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Hurricane Milton Moves Toward West Coast of Florida

Hurricane Milton was moving toward the west coast of Florida on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Milton was located at latitude 25.8°N and longitude 84.3°W which put the center about 190 miles (305 km) southwest of Tampa, Florida.  Milton was moving toward the northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (275 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 931 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Hurricane Warning includes Tampa Bay.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach to the Mouth of the St. Mary’s River, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Martin/Palm Beach County Line, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Bonita Beach, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the St. Lucie/Martin County Line, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to Savannah River, Georgia.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the extreme Northwestern Bahamas including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos and Bimini.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Savannah River, Georgia to the South Santee River, South Carolina.

Hurricane Milton started to weaken gradually on Wednesday morning, but Milton was still a powerful, dangerous hurricane.  An upper level trough over the southern Mississippi River Valley was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Milton’s circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The upper level winds were also inhibiting the upper level divergence to the west of Hurricane Milton.  The wind shear was causing Hurricane Milton to weaken gradually.

Even though Hurricane Milton was weakening gradually, it was still a major hurricane.  A small circular eye was present at the center of Milton’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and northern parts of Hurricane Milton.  Bands in the southern and western parts of Milton’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Milton generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the hurricane.

Although Hurricane Milton is weakening, the circulation around Milton is getting larger.  Winds to hurricane force extend out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Milton’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Hurricane Milton.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Milton is 29.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 44.3.  Hurricane Milton is similar in intensity to Hurricane Charley when Charley hit southwest Florida in 2004.  Milton is much larger than Charley was.

Hurricane Milton will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Milton will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However, the upper level trough over the southern Mississippi River Valley will continue to cause moderate to strong vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will cause Hurricane Milton to weaken gradually during the next 12 hours.

The upper level trough over the southern Mississippi River Valley will steer Hurricane Milton toward the northeast east during the next 12 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Milton will make landfall on Wednesday night on the west coast of Florida near or just to the south of Tampa.

Even though Hurricane Milton will weaken today, Milton is still expected to be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Florida.  Milton will bring strong gusty winds and heavy rain to the west coast of Florida.  Milton will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Florida.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for many of the counties in Central Florida.  Those Hurricane Warnings include Orlando.

Milton will be capable of causing major damage.  Heavy rains will cause floods in some locations. Widespread electricity outages are likely.

Flood Watches are in effect for much of the Florida Peninsula.

Milton will also produce a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) along the west coast of Florida.  The highest storm surge is likely to occur along the portion of the coast just to the south of Tampa>  A storm surge of 8 to 12 feet (2,4 to 3.7 meters) could occur in Tampa Bay.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the Yankeetown, Florida.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.  A Storm Surge Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to Edisto Beach, South Carolina.

Thunderstorms in bands in the eastern periphery of Hurricane Milton were already producing tornadoes over South Florida.  A Tornado Watch is in effect for the southern half of the Florida Peninsula.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Leslie intensified east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Leslie was located at latitude 21.7°N and longitude 48.4°W which put the center about 985 miles (1585 km) east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Leslie was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Storm Helene Brings Heavy Rain and Floods to Southeast U.S.

Tropical Storm Helene brought heavy rain and floods to parts of the southeast U.S. on Friday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located at latitude 35.1°N and longitude 83.8°W which put the center about 30 miles (50 km) southwest of Bryson City, North Carolina.  Helene was moving toward the north at 32 m.p.h. (52 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Savannah River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South Carolina.

Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for inland locations in South Carolina, eastern Georgia, western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee. 

Even though former Hurricane Helene weakened to a tropical storm as it moved over the southeastern U.S. on Friday, Helene still was dropping very heavy rain.  Heavy rain fell over parts of Georgia, South Carolina, western North Carolina, eastern Tennessee, and western Virginia.  The heavy rain caused rivers and streams to rise quickly in those areas and numerous flash flood and flood warnings were issued.

The Catawba River at Pleasant Gardens, North Carolina was at Record Flood level.  The Saluda River at Greenville, South Carolina was at Major Flood level.  The French Broad River at Blantyre, North Carolina was at Record Flood level.  The Pigeon River at Canton, North Carolina was at Record Flood level.  The Pigeon River at Newport, Tennessee was at Major Flood level.  The Swannanoa River at Biltmore, North Carolina was at Record Flood level.  Numerous other rivers and streams in the region were also flooding.  Many roads were impassible.

Over four million customers in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina were experiencing electricity outages.

Tropical Storm Helene will move around the eastern side of an upper level low over the middle Mississippi River Valley.  The upper level low will steer Helene toward the north during the next 24 hours.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Helene will gradually merge with the circulation around the upper level low.

