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Hurricane Ian Approaches South Carolina

Hurricane Ian approached the coast of South Carolina on Friday morning. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Ian was located at latitude 31.4°N and longitude 79.1°W which put it about 105 miles (165 km) south-southeast of Charleston South Carolina. Ian was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Savannah River, Georgia to Cape Fear, North Carolina. The Hurricane Warning included Charleston, South Carolina. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Fear to Surf City, North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina. The Tropical Storm Warning included Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound to Savannah River, Georgia.

Hurricane Ian did not have the typical structure of a tropical hurricane on Friday morning. Ian was in the middle of a transition to an extratropical cyclone. The circulation around Hurricane Ian was also interacting with a stationary front near the coast of the Carolinas. The result of these factors was that the strongest winds were occurring in the western side of Ian’s circulation. Winds to hurricane force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the western side of Hurricane Ian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 480 miles (775 km) in the northeaster quadrant of Ian. Tropical storm force winds extended out 185 miles (300 km) in the other parts of Ian’s circulation. The interaction with the stationary front was also causing the heaviest rain to fall in the northern half of Hurricane Ian.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Ian is 12.7. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 20.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 33.3. Hurricane Ian is capable of causing widespread minor damage.

Hurricane Ian will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Ian’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Hurricane Ian could get a little stronger before it makes landfall in South Carolina. The vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Ian to continue its transformation to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Ian toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center Hurricane Ian could make landfall in South Carolina between Charleston and Myrtle Beach on Friday afternoon. Ian will be a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale when it reaches South Carolina. Ian will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain. If Ian makes landfall east of Charleston, the the strongest winds will affect that city. Widespread minor wind damage and electricity outages could occur. Air revolving around the northern side of Ian’s circulation will interact with the stationary front near the coast to enhance the rising motion in that region. The enhanced rising motion could produce heavy rainfall near the stationary front. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches are in effect for parts of South Carolina and North Carolina. Southeasterly winds blowing around the northeastern side of Hurricane Ian will blow water toward the coast. A storm surge of 4 to 7 feet (1.2 to 2.0 meters) could occur. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Savannah River, Georgia to Cape Fear, North Carolina. Serious coastal erosion is likely.

Ian Strengthens Back to a Hurricane

One time major hurricane and former Tropical Storm Ian strengthened back to a hurricane over the Atlantic Ocean east of Florida on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Ian was located at latitude 29.3°N and longitude 79.9°W which put it about 240 miles (390 km) south of Charleston South Carolina. Ian was moving toward the north-northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Savannah River, Georgia to Cape Fear, North Carolina. The Hurricane Warning included Charleston, South Carolina. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Fear to Surf City, North Carolina. A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida to Savannah River, Georgia. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina. The Tropical Storm Warning included Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Vero Beach, Florida to Savannah River, Georgia.

The structure of Hurricane Ian contains elements of a hurricane and elements of an extratropical cyclone. Ian has a warm core in the middle and upper troposphere, which makes it a hurricane. However, cooler, drier air wrapped around the southern side of Ian and a cold front is forming east of Ian. The developing cold front is an element of an extratropical cyclone. Many of the thunderstorms in Hurricane Ian are occurring in bands in the northern and western parts of Ian’s circulation.

The wind field around Hurricane Ian also changed when Ian started a transition to an extratropical cyclones. The circulation around Ian is interacting with a large high pressure system centered over the Great Lakes. The interaction of Ian’s circulation with the high pressure system is causing the strongest winds to be in the northwestern quadrant of Hurricane Ian. Winds to hurricane force extend out 45 miles (75 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Ian. The size of the circulation around Hurricane Ian also increased when it started the transition to an extratropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extend out 400 miles (645 km) in the eastern side of Ian. Winds to tropical storm force extend out 230 miles (370 km) in the western side.

