Tag Archives: Sarasota

Hurricane Milton Nears West Coast of Florida

The center of Hurricane Milton neared the west coast of Florida on Wednesday afternoon.  At 5:00 P.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Milton was located at latitude 26.9°N and longitude 83.4°W which put the center about 60 miles (95 km) west-southwest of Sarasota, Florida.  Milton was moving toward the northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Hurricane Warning includes Tampa Bay.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Martin/Palm Beach County Line, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Bonita Beach, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the St. Lucie/Martin County Line, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to Edisto Beach, South Carolina.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the extreme Northwestern Bahamas including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos and Bimini.

Hurricane Milton was weakening gradually on Wednesday afternoon, but Milton was still a major hurricane.  An upper level trough over the southern Mississippi River Valley was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Milton’s circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The upper level winds were also inhibiting the upper level divergence to the west of Hurricane Milton.  The wind shear was causing Hurricane Milton to weaken gradually.

A circular eye was present at the center of Hurricane Milton.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and northern parts of Hurricane Milton.  Bands in the southern and western parts of Milton’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Milton generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the hurricane.

Even though Hurricane Milton is weakening, the circulation around Milton is getting larger.  Winds to hurricane force extend out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Milton’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of Hurricane Milton.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Milton is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 16.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 38.9.  Hurricane Milton is similar in intensity to Hurricane Irma when Irma hit southwest Florida in 2017.  Milton is not as big as Irma was.

Hurricane Milton will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Milton will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However, the upper level trough over the southern Mississippi River Valley will continue to cause moderate to strong vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will cause Hurricane Milton to continue to weaken gradually during the next few hours.

The upper level trough over the southern Mississippi River Valley will steer Hurricane Milton toward the northeast east during the next 12 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Milton will make landfall in a few hours on the west coast of Florida near or just to the south of Tampa.

Even though Hurricane Milton weakened today, Milton is still expected to be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Florida.   Milton will bring strong gusty winds and heavy rain to the west coast of Florida.   Milton will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Florida.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for many of the counties in Central Florida.  Those Hurricane Warnings include Orlando.

Milton will be capable of causing major damage.  Heavy rains will cause floods in some locations. Widespread electricity outages are likely.

Flood Watches are in effect for much of the Florida Peninsula.

Milton will also produce a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) along the west coast of Florida.  The highest storm surge is likely to occur along the portion of the coast just to the south of Tampa.  A storm surge of 8 to 12 feet (2,4 to 3.7 meters) could occur in Tampa Bay.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the Yankeetown, Florida.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.  A Storm Surge Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

Thunderstorms in bands in the eastern periphery of Hurricane Milton have already produced tornadoes over South Florida.  A Tornado Watch is in effect for much of the Florida Peninsula.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Leslie intensified east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Leslie was located at latitude 22.2°N and longitude 49.0°W which put the center about 955 miles (1535 km) east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Leslie was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Center of Tropical Storm Debby Near Savannah

The center of Tropical Storm Debby was near Savannah, Georgia on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located at latitude 31.9°N and longitude 81.0°W which put the center about 15 miles (25 km) south of Savannah, Georgia.  Debby was moving toward the east-northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound Georgia to Surf City, North Carolina.  The Tropical Storm Warning included Charleston, South Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Surf City to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina.

Tropical Storm Debby continued to drop heavy rain over parts of South Carolina and eastern Georgia.  The airport at Charleston, South Carolina reported 8.11 inches (206 mm) of rain during the past 24 hours.  Valdosta, Georgia received 2.75 inches (70 mm) of rain.  Sarasota, Florida reported 11.06 inches (281 mm) of rain from Debby.  Gainesville, Florida received 6.80 inches (173 mm) of rain.  Jacksonville, Florida reported 4.70 inches (119 mm) of rain.  It is likely that higher rainfall totals occurred in some places where bands moved persistently over the same locations.

Southerly winds blowing around the eastern side of Tropical Storm Debby were pushing water toward the coast of South Carolina.  There were numerous reports of water in streets in Charleston, South Carolina.

Tropical Storm Debby weakened during the day it spent moving slowly across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia.  Drier air wrapped around the western and southern sides of Debby’s circulation.  Bands in the southwestern and southeastern quadrants of Tropical Storm Debby consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Showers and thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the outer parts of the northeastern and northwestern quadrants of Tropical Storm Debby.  There were also showers and lower clouds near the center of Debby.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Debby was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 205 miles (330 km) in the eastern side of Debby.  Those winds were occurring in bands in the outer parts of Debby’s circulation.  The winds in the parts of Debby’s circulation that were over land were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Debby will move into an environment favorable for intensification.  Debby will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the southeastern U.S.  The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The drier air in the southern part of Debby’s circulation will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Debby is likely to intensify slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Debby will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours.  Debby is likely to move slowly toward the east-northeast during the rest of Tuesday.  A high pressure system located east of Tropical Storm Debby is forecast to strengthen on Wednesday.  That high pressure system will steer Debby slowly toward the north on Wednesday.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Debby could approach the coast of South Carolina on Wednesday night.