Tropical Storm Helene will continue to drop heavy rain on the southern Appalachians.  the heavy rain is likely to cause additional flash floods.  Helene will also bring gusty winds as far north as southern and central Ohio on Friday afternoon and evening.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, former Tropical Storm Isaac intensified to a hurricane west of the Azores and Tropical Storm Joyce formed east of the Northern Leeward Islands.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Isaac was located at latitude 37.4°N and longitude 46.8°W which put the center about 1080 miles (1740 km) west of the Azores.  Isaac was moving toward the east-northeast at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 42.9°W which put the center about 1325 miles (2130 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Joyce was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Helene Prompts Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings for Florida

The risk posed by Tropical Storm Helene prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Warning and a Storm Surge Warning for the west coast of Florida.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located at latitude 19.7°N and longitude 84.7°W which put the center about 155 miles (250 km) east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico.  Helene was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico.  That Hurricane Warning includes Cancun and Cozumel.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Englewood, Florida.  The Hurricane Watch includes Tampa Bay.  A Hurricane Watch is also in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Flamingo, Florida.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Tampa Bay.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line, Florida to Savannah River, Georgia.

Tropical Storm Helene strengthened on Tuesday afternoon.  The center of Helene’s circulation was near NOAA buoy 42056.  The buoy measured a surface pressure of 996 mb.

The inner end of a rainband started to wrap around the center of Tropical Storm Helene.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Helene’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Helene.  Storms near the center of Helene’s circulation generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Even though Tropical Storm Helene was strengthening, the distribution of wind speeds around Helene was still asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Helene.  The winds in the western side of Helene’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Helene will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Helene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico and the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Helene will intensify during the next 24 hours. Helene is likely to strengthen to a hurricane by Wednesday morning.  Helene could intensify rapidly after an inner core with an eye and an eyewall develops.

Tropical Storm Helene will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Helene toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Helene will be near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday morning.  Helene will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.  Helene is likely to approach northern Florida on Thursday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Helene is likely to be a hurricane when it reaches the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula.  Helene will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula and to western Cuba.

Tropical Storm Helene could be a major hurricane when it approaches northern Florida on Thursday.  Helene will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Florida.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods.  Helene could also cause a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) along portions of the west coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Flamingo, Florida.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

Tropical Storm Debby Strengthens

Tropical Storm Debby strengthened over the Atlantic Ocean southeast of South Carolina on Wednesday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located at latitude 32.4°N and longitude 79.1°W which put the center about 55 miles (90 km) east-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina.  Debby was moving toward the northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Savannah River Georgia to Surf City, North Carolina.  The Tropical Storm Warning included Charleston, South Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Surf City to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina.

Tropical Storm Debby strengthened on Wednesday morning as it moved slowly over the Atlantic Ocean southeast of South Carolina.  A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found winds to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) in a band more than 100 miles (160 km) southeast of the center of Debby’s circulation.  The winds in the other parts of Tropical Storm Debby were not as strong.

More thunderstorms began to form in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Debby after more of Debby’s circulation moved over the Atlantic Ocean.  There were only a few thunderstorms near the center of Debby’s circulation because drier air was still present in the middle of that circulation.  However, more water vapor was evaporating into the air and the air was becoming moister.  Some of the thunderstorms in Debby started to generate more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The distribution of wind speed around Tropical Storm Debby was very asymmetrical.  The strongest winds were occurring in the southeastern quadrant of Debby’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (300 km) in the southeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Debby.  Winds to tropical storm force extended 140 miles (225 km) in the northeastern and southwestern quadrants of Debby’s circulation.  The winds in the northwestern quadrant of Tropical Storm Debby were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Debby will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Debby will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the southeastern U.S.  The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The drier air in the middle part of Debby’s circulation will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Debby could continue to intensify slowly during the next few hours.

Tropical Storm Debby will move around the western side of high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Debby slowly toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Debby will approach the coast of South Carolina on Wednesday night.

Tropical Storm Debby will continue to drop heavy rain on parts of South Carolina, North Carolina and eastern Georgia.   Since Debby will move slowly, persistent heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of South Carolina, North Carolina and eastern Georgia.

Southerly winds blowing around the eastern side of Tropical Storm Debby will continue to push water toward the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina.  Debby could cause a storm surge of up to 6 feet (1.8 meters).

