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Low Pressure System Causes Floods in South Florida

A low pressure system designated as Invest 90L caused floods in parts of South Florida on Wednesday. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Invest 90L was located at latitude 28.6°N and longitude 81.0°W which put it about 10 miles (15 km) northwest of Titusville, Florida. The low pressure system was moving toward the northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

Even though the center of the low pressure system moved across Central Florida, it produced a band of thunderstorms well to the south of the center of circulation. The band of thunderstorms dropped persistent rain over parts of southwestern and southeastern Florida. Naples reported 3.94 inches (100.1 mm) of rain on Tuesday. There were reports of street flooding in Naples on Wednesday. Ft. Lauderdale reported 6.77 inches (172.0 mm) of rain on Wednesday. Miami reported 2,25 inches (57.2 mm) of rain on Wednesday. West Palm Beach reported 2.38 inches (60.4 mm) of rain on Wednesday. There were reports of urban flooding in Miami, Miami Beach and Hallandale in southeastern Florida.

Flood Warnings were in effect for Collier and Hendry Counties in southwestern Florida. Flood Warnings were also in effect for Broward and Miami-Dade Counties in southeastern Florida. A Flood Watch was in effect for South Florida.

The low pressure system will move through an environment marginally favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C during the next few hours. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce westerly winds that will blow across the top of the low pressure system. Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit development of a tropical cyclone, but the wind shear could start to decrease on Thursday. The U.S. National Hurricane Center is indicating that probability is 20% that the low pressure system develops into a tropical cyclone after it moves over the western Atlantic Ocean off the coast of the southeast U.S.

The upper level trough will steer the low pressure system toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the low pressure system will move over the western Atlantic Ocean on Thursday. A new center of circulation could develop along the line of thunderstorms in the southern part of the current circulation.

Low Pressure System Develops over Gulf of Mexico

A weak low pressure system developed over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The system was designated as Invest 91L by the National Hurricane Center. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Invest 91L was located at latitude 26.4°N and longitude 85.9°W which put it about 275 miles (445 km) west of Naples, Florida. The low pressure system was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A weak low pressure system developed over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and the system was designated as Invest 91L. The circulation around Invest 91L was not well organized. There was a broad counterclockwise rotation around the center of the low pressure system. At least one smaller center of rotation, that might have formed in a cluster of thunderstorms that dissipated on Tuesday night, was visible in the eastern side of the broader rotation. There were bands of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern and northern sides of the low pressure system. Bands in the western and southern parts of the system consisted primarily of lower clouds.

Invest 91L will be in an environment only marginally favorable for development of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. The surface low pressure system will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will be under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow across the top of Invest 91L. Those winds will cause wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit the development of the surface low pressure system. There is also drier air over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The drier air will inhibit the formation of thunderstorms in the northern and western parts of Invest 91L. The National Hurricane Center is indicating that the probability is 20% that Invest 91L develops into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. A reconnaissance plane is tentatively scheduled to investigate the system on Thursday afternoon, if necessary.

Invest 91L will continued to be under the eastern side of the upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next 24 hours. The steering winds are weak under the upper level trough. So, Invest 91L could move with the upper level trough. The upper level trough is forecast to move slowly toward the east. Invest 91L could move slowly toward the southeast. If Invest 91L develops into a tropical cyclone with taller thunderstorms, then the winds in the middle troposphere could steer it more toward the north. Bands in the eastern side of the low pressure system are likely to bring locally heavy rain to parts of central and south Florida.

Hurricane Ian Pounds Southwest Florida

Hurricane Ian was pounding southwest Florida on Wednesday afternoon. At 3:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Ian was located at latitude 26.7°N and longitude 82.2°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) west-southwest of Punta Gorda, Florida. Ian was moving toward the north-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 940 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to Anclote River, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa Bay. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Melbourne and Daytona Beach. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida to the South Santee River, South Carolina. The Hurricane Watch included Savannah, Georgia and Charleston, South Carolina. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for all of the Florida Keys. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Chokoloskee, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropcial Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Bimini and Grand Bahama Island.