Hurricane Ian will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ian’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Hurricane Ian could intensify, if the center moves over the warm water in the Gulf Stream current. More thunderstorms could form near the center of Ian’s circulation and could look more like a hurricane for a few hours. The vertical wind shear will eventually cause Hurricane Ian to gradually continue its transformation to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Ian toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center Hurricane Ian could make landfall in South Carolina on Friday afternoon. Ian is likely to be a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale when it reaches South Carolina. Ian will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Widespread minor wind damage and electricity outages could occur. Air revolving around the northern side of Ian’s circulation will interact with a stationary front near the coast to enhance the rising motion in that region. The enhanced rising motion could produce very heavy rainfall near the stationary front. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches are in effect for parts of South Carolina and North Carolina. Southeasterly winds blowing around the northeastern side of Hurricane Ian will blow water toward the coast. A storm surge of 4 to 7 feet (1.2 to 2.0 meters) could occur. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida to Cape Fear, North Carolina.

Tropical Storm Colin Forms on South Carolina Coast

Tropical Storm Colin formed on the coast of South Carolina on Saturday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Colin was located at latitude 33.6°N and longitude 79.3°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) west-southwest of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. Colin was moving toward the northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from South Santee River, South Carolina to Duck, North Carolina.

A small low pressure system dropped heavy rain over the area around Charleston, South Carolina on Friday. An area of winds to tropical storm force was detected off the coast of South Carolina on Saturday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Colin. The strongest winds were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Colin, which was over the Atlantic Ocean. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the eastern side of Colin’s circulation. The winds over land were weaker. The heaviest rain was also falling in the bands over the Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical Storm Colin will move through an environment that is unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Although the Sea Surface Temperatures off the coast of North Carolina are near 27˚C, the center of Colin’s circulation is likely to move along the coast. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will cause moderate vertical wind shear. Proximity to land and vertical wind shear are likely to prevent Tropical Storm Colin from strengthening during the next 36 hours.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Storm Colin toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Colin will move along the coast of North Carolina. Colin could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of North Carolina.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Bonnie was moving along the border between Nicaragua and Costa Rica. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located at latitude 11.2°N and longitude 85.8°W which put it about 65 miles (105 km) southeast of Managua, Nicaragua. Bonnie was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb. Tropical Storm Bonnie will move over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean in a few hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the Caribbean coast from Limon, Costa Rica to Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the Pacific coast from Cabo Blanco, Costa Rica to the border between Nicaragua and Honduras.

Claudette Strengthens Back to a Tropical Storm

Former Tropical Depression Claudette strengthened back to a tropical storm on Monday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Claudette was located at latitude 36.4°N and longitude 76.3°W which put it about 15 miles (25 km) west of Duck, North Carolina. Claudette was moving toward the east-northeast at 28 m.p.h. (45 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

When the center of former Tropical Depression Claudette moved close to the coast of North Carolina, the sustained wind speed in bands in the part of the circulation over the Atlantic Ocean increased to tropical force. The National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Claudette on Monday morning. The distribution of thunderstorms and the wind field around Tropical Storm Claudette was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in bands on the eastern side of Claudette. Bands in the western side of the circulation consisted mainly of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) on the eastern side of Claudette.

Tropical Storm Claudette will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Claudette will move over an area where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C. An upper level trough centered near the Great Lakes will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Claudette. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Claudette could get a little stronger on Monday. Claudette will move over cooler water when it moves north of the Gulf Stream and it will make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough over the Great Lakes will steer Tropical Storm Claudette quickly toward the northeast. On its anticipated track Claudette will move rapidly away from the East Coast of the U.S. Tropical Storm Claudette could pass south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday.

Tropical Depression Claudette Prompts Warning for North Carolina

Even though the center of circulation was well inland over the southeastern U.S. on Sunday morning, Tropical Depression Claudette prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of North Carolina. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Claudette was located at latitude 33.7°N and longitude 84.8°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) west of Atlanta, Georgia. Claudette was moving toward the east-northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the coast of North Carolina from Little River Inlet to Duck including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from South Santee River, South Carolina to Little River Inlet, North Carolina.

Although the center of Tropical Depression Claudette had been over land for a day, the circulation was still well organized. A well defined center of lower pressure was evident at the surface. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were visible on satellite and radar images. The strongest winds were occurring in the bands that were over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The winds were weaker over land. Rain was falling over the region from northern Florida to North Carolina. The heaviest rain was falling in a band over northern Florida and a Tornado Watch was in effect for part of that region.

