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Tropical Storm Isaias Speeds Past New York City

Tropical Storm Isaias sped past New York City on Tuesday afternoon.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located at latitude 40.9°N and longitude 75.1°W which put it about 65 miles (105 km) west of New York, New York.  Isaias was moving toward the north-northeast at 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chincoteague, Virginia to Eastport, Maine including Long Island, Long Island Sound, Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket.

Tropical Storm Isaias sped up the East Coast of the U.S. on Tuesday and the center of circulation was west of New York City by Tuesday afternoon.  Isaias was still generating an area of winds to tropical storm force over the Atlantic Ocean.  A NOAA buoy at the entrance to New York Harbor measured a sustained wind speed of 57 m.p.h. (83 km/h) and a wind gust of 71 m.p.h. (115 km/h).  JFK airport recently reported a wind gust to 70 m.p.h. (113 km/h).

The eastern side of former Hurricane Isaias produced strong wind gusts along the East Coast of the U.S. from North Carolina to Long Island.  A station at Federal Point, North Carolina reported a gust of 99 m.p.h.  (160 km/h).  Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina had a wind gust to 86 m.p.h. (139 km/h).  Stevensville, Maryland measured a gust of 79 m.p.h. (127 km/h).  South Norfolk, Virginia reported a wind gust to 76 m.p.h. (122 km/h) and Nags Head, North Carolina had a gust of 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  Ocean City, Maryland measured a gust of 69 m.p.h. (111 km/h).

The strong wind gusts caused widespread power outages.  Shear in the lower levels of the atmosphere also contributed to the spinup of a number of tornadoes.  Tropical Storm isaias dropped heavy rain over parts of the northeastern U.S.  Isaias will continue to speed north-northeastward into Canada during the next 12 hours.  Tropical Storm Isaias will gradually weaken and wind speeds should decrease.  Isaias will continue to drop locally heavy rain over eastern New York, western Massachusetts and Vermont for several more hours.  The potential for flash floods in those areas still exists.

Hurricane Isaias Brings Wind and Rain to MidAtlantic States

Hurricane Isaias brought wind and rain to the MidAtlantic states of the U.S. on Tuesday.  Isaias weakened to a tropical storm on Tuesday morning as it moved over eastern Virginia.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located at latitude 37.7°N and longitude 76.8°W which put it about 15 miles (25 km) south-southeast of Tappahannock, Virginia.  Isaias was moving toward the north-northeast at 33 m.p.h. (54 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Surf City, North Carolina to Eastport, Maine including Albemarle Sound, Pamlico, Sound, Long Island, Long Island Sound, Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket.

The center of Hurricane Isaias officially made landfall on the coast at Ocean Isle Beach, North Carolina.  The maximum sustained wind speed at the time of landfall was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  A weather station at Oak Island, North Carolina measured a sustained wind speed of 76 m.p.h. and a wind gust to 87 m.p.h. (140 km/h).

The center of Isaias moved rapidly toward the north-northeast during the overnight hours and it passed between Richmond and Norfolk, Virginia.  The strongest winds were occurring along the coast and over the Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday morning.  A weather station at Duck, North Carolina measured a sustained wind speed of 48 m.p.h. (78 km/h) and a wind gust of 63 m.p.h. (102 km/h).  A weather station at Poquoson, Virginia measured a sustained wind speed of 39 m.p.h. (63 km/h) and a wind gust to 56 m.p.h. (91 km/h).  A weather station on Third Island which is near the Mouth of Chesapeake Bay recently measured a sustained wind speed of 63 m.p.h. (101 km/h) and a wind gust of 77 m.p.h. (124 km/h).

Tropical Storm Isaias will move rapidly toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours.  The center of Isaias will pass west of New York City later today.  Tropical Storm Isaias will gradually weaken, but it could bring tropical storm force winds to the northeastern U.S.  Wind shear in the lower levels of Tropical Storm Isaias’ circulation is contributing to the spin up of tornadoes.  Isaias will drop locally heavy rain and flash floods could occur.

Tropical Storm Isaias will take a track similar to the tracks taken by Hurricane Irene in 2011 and Hurricane Isabel in 2003.  Hurricane Irene was similar in strength and a little bit larger than Isaias when it hit North Carolina in 2011.  Irene was already weakening when it hit the coast while Isaias was strengthening at landfall.  According to the Tropical Cyclone Report on the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) website, Hurricane Irene caused 15.8 billions dollars of damage in the U.S.

Hurricane Isabel was larger and stronger than Isaias was when it made landfall in North Carolina.  Isabel was also weakening at the time of landfall.  According to the Tropical Cyclone Report on NHC’s website for Hurricane Isabel, it caused 5.4 billion dollars of damage in the U.S.

 

Isaias Strengthens Back into a Hurricane

Isaias strengthened back into a hurricane on Monday evening.  At 9:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Isaias was located at latitude 33.1°N and longitude 78.8°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) south-southeast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.  Isaias was moving toward the north-northeast at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from South Santee River, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portion of the coast from Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina and from Surf City, North Carolina to Stonington, Maine including Albemarle Sound, Pamlico Sound, Long Island, Long Island Sound, Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Stonington, to Eastport, Maine.

The circulation around Hurricane Isaias became much better organized on Monday afternoon.  A reconnaissance aircraft investigating Isaias found winds to hurricane force.  An elliptical eye developed at the center of Hurricane Isaias.  A broken ring of thunderstorms surrounded the elliptical eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Isaias.  The strongest rainbands were in the northern half of the circulation.  Bands in the southern half of Hurricane Isaias consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Isaias was 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 15.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.0.  Hurricane Isaias was capable of causing regional minor damage.