The National Hurricane Center stated that the center of Hurricane Ian officially made landfall on Cayo Costa, west-northwest of Ft. Myers at 3:10 p.m. EDT on Wednesday. Ian was a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale at the time of landfall.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 31.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 49.7. Hurricane Ian was stronger and much bigger than Hurricane Charley was when Charley made landfall in Southwest Florida in 2004. Ian was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Laura, when Laura hit Lake Charles, Louisiana in 2020. Hurricane Ian was also similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Mexico Beach, Florida in 2018.

Hurricane Ian was producing strong gusty winds, locally heavy rain and a storm surge along the coast of Southwest Florida. A weather station maintained by the River, Estuary and Coastal Network at Redfish Pass, Florida reported a sustained wind speed of 94 m.p.h. (151 km/h) and a wind gust of 126 m.p.h. (203 km/h). A weather station at the Punta Gorda airport reported a wind gust of 124 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The Cape Coral Fire Department reported a wind gust of 110 m.p.h. (177 km/h). A station in Naples, Florida reported a storm surge of 9.05 feet (2.76 meters) and the water level was still rising. A station in Ft. Myers, Florida reported a storm surge of 5.76 feet (1.75 meters) and the water level was still rising.

An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Ian toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Ian will move inland over Southwest Florida. Ian will move across Central Florida on Thursday. Hurricane Ian is likely to bring a prolonged period of strong gusty winds to Southwest Florida and to Central Florida. Ian will be capable of causing severe damage. A prolonged period of strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages. Hurricane Ian will move slowly inland and 10 to 20 inches of rain could fall in some locations. Fresh water flooding could occur in Central Florida. A storm surge of up to 12 to 16 feet (3.5 to 5 meters) could occur along the coast of Southwest Florida.

The center of Hurricane Ian could be near the east coast of Florida on Thursday afternoon. Hurricane Ian could bring strong, gusty winds to the coast of the Southeastern U.S. on Thursday night and Friday. The wind will blow water toward the coast and water levels will rise along the coast.

Hurricane Ian Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 4

Hurricane Ian rapidly intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it approached the coast of Southwest Florida early on Wednesday. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Ian was located at latitude 26.0°N and longitude 82.7°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) southwest of Punta Gorda, Florida. Ian was moving toward the north-northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to Anclote River, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for all of the Florida Keys. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Chokoloskee, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropcial Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Bimini and Grand Bahama Island.

Hurricane Ian completed a quick eyewall replacement cycle during Tuesday night. The original eye and eyewall quickly dissipated and a new larger eye was evident on satellite and radar images. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) is now present at the center of Ian’s circulation. The new eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of Hurricane Ian’s circulation. Storms near the core are generating strong upper level divergence that is pumping mass away to the north and east of the hurricane.

The quick eyewall replacement cycle caused the circulation around Ian to get bigger. Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Ian’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 33.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 49.6. Hurricane Ian was capable of causing regional severe damage.

Hurricane Ian is now stronger than Hurricane Charley was when Charley made landfall in Southwest Florida in 2004, and Ian is much bigger than Charley was. Hurricane Ian is very similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Michael, when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.

Ian will move through an environment favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next few hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ian’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear is not likely to be strong enough during the next few hours to cause Hurricane Ian to weaken significantly before it makes landfall in Southwest Florida.

The upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Ian toward the north-northeast on Wednesday. On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Ian could make landfall on the coast of Southwest Florida between Ft. Myers and Sarasota on Wednesday afternoon. Ian could move slowly inland over Central Florida on Thursday. Hurricane Ian is likely to bring a prolonged period of strong gusty winds to Southwest Florida and to Central Florida. Ian will be capable of causing severe damage. A prolonged period of strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages. Hurricane Ian will move slowly inland and 10 to 20 inches of rain could fall in some locations. Fresh water flooding could occur in Central Florida. A storm surge of 12 to 16 feet (3.5 to 5 meters) could occur along the coast of Southwest Florida.

