) east-southeast of Antigua.  Ernesto was moving toward the west-northwest at 28 m.p.h. (44 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Guadeloupe, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, St, Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, Sint Maarten, the British Virgin Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a distinct low level center of circulation in a tropical wave previously designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Ernesto.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms began to revolve around the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Ernesto started to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The reconnaissance plane also found that tropical storm force winds extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Ernesto.  The winds in the other parts of Ernesto’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ernesto will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ernesto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the subtropical Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will produce strong easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical wave.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear is not enough to stop intensification. Tropical Storm Ernesto is likely to intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Ernesto will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical wave quickly toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, ‘Tropical Storm Ernesto could reach the Leeward Islands early on Tuesday.  Ernesto could be near Puerto Rico on Tuesday night.

Tropical Storm Ernesto will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Leeward Islands, the British Virgin Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  The winds could be strong enough to cause localized outages of electricity.  Ernesto could also cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1 meter).

 

Tropical Storm Warnings Issued for Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico

The potential risk posed by a tropical wave currently designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Five prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Warnings for the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico on Monday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 55.6°W which put the center about 435 miles (700 km) east-southeast of Antigua.  The tropical wave was moving toward the west at 26 m.p.h. (43 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Guadeloupe, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, St, Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, Sint Maarten, the British Virgin Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques.

A tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles that is currently designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Five exhibited more organization on Monday morning.  However, a NOAA aircraft investigating the tropical wave did not find a well defined low level center of circulation.  More thunderstorms formed near the axis of the tropical wave.  A large counterclockwise rotation associated with the tropical wave strengthened a little on Monday morning.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms appeared to be forming in parts of the tropical wave.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five will move through an environment somewhat favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  The tropical wave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the subtropical Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will produce strong easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical wave.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will slow the organization of the tropical wave into a tropical cyclone.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is likely to organize gradually into a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical wave quickly toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five could approach the Leeward Islands on Monday night.  It could be near Puerto Rico on Tuesday night.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five could be a tropical storm when it reaches the Leeward Islands.  It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Leeward Islands, the British Virgin Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  The winds could be strong enough to cause localized outages of electricity.

 

Hurricane Fiona Drops Heavy Rain on Puerto Rico

Hurricane Fiona dropped heavy rain on Puerto Rico on Sunday and there were numerous reports of floods. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Fiona was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 68.1°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) south-southeast of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic. Fiona was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Puerto Rico, Culebra and Vieques. A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo Frances Viejo, Domincan Republic. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Turks and Caicos. A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana and the Ragged Islands. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Caucedo to Barahona, Dominican Republic.

The eye of Hurricane Fiona was over the Mona Passage between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic on Sunday night. The eye passed over the southwestern tip of Puerto Rico on Sunday afternoon. Heavy rain fell over much of Puerto Rico and there were many reports of flash floods. There were also reports of wind damage in parts of Puerto Rico and electricity was unavailable in most places.

Hurricane Fiona was strengthening gradually on Sunday night. An eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Fiona. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Fiona. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Fiona. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Fiona will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Fiona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. The center of Hurricane Fiona could pass over eastern Dominican Republic on Monday. Since some of the circulation around Hurricane Fiona will pass over land, that could cause Fiona to weaken when the center is near land. Fiona will be in an environment very favorable for intensification when it moves north of the Dominican Republic. It could rapidly intensify to a major hurricane early next week.

Hurricane Fiona will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fiona toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Fiona could make landfall in the eastern Dominican Republic near Punta Cana on Monday morning. Bands in the eastern side of Fiona’s circulation will continue to drop locally heavy rain on Puerto Rico on Monday. Hurricane Fiona will also bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the eastern part of the Dominican Republic early on Monday.

Tropical Storm Fiona Moves Closer to Puerto Rico

Tropical Storm Fiona moved closer to Puerto Rico on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 64.9°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) south of St. Croix. Fiona was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Puerto Rico, Culebra and Vieques. A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo Frances Viejo, Domincan Republic. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands. A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands, and the portion of the coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Caucedo to Barahona, Dominican Republic.

Tropical Storm Fiona was gradually getting better organized on Saturday night. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of circulation. Radar on Puerto Rico showed that an eye could be forming at the center of Fiona’s circulation. Storms near the center generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass was allowing the surface pressure to slowly decrease. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Fiona.

Tropical Storm Fiona will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fiona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. An upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Fiona. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Fiona could continue to strengthen gradually, but the wind shear will likely limit intensification during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Fiona will move around the southwestern side of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fiona toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Fiona will be near the southwestern part of Puerto Rico by Sunday evening. Bands in the eastern and northern sides of Fiona’s circulation will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands on Sunday. Fiona could begin to affect the eastern part of the Dominican Republic during Sunday night.

