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Hurricane Helene Makes Landfall in North Florida

The center of Hurricane Helene officially made landfall in North Florida on Thursday night.  The center of Helene crossed the coast of Florida near the mouth of the Aucilla River west-southwest of Perry.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Helene was located at latitude 29.9°N and longitude 83.9°W which put the center about 40 miles (65 km) southeast of Tallahassee, Florida and about 10 miles (15 km) west-southwest of Perry.  Helene was moving toward the north-northeast at 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 938 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Englewood, Florida.  The Hurricane Watch includes Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Flamingo, Florida.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Tampa Bay.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo, Florida to Little River Inlet, South Carolina.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee. 

Hurricane Helene intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale before it made landfall on the coast of Florida.  A circular eye with a diameter of 32 miles (52 km) was at the center of Helene’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Helene. Storms near the center of Helene generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane. The removal of large quantities of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Helene was large. Winds to hurricane force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Helene’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 310 miles (500 km) in the eastern side of Hurricane Helene.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the western side of Helene’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 21.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) 49.5.  Hurricane Helene is stronger than Hurricane Irma was when Irma hit southwest Florida in 2017.  However, Helene is not quite as big as Irma was.

Hurricane Helene will move around the eastern side of an upper level trough over the Mississippi River Valley.  The upper level trough will steer Helene quickly toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Helene will move across Georgia on Friday.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for parts of northern Florida, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.  The Hurricane Warnings include Tallahassee, Florida and Macon, Georgia.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Florida Peninsula, northwest Florida eastern Alabama, northern and eastern Georgia, all of South Carolina, southwestern North Carolina, and southeastern Tennessee.  The Tropical Storm Warnings include Atlanta, Georgia and Charleston, South Carolina.

Hurricane Helene will weaken gradually as it moves farther inland.  Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Georgia on Friday.  Heavy rain will also fall over the southern Appalachians.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.

Flood Watches are in effect for Florida, eastern Alabama, Georgia, western South Carolina, western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee.

Hurricane Helene will continue to cause a storm surge along the west coast of Florida during the next few hours.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Mexico Beach to Flamingo, Florida.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

Hurricane Helene Strengthens to Cat. 4

Hurricane Helene strengthened to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday evening.  At 6:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Helene was located at latitude 28.0°N and longitude 84.5°W which put the center about 165 miles (270 km) south of Tallahassee, Florida.  Helene was moving toward the north-northeast at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Englewood, Florida.  The Hurricane Watch includes Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Flamingo, Florida.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Tampa Bay.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo, Florida to Little River Inlet, South Carolina.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee. 

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Hurricane Helene was continuing to strengthen to on Thursday evening.  An eye with a diameter of 30 miles (48 km) was at the center of Helene’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Helene.  Storms near the center of Helene generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large quantities of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Helene was large.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Helene’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 345 miles (555 km) in the eastern side of Hurricane Helene.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the western side of Helene’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 23.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) 48.7.  Hurricane Helene is stronger than Hurricane Irma was when Irma hit southwest Florida in 2017.  However, Helene is not quite as big as Irma was.

Hurricane Helene will move through an environment favorable for intensification for the next few hours.  Helene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Helene could intensify a little more during the next few hours.

Hurricane Helene will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Helene toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Helene will make landfall on the coast of northern Florida at Apalachee Bay Thursday evening.  Helene will be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast.

Hurricane Helene will be a major hurricane when it reaches northern Florida.  Helene will be a large and dangerous hurricane.  Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Florida.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods.

Flood Watches are in effect for Florida, eastern Alabama, Georgia, western South Carolina, western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee.

Helene could also cause a storm surge of up to 20 feet (6.1 meters) along portions of the west coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Mexico Beach to Flamingo, Florida.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

An upper level trough over the Mississippi River Valley will steer Hurricane Helene quickly toward the north-northeast after it makes landfall.  Since the circulation around Helene is so large, Hurricane Helene will produce hurricane force winds in inland locations as well.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for parts of northern Florida, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.  The Hurricane Warnings include Tallahassee, Florida and Macon, Georgia.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Florida Peninsula, northwest Florida eastern Alabama, northern and eastern Georgia, all of South Carolina, southwestern North Carolina, and southeastern Tennessee.  The Tropical Storm Warnings include Atlanta, Georgia and Charleston, South Carolina.