Tropical Depression Claudette will move into an environment more favorable for intensification on Sunday. The center of Claudette will still be over land, but it will move east of the Appalachian Mountains. It will move between an upper level trough over the North Central U.S. and an upper level ridge southeast of the U.S. The trough and the ridge will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical depression. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but they will also generate upper level divergence to the northeast of Tropical Depression Claudette. The upper level divergence could allow the surface pressure to decrease while Claudette is still over land. A decrease in pressure could generate enough additional force to increase the wind speeds along the coast of North Carolina and South Carolina, when the center Tropical Depression Claudette gets closer to the coast.

Tropical Depression Claudette will move north of a surface high pressure system centered southeast of the U.S. on Sunday. The high will steer Claudette toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Depression Claudette will move across Georgia and South Carolina on Sunday. Claudette will continue to drop heavy rain over parts of the southeastern U.S. Flash Flood Watches were in effect for northern Florida, northern Georgia, South Carolina, and eastern North Carolina. There could also be enough wind shear to generate tornadoes in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Depression Claudette.

Hurricane Isaias Brings Wind and Rain to MidAtlantic States

Hurricane Isaias brought wind and rain to the MidAtlantic states of the U.S. on Tuesday.  Isaias weakened to a tropical storm on Tuesday morning as it moved over eastern Virginia.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located at latitude 37.7°N and longitude 76.8°W which put it about 15 miles (25 km) south-southeast of Tappahannock, Virginia.  Isaias was moving toward the north-northeast at 33 m.p.h. (54 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Surf City, North Carolina to Eastport, Maine including Albemarle Sound, Pamlico, Sound, Long Island, Long Island Sound, Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket.

The center of Hurricane Isaias officially made landfall on the coast at Ocean Isle Beach, North Carolina.  The maximum sustained wind speed at the time of landfall was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  A weather station at Oak Island, North Carolina measured a sustained wind speed of 76 m.p.h. and a wind gust to 87 m.p.h. (140 km/h).

The center of Isaias moved rapidly toward the north-northeast during the overnight hours and it passed between Richmond and Norfolk, Virginia.  The strongest winds were occurring along the coast and over the Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday morning.  A weather station at Duck, North Carolina measured a sustained wind speed of 48 m.p.h. (78 km/h) and a wind gust of 63 m.p.h. (102 km/h).  A weather station at Poquoson, Virginia measured a sustained wind speed of 39 m.p.h. (63 km/h) and a wind gust to 56 m.p.h. (91 km/h).  A weather station on Third Island which is near the Mouth of Chesapeake Bay recently measured a sustained wind speed of 63 m.p.h. (101 km/h) and a wind gust of 77 m.p.h. (124 km/h).

Tropical Storm Isaias will move rapidly toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours.  The center of Isaias will pass west of New York City later today.  Tropical Storm Isaias will gradually weaken, but it could bring tropical storm force winds to the northeastern U.S.  Wind shear in the lower levels of Tropical Storm Isaias’ circulation is contributing to the spin up of tornadoes.  Isaias will drop locally heavy rain and flash floods could occur.

Tropical Storm Isaias will take a track similar to the tracks taken by Hurricane Irene in 2011 and Hurricane Isabel in 2003.  Hurricane Irene was similar in strength and a little bit larger than Isaias when it hit North Carolina in 2011.  Irene was already weakening when it hit the coast while Isaias was strengthening at landfall.  According to the Tropical Cyclone Report on the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) website, Hurricane Irene caused 15.8 billions dollars of damage in the U.S.

Hurricane Isabel was larger and stronger than Isaias was when it made landfall in North Carolina.  Isabel was also weakening at the time of landfall.  According to the Tropical Cyclone Report on NHC’s website for Hurricane Isabel, it caused 5.4 billion dollars of damage in the U.S.

 

Tropical Storm Arthur Brings Wind and Rain to Eastern North Carolina

Tropical Storm Arthur brought wind and rain to eastern North Carolina on Monday.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was located at latitude 34.5°N and longitude 75.9°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) south-southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Arthur was moving toward the north-northeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Surf City to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

Tropical Storm Arthur began to move more quickly toward the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Monday morning.  The distribution of thunderstorms and winds around Arthur was asymmetric.  The strong thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of the circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in those bands.  Bands in the western half of Tropical Storm Arthur consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the eastern half of Arthur.  The winds in the western half of Arthur were mostly less than tropical storm force.