Hurricane Ian is bigger and stronger than Hurricane Charley was when Charley hit Southwest Florida in 2004. Ian is likely to cause much more wind damage than Charley caused. Hurricane Ian is also likely to cause a higher storm surge along the coast than Charley caused.

Hurricane Ian Moves Closer to Southwest Florida

Hurricane Ian moved closer to Southwest Florida on Tuesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Ian was located at latitude 24.9°N and longitude 82.9°W which put it about 110 miles (175 km) southwest of Naples, Florida. Ian was moving toward the north-northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to Anclote River, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for all of the Florida Keys. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Chokoloskee, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropcial Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Bimini and Grand Bahama Island.

Hurricane Ian appeared to go through a quick eyewall replacement cycle on Tuesday evening. The original eye and eyewall quickly dissipated and a new larger eye was evident on satellite and radar images. The new eye had a diameter of 35 miles (55 km). The new eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Ian’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the hurricane.

The quick eyewall replacement cycle temporarily interrupted the intensification of Hurricane Ian, but it also caused the circulation around Ian to get bigger. Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Ian’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.2. Hurricane Ian was capable of causing regional major damage.

Ian will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ian’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear is not likely to be strong enough during the next 12 hours to prevent intensification of Hurricane Ian. Ian could strengthen to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Wednesday morning. The upper level winds are likely to get stronger on Wednesday afternoon which would cause the wind shear to increase. Hurricane Ian is likely to start to weaken slowly when the vertical wind shear increases.

The upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Ian toward the north-northeast on Wednesday. On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Ian could make landfall on the coast of Southwest Florida between Ft. Myers and Sarasota on Wednesday afternoon. Ian could move slowly inland over Central Florida on Thursday. Hurricane Ian is likely to bring a prolonged period of strong gusty winds to Southwest Florida and to Central Florida. Ian will be capable of causing major damage. A prolonged period of strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages. Hurricane Ian will move slowly inland and 10 to 20 inches of rain could fall in some locations. Extensive fresh water flooding could occur in Central Florida. A storm surge of 8 to 12 feet (2.4 to 3.5 meters) could occur along the coast of Southwest Florida.

The center of Hurricane Ian could make landfall near the location where Hurricane Charley made landfall in 2004. Ian will not be as strong as Charley was in 2004, but Ian will be a lot bigger than Charley. Hurricane Ian could be stronger than Hurricane Irma was in 2017 when Irma hit Southwest Florida, but Ian will not be as big as Irma was.

Elsa Strengthens Back to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Elsa strengthened back to a hurricane on Tuesday evening. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Elsa was located at latitude 26.6°N and longitude 83.1°W which put it about 100 miles (160 km) south-southwest of Tampa, Florida. Elsa was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa, St. Petersburg and Clearwater. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Dry Tortugas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Flamingo to Egmont Key and from the Steinhatchee River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida. That warning included Naples, and Ft. Myers. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the St. Marys River to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to the South Santee River, South Carolina.

Former Tropical Storm Elsa strengthened gradually throughout the day on Tuesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of circulation and an eye appeared to be forming at the center of Elsa. Storms near near the center of circulation generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of more mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease, which caused the wind speed to increase. The distribution of thunderstorms around Hurricane Elsa remained asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Elsa. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Hurricane Elsa.

Hurricane Elsa will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Hurricane Elsa. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear that will inhibit intensification. However, the southwesterly winds may also increase upper level divergence to the northeast of Elsa. Additional upper level divergence could cause the surface pressure to continue to decrease. Hurricane Elsa could intensify a little more on Tuesday night.

Hurricane Elsa will move around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high will steer Elsa toward the north on Tuesday night. Hurricane Elsa will turn toward the northeast on Wednesday when it reaches the westerly winds in the middle latitudes. On its anticipated track the center of Elsa will pass just to the west of Tampa on Tuesday night. Hurricane Elsa could make landfall near Cedar Key on Wednesday. The stronger winds and heavy rain will occur on the eastern side of Hurricane Elsa. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. After the center of Elsa moves north of Tampa, southwesterly winds will push water into Tampa Bay which could cause a storm surge of up to six feet (two meters). Hurricane Elsa could cause a storm surge of 2 to 5 feet (0.6 to 1.6 m) along other parts of the west coast of Florida. A higher storm surge could occur near Cedar Key when the center of Elsa makes landfall. Gusty winds could cause power outages in Florida and southeastern Georgia.