Hurricane Helene is likely to cause widespread electricity outages as it moves inland over the southeastern U.S.

Helene Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Helene intensified to a major hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Helene was located at latitude 26.7°N and longitude 84.9°W which put the center about 205 miles (335 km) south of Apalachicola, Florida.  Helene was moving toward the north-northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Englewood, Florida.  The Hurricane Watch includes Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Flamingo, Florida.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Tampa Bay.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo, Florida to Little River Inlet, South Carolina.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee. 

A U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Hurricane Helene had strengthened to a major hurricane on Thursday afternoon.  An eye with a diameter of 30 miles (48 km) was at the center of Helene’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Helene.  Storms near the center of Helene generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Helene was large.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Helene’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 345 miles (555 km) in the eastern side of Hurricane Helene.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the western side of Helene’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 17.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) 39.7.  Hurricane Helene is stronger than Hurricane Irma was when Irma hit southwest Florida in 2017.  However, Helene is not as big as Irma was.

Hurricane Helene will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Helene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Helene is likely to intensify during the next few hours.  Helene could strengthen to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Helene will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Helene toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Helene will make landfall on the coast of northern Florida at Apalachee Bay Thursday evening.  Helene will be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast.

Hurricane Helene will be a major hurricane when it reaches northern Florida.  Helene will be a large and dangerous hurricane.  Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Florida.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods.

Flood Watches are in effect for Florida, eastern Alabama, Georgia, western South Carolina, western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee.

Helene could also cause a storm surge of up to 20 feet (6.1 meters) along portions of the west coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Mexico Beach to Flamingo, Florida.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

An upper level trough over the Mississippi River Valley will steer Hurricane Helene quickly toward the north-northeast after it makes landfall.  Since the circulation around Helene is so large, Hurricane Helene will produce hurricane force winds in inland locations as well.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for parts of northern Florida, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.  The Hurricane Warnings include Tallahassee, Florida and Macon, Georgia.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Florida Peninsula, northwest Florida eastern Alabama, northern and eastern Georgia, all of South Carolina, southwestern North Carolina, and southeastern Tennessee.  The Tropical Storm Warnings include Atlanta, Georgia and Charleston, South Carolina.

Hurricane Helene is likely to cause widespread electricity outages as it moves inland over the southeastern U.S.

Hurricane Helene Strengthens to Cat. 2

Hurricane Helene strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Helene was located at latitude 24.5°N and longitude 85.9°W which put the center about 365 miles (585 km) south of Apalachicola, Florida.  Helene was moving toward the north-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Englewood, Florida.  The Hurricane Watch includes Tampa Bay.  .

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Flamingo, Florida.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Tampa Bay.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo, Florida to Little River Inlet, South Carolina.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and Isle of Youth.

A U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Hurricane Helene had strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday morning.  An eye with a diameter of 30 miles (48 km) was at the center of Helene’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Helene.  Storms near the center of Helene generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Helene was large.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Helene’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 345 miles (555 km) in the eastern side of Hurricane Helene.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the western side of Helene’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 17.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) 34.1.  Hurricane Helene is similar in intensity to Hurricane Idalia that hit northeast Florida in 2023.  However, Helene is much bigger than Idalia was.  Helene is still intensifying.  So, Helen will be stronger than Idalia was when i reaches the coast.

Hurricane Helene will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Helene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Helene will intensify during the next 12 hours.  Helene is likely to strengthen to a major hurricane by Thursday afternoon.  Helene could intensify rapidly at times.

Hurricane Helene will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Helene toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Helene will make landfall on the coast of northern Florida at Apalachee Bay Thursday evening.  Helene is likely to be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast

Hurricane Helene is likely to be a major hurricane when it reaches northern Florida.  Helene will be a large and dangerous hurricane.  Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Florida.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods.

Flood Watches are in effect for Florida, eastern Alabama, Georgia, western South Carolina, western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee.

