Tropical Storm Elsa was churning south of Cuba on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 81.2°W which put it about 20 miles (35 km) east-southeast of Cayo Largo, Cuba. Elsa was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key to the Dry Tortugas and for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Suwannee River, Florida. The Tropical Storm Warnings included Naples, Ft. Myers, Tampa, St. Petersburg and Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Mayabeque, Havana, Artmemisa. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key to Ocean Reef including Florida Bay and for the portion of the coast from Suwannee River, Florida to Indian Pass, Florida.

Tropical Storm Elsa exhibited a little more organization on Monday morning. More thunderstorms formed north and east of the center of Elsa. However, the distribution of thunderstorms remained asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the east side of Tropical Storm Elsa. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles from the center of Elsa.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Elsa. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear that will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Elsa could strengthen a little before it reaches Cuba. Elsa will weaken when the center crosses Cuba. Tropical Storm Elsa could regain some strengthen when it moves over warm water southwest of the Florida Keys, but the upper level ridge will continue to cause vertical wind shear.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next several days. The high will steer Elsa toward the northwest during the next few hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Elsa will make landfall on the south coast of Cuba southeast of Havana in a few hours. The center of Elsa will pass west of the Florida Keys on Tuesday morning. The center of Tropical Storm Elsa could pass west of Tampa on Tuesday night. The stronger winds and heavy rain will occur on the eastern side of Elsa. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Winds pushing water toward the coast could cause a storm surge of up to six feet ( two meters) along the southern coast of Cuba. Tropical Storm Elsa could cause a storm surge of 2 to 4 feet (0.6 to 1.2 m) in the Florida Keys and along the west coast of Florida. A high storm surge could occur near where the center of Elsa makes landfall.