Tropical Storm Debby will continue to drop heavy rain on parts of South Carolina, North Carolina and eastern Georgia.  Since Debby will move slowly, persistent heavy rain is likely to cause floods.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of South Carolina, North Carolina and eastern Georgia.

Southerly winds blowing around the eastern side of Tropical Storm Debby will continue to push water toward the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina.  Debby could cause a storm surge of up to 6 feet (1.8 meters).

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to South Santee River, South Carolina.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina.

Low Pressure System To Drop Heavy Rain on Central, South Florida

A low pressure system designated as Invest 90L will drop heavy rain over parts of Central and South Florida during the next 24 hours. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Invest 90L was located at latitude 26.9°N and longitude 93.9°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) west-southwest of Sarasota, Florida. The low pressure system was moving toward the east-northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A low pressure system developed over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. The low pressure system was designated as Invest 90L. It was approaching the west coast of Florida near Sarasota on Tuesday afternoon. The low pressure system was being steered toward the east-northeast. It will move across the Florida Peninsula during Tuesday night. The low pressure system will drop heavy rain over parts of Central and South Florida.

A Flood Watch was in effect for South Florida.

A well defined low level circulation was visible on satellite images. Thunderstorms were occurring in the eastern and northern parts of the low pressure system. Thunderstorms were also occurring in a band just east of the center of circulation. Bands north and west of the center of the low pressure system consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The low pressure system will move through an environment unfavorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C during the next few hours. Then it will move over the Florida Peninsula. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce westerly winds that will blow across the top of the low pressure system. Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear. The combination of movement over land and strong vertical wind shear is likely to prevent the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

The low pressure system could move into a more favorable environment when it moves over the western Atlantic Ocean on Friday. The upper level trough could move northeast of the low pressure system which would cause the vertical wind shear to decrease. The U.S. National Hurricane Center is indicating that probability is 20% that the low pressure system develops into a tropical cyclone after it moves over the western Atlantic Ocean northeast of Florida.

The upper level trough will steer the low pressure system toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the low pressure system will reach the west coast of Florida near Sarasota in a few hours. The center of the low pressure system is likely to pass south of Orlando and Daytona Beach. It will drop heavy rain over parts of Central and South Florida. Some thunderstorms could approach severe criteria.

Hurricane Ian Moves Closer to Southwest Florida

Hurricane Ian moved closer to Southwest Florida on Tuesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Ian was located at latitude 24.9°N and longitude 82.9°W which put it about 110 miles (175 km) southwest of Naples, Florida. Ian was moving toward the north-northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to Anclote River, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for all of the Florida Keys. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Chokoloskee, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropcial Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Bimini and Grand Bahama Island.

Hurricane Ian appeared to go through a quick eyewall replacement cycle on Tuesday evening. The original eye and eyewall quickly dissipated and a new larger eye was evident on satellite and radar images. The new eye had a diameter of 35 miles (55 km). The new eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Ian’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the hurricane.

The quick eyewall replacement cycle temporarily interrupted the intensification of Hurricane Ian, but it also caused the circulation around Ian to get bigger. Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Ian’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.2. Hurricane Ian was capable of causing regional major damage.

Ian will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ian’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear is not likely to be strong enough during the next 12 hours to prevent intensification of Hurricane Ian. Ian could strengthen to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Wednesday morning. The upper level winds are likely to get stronger on Wednesday afternoon which would cause the wind shear to increase. Hurricane Ian is likely to start to weaken slowly when the vertical wind shear increases.

The upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Ian toward the north-northeast on Wednesday. On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Ian could make landfall on the coast of Southwest Florida between Ft. Myers and Sarasota on Wednesday afternoon. Ian could move slowly inland over Central Florida on Thursday. Hurricane Ian is likely to bring a prolonged period of strong gusty winds to Southwest Florida and to Central Florida. Ian will be capable of causing major damage. A prolonged period of strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages. Hurricane Ian will move slowly inland and 10 to 20 inches of rain could fall in some locations. Extensive fresh water flooding could occur in Central Florida. A storm surge of 8 to 12 feet (2.4 to 3.5 meters) could occur along the coast of Southwest Florida.

The center of Hurricane Ian could make landfall near the location where Hurricane Charley made landfall in 2004. Ian will not be as strong as Charley was in 2004, but Ian will be a lot bigger than Charley. Hurricane Ian could be stronger than Hurricane Irma was in 2017 when Irma hit Southwest Florida, but Ian will not be as big as Irma was.