Helene could also cause a storm surge of up to 20 feet (6.1 meters) along portions of the west coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Mexico Beach to Flamingo, Florida.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

An upper level trough over the Mississippi River Valley will steer Hurricane Helene quickly toward the north-northeast after it makes landfall.  Since the circulation around Helene is so large, Hurricane Helene will produce hurricane force winds in inland locations as well.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for parts of northern Florida, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.  The Hurricane Warnings include Tallahassee, Florida and Macon, Georgia.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Florida Peninsula, northwest Florida eastern Alabama, northern and eastern Georgia, all of South Carolina, southwestern North Carolina, and southeastern Tennessee.  The Tropical Storm Warnings include Atlanta, Georgia and Charleston, South Carolina.

Hurricane Helene is likely to cause widespread electricity outages as it moves inland over the southeastern U.S.

Helene Strengthens to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Helene strengthened to a hurricane northeast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Helene was located at latitude 21.6°N and longitude 86.3°W which put the center about 500 miles (810 km) south-southwest of Tampa, Florida.  Helene was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico.  That Hurricane Warning includes Cancun and Cozumel.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Englewood, Florida.  The Hurricane Watch includes Tampa Bay.  A Hurricane Watch is also in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Flamingo, Florida.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Tampa Bay.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from South Santee River to Little River Inlet, South Carolina.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that former Tropical Storm Helene had strengthened to a hurricane on Wednesday morning.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern, western and southern sides of the center of Helene’s circulation.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Hellene.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Helene.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Hurricane Helene.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 275 miles (445 km) in the eastern side of Helene’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the eastern side of Hurricane Helene.

Hurricane Helene will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Helene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico and the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Helene will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Helene is likely to strengthen to a major hurricane by Thursday afternoon.  Helene could intensify rapidly after an inner core with an eye and an eyewall is fully developed.

Hurricane Helene will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Helene toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Helene will approach northern Florida on Thursday afternoon.  Helene is likely to be a major hurricane when it reaches the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Helene is likely to be a major hurricane when it approaches northern Florida on Thursday.  Helene will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Florida.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods.

Flood Watches are in effect for Florida, eastern Alabama, and Georgia.

Helene could also cause a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) along portions of the west coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Flamingo, Florida.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Mexico Beach, Florida.

Tropical Storm Helene Forms Over Northwest Caribbean Sea

Tropical Storm Helene formed over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 84.5°W which put the center about 175 miles (280 km) south of the western tip of Cuba.  Helene was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Englewood, Florida.  The Hurricane Watch includes Tampa Bay.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico.  The Hurricane Watch includes Cancun and Cozumel.  A Hurricane Watch is also in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Lower Florida Keys west of Seven Mile Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Cancun and Cozumel.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Middle Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Flamingo, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Walton/Bay County Line to Indian Pass, Florida.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft found that a low pressure system previously designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine had strengthened over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday morning.  Based on data collected by the reconnaissance flight, the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Helene.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Helene exhibited more organization on Tuesday.  The reconnaissance plane found a well defined low level center of circulation.  Even though the circulation around Helene was more organized, the distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Helene.  Bands in the western side of Helene consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  More thunderstorms were starting to develop in the bands in the western side of Helene’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Helene began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Helene was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the eastern side of Helene’s circulation.  The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Helene were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Helene will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Helene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico and the northwestern Caribbean Sea.   The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Helene will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Helene is likely to strengthen to a hurricane by Wednesday morning.

Tropical Storm Helene will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Helene toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Helene will be near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday morning.  Helene will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.  Helene is likely to approach northern Florida on Thursday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Helene is likely to be a hurricane when it reaches the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula.  Helene will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula and to western Cuba.

Tropical Storm Helene could be a major hurricane when it approaches northern Florida on Thursday.  Helene will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Florida.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods.  Helene could also cause a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) along portions of the coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Flamingo, Florida.  The Storm Surge Watch includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

Idalia Strengthens to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Idalia strengthened to a hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Idalia was located at latitude 23.8°N and longitude 84.8°W which put it about 320 miles (515 km) south-southwest of Tampa, Florida. Idalia was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to the middle of Longboat Key, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa Bay. A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the Cuban Province of Pinar del Rio. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to the middle of Longboat Key, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to the middle of Longboat Key, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Mexico Beach, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Cuban Province. of Isle of Youth. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Lower Florida Keys west of Seven Mile Bridge. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to South Santee River, South Carolina.