Hurricane Watch Issued for Florida for Tropical Storm Elsa

A Hurricane Watch was issued for a portion of the west coast of Florida because of Tropical Storm Elsa. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 24.1°N and longitude 82.4°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) southwest of Key West, Florida. Elsa was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Egmont Key to Steinhatchee River, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key to the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Ochlockonee River, Florida. That warning included Naples, Ft. Myers, Tampa, St. Petersburg and Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Warnings remained in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana and Artemisa. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the St. Marys River, Georgia to the South Santee River, South Carolina.

The center of Tropical Storm Elsa was southwest of Key West, Florida on Tuesday morning. The National Weather Service office in Key West reported a wind gust of 47 m.p.h. (76 km/h). The distribution of thunderstorms around Elsa continued to be asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Elsa. Bands on the western side of the storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center or Elsa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Elsa. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear that will inhibit intensification. However, the southwesterly winds may also increase upper level divergence to the northeast of Elsa. Additional upper level divergence could cause the surface pressure to decrease on Tuesday. Tropical Storm Elsa could intensify on Tuesday and there is a chance that Elsa could strengthen to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next several days. The high will steer Elsa toward the north on Tuesday. Tropical Storm Elsa will turn toward the northeast on Wednesday when it reaches the westerly winds in the middle latitudes. On its anticipated track the center of Elsa will pass west of the Key West on Tuesday morning. The center of Tropical Storm Elsa could pass west of Tampa on Tuesday night. The stronger winds and heavy rain will occur on the eastern side of Elsa. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Winds pushing water toward the coast could cause a storm surge of up to six feet (two meters) in Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Elsa could cause a storm surge of 2 to 5 feet (0.6 to 1.6 m) in the Florida Keys and along the west coast of Florida. A higher storm surge could occur near where the center of Elsa makes landfall. Gusty winds could cause power outages in the Florida Keys and on the Florida peninsula. Elsa will continue to drop heavy rain over parts of Cuba as rainbands on the southern side of the circulation move across the regions

Tropical Storm Elsa Crosses Cuba

Tropical Storm Elsa moved across Cuba during Monday afternoon and evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 23.5°N and longitude 82.3°W which put it about 80 miles (130 km) south-southwest of Key West, Florida. Elsa was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key to the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Ochlockonee River, Florida. That warning included Naples, Ft. Myers, Tampa, St. Petersburg and Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Warnings remained in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana and Artemisa. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida.

The center of Tropical Storm Elsa moved across western Cuba during Monday afternoon and evening. The center passed just to the east of Havana before it moved over water north of Cuba. Tropical Storm Elsa continued to exhibit an organized circulation on satellite and radar imagery even after it spent half a day over land. A reconnaissance plane found sustained winds of 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) over water north of Cuba. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and northern sides of the center of Elsa. Strong thunderstorms were occurring in bands near south Florida and south of Cuba. Storms near the center of Tropical Storm Elsa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Elsa. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear that will inhibit intensification. However, the southwesterly winds may also increase upper level divergence to the northeast of Elsa. Tropical Storm Elsa could intensify on Tuesday and there is a chance that Elsa could strengthen to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next several days. The high will steer Elsa toward the north-northwest during the next few hours. Elsa will move more toward the north on Tuesday. On its anticipated track the center of Elsa will pass west of the Florida Keys on Tuesday morning. The center of Tropical Storm Elsa could pass west of Tampa on Tuesday night. The stronger winds and heavy rain will occur on the eastern side of Elsa. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Winds pushing water toward the coast could cause a storm surge of up to six feet (two meters) in Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Elsa could cause a storm surge of 2 to 5 feet (0.6 to 1.6 m) in the Florida Keys and along the west coast of Florida. A higher storm surge could occur near where the center of Elsa makes landfall. Gusty winds could cause power outages in the Florida Keys and on the Florida peninsula. Elsa will continue to drop heavy rain over parts of Cuba as rainbands on the southern side of the circulation move across the regions

