Tropical Depression One formed east of Florida on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression One was located at latitude 28.4°N and longitude 78.6°W which put it about 125 miles (200 km) east of Melbourne, Florida. The depression was moving toward the north-northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.
A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Surf City to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.
Surface observations and data from aircraft reconnaissance indicated that a distinct low pressure system formed east of Florida on Saturday and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression One. More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation. Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the east of the depression. The strongest winds were occurring in the inner part of the circulation, which was consistent with the typical structure of a tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing. The strongest bands were in the eastern half of the circulation.
Tropical Depression One will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days. The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 25°C. An upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and an upper level ridge east of Florida will interact to produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Depression One will strengthen into a tropical storm.
The upper level trough and upper level ridge will steer Tropical Depression One toward the north-northeast during the next 36 to 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression One will approach the coast of North Carolina on Monday. It will be a tropical storm by that time. It will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of the coast. Wind blowing water toward the coast will cause the water level to rise and there will be erosion of the beaches.