Former Tropical Storm Idalia strengthened to a hurricane after the center of Idalia moved north of the western end of Cuba. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Idalia’s circulation. A weather radar at La Bajada, Cuba showed a small eye developed at the center of Hurricane Idalia. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Idalia’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Idalia grew larger when Idalia intensified. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Idalia’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Idalia will move into an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Idalia will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move into a region between an upper level ridge over the Yucatan Peninsula and an upper level trough over the central U.S. The upper level winds are weaker between the ridge and the trough and there will be little vertical wind shear during the next 12 to 18 hours. The upper level winds will be stronger when Idalia moves closer to the upper level trough on Wednesday morning. Hurricane Idalia will intensify during the next 24 hours. Idalia could intensify rapidly now that an inner core with an eye and an eyewall have developed. Hurricane Idalia could strengthen to a major hurricane.

Tropical Storm Idalia will move around the western end of high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system and the upper level trough over the central U.S. will steer Idalia toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Idalia is likely to make landfall on the coast of the northeast Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday morning. Idalia could make landfall as a major hurricane.

Hurricane Idalia is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Florida. Idalia could be similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005. Hurricane Idalia is likely to make landfall in an area where high storm surges can occur. Idalia could cause a storm surge of up to 12 feet (3.5 meters) near where the center makes landfall. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Indian Pass, Florida. The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay. Hurricane Idalia will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of central and northern Florida. Widespread outages of electricity are likely. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Franklin was a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Atlantic Ocean west-southwest of Bermuda. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Franklin was located at latitude 30.4°N and longitude 70.7°W which put it about 370 miles (600 km) west-southwest of Bermuda. Franklin was moving toward the north-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 941 mb. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Idalia Causes Hurricane Warning for West Coast of Florida

The imminent threat posed by Tropical Storm Idalia caused the issuance of a Hurricane Warning for the west coast of Florida on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was located at latitude 20.8°N and longitude 85.2°W which put it about 80 miles (130 km) south-southwest of the western end of Cuba. Idalia was moving toward the north at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Ochlockonee River to the middle of Longboat Key, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa Bay. A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the Cuban Province of Pinar del Rio. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portions of the coast from Englewood to the middle of Longboat Key, Florida and from the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to the middle of Longboat Key, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning included Cozumel. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Cuban Province. of Isle of Youth. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Lower Florida Keys west of Seven Mile Bridge. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

Tropical Storm Idalai strengthened gradually on Monday morning. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Idalia’s circulation. Even though Tropical Storm Idalia was stronger, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms in Idalia were in bands in the southern and eastern parts of the circulation. Bands north and west of the center of circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Storm Idalia was under the eastern part of an upper level ridge over the Yucatan Peninsula. The ridge was producing northeasterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Idalia’s circulation. Those winds were causing vertical wind shear and the wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm Idalia will move into an environment that will become more favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Idalia will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move into a region between the upper level ridge over the Yucatan Peninsula and an upper level low over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The upper level winds are weaker between the ridge and the low and there will be less vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Idalia will intensify to a hurricane during the next 24 hours. Idalia could intensify rapidly when the upper level winds weaken. Idalia could strengthen to a major hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Idalia will move around the western end of high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Idalia toward the north during the next 24 hours. The center of Idalia will pass near the western end of Cuba in a few hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Idalia will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday night. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will turn Idalia toward the northeast later on Tuesday. Idalia is likely to make landfall on the west coast of Florida on Wednesday morning. Idalia could make landfall as a major hurricane.

Tropical Storm Idalia will drop heavy rain over parts of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Idalia could be be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of Florida. Idalia is likely to make landfall in an area where high storm surges can occur. Idalia could cause a storm surge of up to 12 feet (3.5 meters) near where the center makes landfall. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Ocholockonee River, Florida. The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay. Idalia will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of central and northern Florida. Widespread outages of electricity are likely. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Franklin rapidly intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale was over the Atlantic Ocean southwest of Bermuda. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Franklin was located at latitude 27.8°N and longitude 71.0°W which put it about 480 miles (770 km) southwest of Bermuda. Franklin was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (280 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Idalia Prompts Hurricane Watch for West Coast of Florida

A risk posed by Tropical Storm Idalia prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Watch for part of the west coast of Florida. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 85.5°W which put it about 95 miles (155 km) east-southeast of Cozumel. Idalia was moving toward the northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (60 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Indian Pass, Florida. The Hurricane Watch included Tampa Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning included Cozumel. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Cuban Province. of Pinar del Rio. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Chokoloskee, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Isle of Youth.