The asymmetric structure of Tropical Storm Arthur meant that the strongest winds were occurring east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  A buoy at Diamond Shoals was reporting a sustained wind speed of 33 m.p.h. (54 km/h) and wind gusts to 47 m.p.h. (76 km/h).  The wind speeds along the coast of North Carolina were much weaker.  Tropical Storm Arthur was dropping moderate rain over eastern North Carolina.   Wind blowing water toward the coast was causing the water level to rise in some locations.  Waves were causing erosion on some beaches.

A large upper level trough will approach Tropical Storm Arthur from the west.  The trough will turn Arthur more toward the east later on Monday.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Arthur should move away from North Carolina on Monday afternoon.  Weather conditions should improve gradually when Arthur moves farther form the coast.

Tropical Storm Arthur Prompts Warning for North Carolina

Tropical Storm Arthur prompted the National Hurricane Center to issue a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the coast of North Carolina.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Surf City to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was located at latitude 30.5°N and longitude 77.4°W which put it about 345 miles (560 km) south-southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Arthur was moving toward the north-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (96 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Arthur exhibited more organization on Sunday morning.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were wrapping around the eastern and northern parts of the circulation.  Bands on the western side of Arthur still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Arthur.  The winds on the western side of Arthur were mostly below tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Arthur will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Arthur will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 25°C.  It will move under an upper level ridge centered off the southeast coast of the U.S.  The winds in the upper ridge are relatively weak and there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Arthur is likely to get stronger during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Arthur will move around the western end of a high pressure system during the next 24 hours.  The ridge will steer Arthur toward the north-northeast during the next day or so.  A large upper level trough over the central U.S. will approach Tropical Storm Arthur on Monday.  The trough will steer Arthur more toward the east.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Arthur will approach the coast of North Carolina on Monday.  Arthur will bring gusty winds to the coast.  Wind blowing toward the shore will cause the water level to rise.  Waves will cause beach erosion.

Tropical Depression One Strengthens Into Tropical Storm Arthur

Tropical Depression One strengthened into Tropical Storm Arthur on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was located at latitude 29.4°N and longitude 77.7°W which put it about 420 miles (675 km) south-southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Arthur was moving toward the north-northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the portion of the coast from Surf City to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

Surface observations and data from aircraft reconnaissance indicated that Tropical Depression One strengthened on Saturday night and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Arthur.  Thunderstorms continued to develop near the center of circulation and storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the east of the depression.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing.  The strongest bands were in the eastern half of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Arthur.  Most of the winds in the western side of the circulation were less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Arthur will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Arthur will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 25°C.  An upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and an upper level ridge east of Florida will interact to produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Arthur will strengthen on Sunday.

The upper level trough and upper level ridge will steer Tropical Storm Arthur toward the north-northeast during the next 36 to 48 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Arthur will approach the coast of North Carolina on Monday.  It will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of the coast.  Wind blowing water toward the coast will cause the water level to rise and there will be erosion of the beaches.

Tropical Depression One Forms East of Florida

Tropical Depression One formed east of Florida on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression One was located at latitude 28.4°N and longitude 78.6°W which put it about 125 miles (200 km) east of Melbourne, Florida.  The depression was moving toward the north-northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Surf City to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

Surface observations and data from aircraft reconnaissance indicated that a distinct low pressure system formed east of Florida on Saturday and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression One.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation.  Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the east of the depression.  The strongest winds were occurring in the inner part of the circulation, which was consistent with the typical structure of a tropical cyclone.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing.  The strongest bands were in the eastern half of the circulation.

Tropical Depression One will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 25°C.  An upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and an upper level ridge east of Florida will interact to produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Depression One will strengthen into a tropical storm.

The upper level trough and upper level ridge will steer Tropical Depression One toward the north-northeast during the next 36 to 48 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression One will approach the coast of North Carolina on Monday.  It will be a tropical storm by that time.  It will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of the coast.  Wind blowing water toward the coast will cause the water level to rise and there will be erosion of the beaches.