The center of Hurricane Isaias will make landfall between Myrtle Beach, South Carolina and Southport, North Carolina during the next few hours.  Isaias will bring hurricane force winds to the portion of the coast from Myrtle Beach, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina.  It will generate a storm surge of 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) along the coast.  Hurricane Isaias will drop heavy rain over extreme eastern South Carolina, eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia.  Heavy rain could cause flooding in some locations.

The center of Hurricane Isaias will pass just west of Norfolk, Virginia on Tuesday morning.  isaias will weaken when it passes over land, but it will still bring gusty winds over eastern Virginia.  Isaias will pass near New York City on Tuesday evening and it will bring gusty winds to New England on Tuesday night.  Isaias could cause widespread power outages along the East Coast of the U.S.  It will also drop heavy rain east of the Appalachians and flash floods could occur in that region.

Tropical Storm Isaias Turns Toward the Carolinas

Tropical Storm Isaias turned toward the Carolinas on Monday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located at latitude 30.7°N and longitude 80.1°W which put it about 220 miles (350 km) south-southwest of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.  Isaias was moving toward the north at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from South Santee River, South Carolina to Surt City, North Carolina.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to South Santee River, South Carolina and from Surf City North Carolina to Watch Hill, Rhode Island including Albemarle Sound, Pamlico Sound, Long Island and Long Island Sound.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Watch Hill, Rhode Island to Stonington, Maine including Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket.

Tropical Storm Isaias seemed to begin another cycle where the thunderstorm activity pulsed down during the overnight hours.  However, visible satellite and radar images seemed to indicate that thunderstorms were starting redevelop on Monday morning.  A band of thunderstorms appeared to be wrapping around the northern side of the circulation.  Thunderstorms were also increasing in bands in the northern and eastern parts of Isaias.  Bands in the southern and western sides of Isaias consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Isaias could be pulling in some drier air around the southern and western parts of the storm.  That is a fairly typical occurrence with tropical systems moving up the East Coast of the U.S.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) in the northern and eastern quadrants of Isaias.  The winds in the southern and western parts of the circulation were mostly at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Isaias will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Isaias will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level trough over the Central U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Isaias.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification.  The wind shear is expected to decrease slightly later on Monday, which could allow Isaias to strengthen into a hurricane.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Storm Isaias toward the north-northeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Isaias will make landfall near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina on Monday night.  Isaias could be a hurricane when it makes landfall.  Isaias will bring gusty winds and a storm surge of 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) to the coast near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.  The center of Isaias will move across eastern North Carolina and it could be near Norfolk, Virginia on Tuesday morning.  Tropical Storm Isaias could pass near New York City later on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Isaias will bring gusty winds to the East Coast of the U.S. from South Carolina to Maine.  Isaias will also drop locally heavy rain from eastern South Carolina to New England.  The National Weather Service has indicated that a Moderate Risk of flash floods exists for the region from eastern South Carolina to eastern Pennsylvania.

Powerful Hurricane Michael Nearing North Florida

Powerful hurricane Michael was nearing north Florida on Wednesday morning.  Michael intensified rapidly to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale during the overnight hours.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Michael was located at latitude 29.0°N and longitude 86.3°W which put it about 90 miles south-southwest of Panama City, Florida.  Michael was moving toward the north at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (275 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 933 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Alabama-Florida border to Suwanee River, Florida.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from the Alabama-Florida border to the Alabama-Mississippi border and from Suwanee River to Chassahowitzka, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Atlantic Coast from Fernandina Beach, Florida to Surf City, North Carolina.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from the Alabama-Mississippi border to the Mouth of the Pearl River and from Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect from Surf City to Duck, North Carolina including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.

Hurricane Michael intensified rapidly during the past 12 hours.  An eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  The strongest winds are occurring in that ring of storms.  Storms near the core of Hurricane Michael are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease rapidly to 933 mb.

Winds to hurricane force extend out about 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) from the center of Hurricane Michael.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 185 miles (290 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Michael is 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 16.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 46.0.  Hurricane Michael is capable of causing regional significant damage.

Hurricane Michael is stronger than any other hurricane to hit north Florida in the historical record.  Michael is similar in intensity to what Hurricane Charley was when Charley hit southwest Florida in 2004.  Hurricane Michael is bigger than Charley was in 2004.

An upper level trough over the Central U.S. and a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean are combining to steer Hurricane Michael toward the north.  The trough will turn Michael toward the northeast when it reaches the coast.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Michael will make landfall near Panama City and Port St. Joe, Florida in about six hours.

Hurricane Michael will bring destructive winds to the coast of north Florida.  The strongest winds will be near the center and east of the center.  Those winds will push water toward the coast and a storm surge of 10 to 15 feet (3 to 5 meters) will occur east of where the center of Michael makes landfall.  The coast of the northeast Gulf of Mexico is very vulnerable to storm surges and significant damage will occur.

The center of Hurricane Michael will move between Dothan, Alabama and Tallahassee, Florida.  It will pass near Albany, Georgia and then move south of Macon, Georgia.  The center of Michael could move near Columbia, South Carolina and then it could exit the East Coast of the U.S. near Norfolk, Virginia.

Michael will bring hurricane force winds to northeast Florida, extreme southeast Alabama and southern Georgia.  There will be widespread power outages.  Winds to tropical storm force will occur in South Carolina and North Carolina.  Hurricane Michael will drop locally heavy rain when it moves inland.  The wind and rain will disrupt efforts to recover from the effects of Hurricane Florence in South Carolina and North Carolina.