Tropical Storm Idalia did not change a lot on Sunday afternoon. A few more thunderstorms developed near the low level center of circulation. The low level center of circulation was meandering around inside of a larger counterclockwise rotation over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea. There were bands of showers and thunderstorms in the larger counterclockwise circulation. The thunderstorms in the larger circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the low level center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Idalia will be in an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Idalia will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will be under an upper level ridge over the Yucatan Channel. The winds are weak in the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, much of the air moving around the western side of Tropical Storm Idalia will pass over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Some of the air in the eastern side of the Idalia will pass over western Cuba. The flow of air over land will inhibit intensification, but it probably will not prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Idalia could intensify slowly during the next 12 hours. Idalia could intensify more quickly on Monday when it moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Idalia is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane by Monday night

.Tropical Storm Idalia will be in a region where the steering currents are weak during the next 12 hours. Idalia may not move much during that time period. A high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean will start to steer Idalia toward the north on Monday. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Idalia will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. could start to turn Idalia toward the northeast later on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Idalia will drop heavy rain over parts of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Idalia is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the west coast of Florida. Idalia is likely to make landfall in an area where high storm surges can occur. Idalia could cause a storm surge of up to 11 feet (3.3 meters) near where the center makes landfall. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to Indian Pass, Florida. The Storm Surge Watch includes Tampa Bay.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Franklin was over the Atlantic Ocean southwest of Bermuda. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Franklin was located at latitude 25.9°N and longitude 70.0°W which put it about 535 miles (855 km) southwest of Bermuda. Franklin was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

Hurricane Ian Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 4

Hurricane Ian rapidly intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it approached the coast of Southwest Florida early on Wednesday. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Ian was located at latitude 26.0°N and longitude 82.7°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) southwest of Punta Gorda, Florida. Ian was moving toward the north-northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to Anclote River, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for all of the Florida Keys. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Chokoloskee, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropcial Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Bimini and Grand Bahama Island.

Hurricane Ian completed a quick eyewall replacement cycle during Tuesday night. The original eye and eyewall quickly dissipated and a new larger eye was evident on satellite and radar images. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) is now present at the center of Ian’s circulation. The new eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of Hurricane Ian’s circulation. Storms near the core are generating strong upper level divergence that is pumping mass away to the north and east of the hurricane.

The quick eyewall replacement cycle caused the circulation around Ian to get bigger. Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Ian’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 33.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 49.6. Hurricane Ian was capable of causing regional severe damage.

Hurricane Ian is now stronger than Hurricane Charley was when Charley made landfall in Southwest Florida in 2004, and Ian is much bigger than Charley was. Hurricane Ian is very similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Michael, when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.

Ian will move through an environment favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next few hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ian’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear is not likely to be strong enough during the next few hours to cause Hurricane Ian to weaken significantly before it makes landfall in Southwest Florida.

The upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Ian toward the north-northeast on Wednesday. On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Ian could make landfall on the coast of Southwest Florida between Ft. Myers and Sarasota on Wednesday afternoon. Ian could move slowly inland over Central Florida on Thursday. Hurricane Ian is likely to bring a prolonged period of strong gusty winds to Southwest Florida and to Central Florida. Ian will be capable of causing severe damage. A prolonged period of strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages. Hurricane Ian will move slowly inland and 10 to 20 inches of rain could fall in some locations. Fresh water flooding could occur in Central Florida. A storm surge of 12 to 16 feet (3.5 to 5 meters) could occur along the coast of Southwest Florida.

Hurricane Ian is bigger and stronger than Hurricane Charley was when Charley hit Southwest Florida in 2004. Ian is likely to cause much more wind damage than Charley caused. Hurricane Ian is also likely to cause a higher storm surge along the coast than Charley caused.