 

 

Nicole Transitions to Tropical Storm, Hurricane Warning Issued for Florida

Former Subtropical Storm Nicole completed a transition to a tropical storm on Tuesday morning and a Hurricane Warning was issued for a portion of the east coast of Florida. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located at latitude 27.8°N and longitude 72.7°W which put it about 460 miles (740 km) east of West Palm Beach, Florida. Nicole was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boca Raton to the Flagler/ Volusia County Line, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included West Palm Beach, Ft. Pierce, Melbourne and Daytona Beach. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini and Grand Bahama Island. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton, Florida. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Andros Island, New Providence and Eleuthera. A Tropcial Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Jacksonville. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hallandale Beach to Ocean Reef, Florida. The Tropical Storm Watch included Miami. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound to Savannah River, Georgia.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of former Subtropical Storm Nicole’s circulation. Thunderstorms near the center of circulation is one of the characteristics of a tropical storm. When the thunderstorms near the center persisted, the National Hurricane Center indicated that Nicole had complete a transition to a tropical storm. There was still a large area of tropical storm force winds around Nicole. Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 380 miles (615 km) in the northern side of Tropical Storm Nicole. Those winds were not entirely being produced by Nicole’s circulation. A large surface high pressure system was over the northeastern U.S. The high pressure system was interacting with the northern side of Nicole’s circulation to generate the large area of tropical storm force winds.

Tropical Storm Nicole will move through an environment that is favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Nicole will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weaker and the vertical wind shear will diminish. Tropical Storm Nicole is likely to intensify gradually during the next 12 hours. Nicole will move over warmer water when it moves over the Gulf Stream on Wednesday. Nicole will extract more energy from the warmer water and it is likely to strengthen more rapidly on Wednesday. Tropical Storm Nicole could intensify to a hurricane when it moves over the warmer water.

The surface high pressure system currently over the northeastern U.S. will block Tropical Storm Nicole from moving toward the north. The high pressure system will steer Nicole toward the west-southwest during the next 18 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nicole will reach the Northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday morning. Nicole will move toward the west-northwest on Wednesday when it reaches the southwestern part of the high pressure system. Nicole will reach the east coast of Florida on Wednesday night. Nicole could be a hurricane when it reaches Florida. Nicole is likely to bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Northwestern Bahamas and to central and northern Florida. The winds in the northern side of Nicole will blow water toward the coast of Florida and the Southeast U.S. Those winds will cause a storm surge and serious beach erosion when Nicole moves toward the coast.

Ian Strengthens Back to a Hurricane

One time major hurricane and former Tropical Storm Ian strengthened back to a hurricane over the Atlantic Ocean east of Florida on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Ian was located at latitude 29.3°N and longitude 79.9°W which put it about 240 miles (390 km) south of Charleston South Carolina. Ian was moving toward the north-northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Savannah River, Georgia to Cape Fear, North Carolina. The Hurricane Warning included Charleston, South Carolina. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Fear to Surf City, North Carolina. A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida to Savannah River, Georgia. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina. The Tropical Storm Warning included Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Vero Beach, Florida to Savannah River, Georgia.

The structure of Hurricane Ian contains elements of a hurricane and elements of an extratropical cyclone. Ian has a warm core in the middle and upper troposphere, which makes it a hurricane. However, cooler, drier air wrapped around the southern side of Ian and a cold front is forming east of Ian. The developing cold front is an element of an extratropical cyclone. Many of the thunderstorms in Hurricane Ian are occurring in bands in the northern and western parts of Ian’s circulation.

The wind field around Hurricane Ian also changed when Ian started a transition to an extratropical cyclones. The circulation around Ian is interacting with a large high pressure system centered over the Great Lakes. The interaction of Ian’s circulation with the high pressure system is causing the strongest winds to be in the northwestern quadrant of Hurricane Ian. Winds to hurricane force extend out 45 miles (75 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Ian. The size of the circulation around Hurricane Ian also increased when it started the transition to an extratropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extend out 400 miles (645 km) in the eastern side of Ian. Winds to tropical storm force extend out 230 miles (370 km) in the western side.

Hurricane Ian will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ian’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Hurricane Ian could intensify, if the center moves over the warm water in the Gulf Stream current. More thunderstorms could form near the center of Ian’s circulation and could look more like a hurricane for a few hours. The vertical wind shear will eventually cause Hurricane Ian to gradually continue its transformation to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Ian toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center Hurricane Ian could make landfall in South Carolina on Friday afternoon. Ian is likely to be a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale when it reaches South Carolina. Ian will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Widespread minor wind damage and electricity outages could occur. Air revolving around the northern side of Ian’s circulation will interact with a stationary front near the coast to enhance the rising motion in that region. The enhanced rising motion could produce very heavy rainfall near the stationary front. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches are in effect for parts of South Carolina and North Carolina. Southeasterly winds blowing around the northeastern side of Hurricane Ian will blow water toward the coast. A storm surge of 4 to 7 feet (1.2 to 2.0 meters) could occur. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida to Cape Fear, North Carolina.