Tropical Storm Elsa Churns South of Cuba

Tropical Storm Elsa was churning south of Cuba on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 81.2°W which put it about 20 miles (35 km) east-southeast of Cayo Largo, Cuba. Elsa was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key to the Dry Tortugas and for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Suwannee River, Florida. The Tropical Storm Warnings included Naples, Ft. Myers, Tampa, St. Petersburg and Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Mayabeque, Havana, Artmemisa. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key to Ocean Reef including Florida Bay and for the portion of the coast from Suwannee River, Florida to Indian Pass, Florida.

Tropical Storm Elsa exhibited a little more organization on Monday morning. More thunderstorms formed north and east of the center of Elsa. However, the distribution of thunderstorms remained asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the east side of Tropical Storm Elsa. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles from the center of Elsa.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Elsa. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear that will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Elsa could strengthen a little before it reaches Cuba. Elsa will weaken when the center crosses Cuba. Tropical Storm Elsa could regain some strengthen when it moves over warm water southwest of the Florida Keys, but the upper level ridge will continue to cause vertical wind shear.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next several days. The high will steer Elsa toward the northwest during the next few hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Elsa will make landfall on the south coast of Cuba southeast of Havana in a few hours. The center of Elsa will pass west of the Florida Keys on Tuesday morning. The center of Tropical Storm Elsa could pass west of Tampa on Tuesday night. The stronger winds and heavy rain will occur on the eastern side of Elsa. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Winds pushing water toward the coast could cause a storm surge of up to six feet ( two meters) along the southern coast of Cuba. Tropical Storm Elsa could cause a storm surge of 2 to 4 feet (0.6 to 1.2 m) in the Florida Keys and along the west coast of Florida. A high storm surge could occur near where the center of Elsa makes landfall.

Tropical Storm Sally Prompts Hurricane Watch for Gulf Coast

Expected intensification of Tropical Storm Sally prompted the National Hurricane Center to issue a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the Gulf Coast.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located at latitude 25.7°N and longitude 81.9°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) south-southwest of Naples, Florida.  Sally was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border including New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Ochlockonee River, Florida to the Alabama/Florida Line.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Sally continued to get better organized on Saturday afternoon as it moved slowly away from Southwest Florida.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms strengthened in the eastern half of Sally and the strongest winds were occurring in those bands.  Bands in the western half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) southeast of the center of Tropical Storm Sally.  Winds in the other parts of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Sally will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Sally will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under an upper level ridge where the winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Sally will intensify and it could strengthen into a hurricane by Monday.  Once an inner core forms, Sally could intensify rapidly and there is a chance it could strengthen into a major hurricane.  The environment will not be as favorable for rapid intensification as it was for Hurricane Laura, but rapid strengthening is possible.

Tropical Storm Sally will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Sally toward the northwest during the next 48 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Sally could approach the Gulf Coast by Monday night or Tuesday.  Sally may move more slowly toward the north when it nears the western end of the high pressure system.  It will almost certainly be a hurricane when it makes landfall.  Sally could cause a storm surge of 10 feet (3 meters).  Since it will be moving slowly, Sally could drop very heavy rain and fresh water flooding will be possible.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Paulette continued toward Bermuda, Tropical Depression Rene churned in the Central Atlantic and Tropical Depression Twenty formed over the Eastern Atlantic.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located at latitude 28.4°N and longitude 58.5°W which put it about 460 miles (740 km) southeast of Bermuda.  Paulette was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.  A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Rene was located at latitude 24.3°N and longitude 45.6°W which put it about 1200 miles (1935 km) east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Rene was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Twenty was located at latitude 11.4°N and longitude 33.5°W which put it about 2030 miles (3265 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands.  The depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.