Tropical Storm Fiona Brings Wind and Rain to the Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Fiona brought wind and rain to the Leeward Islands on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 62.2°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) west-northwest of Guadeloupe. Fiona was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Anguilla, Guadeloupe, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, the U.S. Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands and the portion of the coast from Cabo Caucedo to Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Dominica and for the portion of the coast from Cabo Caucedo to Barahona, Dominican Republic.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of Tropical Storm Fiona on Friday night which caused Fiona to strengthen. Although there were more thunderstorms near the center of circulation, most of the thunderstorms were still occurring in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Fiona. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The new thunderstorms near the center of Fiona generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Fiona.

Tropical Storm Fiona will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fiona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. An upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Fiona. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Fiona could continue to strengthen gradually, but the wind shear will limit intensification during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Fiona will move around the southern side of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fiona toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours. Tropical Storm Fiona will continue to cause gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the northern Leeward Islands during the next 12 hours. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fiona could be southeast of Puerto Rico by Saturday evening. Fiona could be near the eastern end of the Dominican Republic by Sunday evening. There is a chance that Fiona could be a hurricane by that time.

Tropical Storm Fiona Approaches the Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Fiona approached the Leeward Islands on Friday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 60.3°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) east of Guadeloupe. Fiona was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Anguilla, Guadeloupe, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the British Virgin Islands. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Dominica and the portion of the coast from Cabo Engano to Cabo Frances Viejo, Dominican Republic.

Tropical Storm Fiona was nearing the Leeward Islands on Friday afternoon. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Fiona continued to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Fiona’s circulation. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Storm Fiona was moving under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The ridge was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Fiona’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Fiona.

Tropical Storm Fiona will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fiona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean will continue to cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Fiona could strengthen a little, but the wind shear will limit intensification during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Fiona will move around the southern side of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fiona toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fiona will move over the Leeward Islands on Friday evening. Fiona will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the northern Leeward Islands. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Storm Fiona could be southeast of Puerto Rico by Saturday evening.

Tropical Storm Fiona Prompts Watch for Puerto Rico

The potential effects of Tropical Storm Fiona prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Thursday afternoon. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the northern Leeward Islands. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located at latitude 16.3°N and longitude 55.4°W which put it about 425 miles (685 km) east of the Leeward Islands. Fiona was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Anguilla, Guadeloupe, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the British Virgin Islands.

Tropical Storm Fiona continued to be affected by strong vertical wind shear on Thursday afternoon. The center of Fiona was surrounded by a swirl of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern edge of Fiona’s circulation. Tropical Storm Fiona was under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The upper level ridge was producing westerly winds that were blowing across the top of Fiona’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear and the wind shear was blowing the tops off of many of the thunderstorms that start to develop. The vertical wind shear was causing the low level circulation around Tropical Storm Fiona to look a little less organized. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Fiona’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Fiona will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Fiona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean will continue to cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Fiona could weaken if the upper level winds get stronger. The upper level winds could be weaker when Fiona moves over the northeastern Caribbean Sea during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Fiona will move around the southern side of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fiona toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fiona could approach the Leeward Islands on Friday afternoon. Fiona could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the northern Leeward Islands. Tropical Storm Fiona could be southeast of Puerto Rico by Saturday evening.

Tropical Storm Grace Brings Wind and Rain to Lesser Antilles

Tropical Storm Grace brought wind and rain to the Lesser Antilles on Saturday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 62.4°W which put it about 170 miles (280 km) east-southeast of St. Croix. Grace was moving toward the west at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (56 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Puerto Rico including Culebra and Vieques and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Martin, St.Bathelemy and St. Maarten. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Caucedo to Samana, Dominican Republic. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from Cabo Caucedo, Dominican Republic to the southern border with Haiti and from Samana, Dominican Republic to the northern border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the entire coast of Haiti.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Grace was not very well organized on Saturday evening. There was a broad low level center of circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Grace. Bands on the eastern side of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Strong easterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere were pushing the lower part of Tropical Storm Grace to the west of the middle and upper parts of the circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the shear was contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) on the northern side of Grace. Winds in the southern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Grace will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Grace will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. The winds in the lower levels could weaken a little and there could be a little less vertical wind shear. If the wind shear decreases, it could allow Tropical Storm Grace to become better organized.

Tropical Storm Grace will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Grace toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Grace could approach Puerto Rico by Sunday afternoon. Grace could approach the Dominican Republic on Sunday night.

Elsewhere, the remnants of former Tropical Depression Fred were slowly reorganizing northwest of Cuba. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of former Tropical Depression Fred was located at latitude 23.8°N and longitude 84.3°W which put it about 125 miles (200 km) west-northwest of Havana, Cuba. The remnants of Fred were moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.

The remnants of former Tropical Depression Fred are forecast to reorganize on Sunday and to strengthen back to a tropical storm. Fred is forecast to move toward the northern Gulf Coast. Watches and warnings could be issued for a portion of the coast on Sunday.