Hurricane Warnings and Storm Surge Warnings were issued for the west coast of Florida because of the threat posed by Category 5 Hurricane Milton.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Milton was located at latitude 21.8°N and longitude 90.8°W which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico.  Milton was moving toward the east-southeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 215 m.p.h. (345 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 905 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Hurricane Warning includes Tampa Bay.  AA Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Celestun to Rio Lagartos, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the St. Lucie. Indian River County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary’s River, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Celestun to Campeche, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Bonita Beach, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Rio Lagartos to Cancun, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Celestun to Campeche, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line, Florida.   A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary’s River, Florida to the South Santee River, South Carolina.

Hurricane Milton continued to intensify late on Monday afternoon.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Milton’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Milton.  Storms near the center of Milton’s circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

Hurricane Milton is a small hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extend out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Milton’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Hurricane Milton.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Milton is 42.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 10.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 52.8.  Hurricane Milton is stronger than Hurricane Michael was when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.  Milton is not quite as big as Michael was.

Hurricane Milton move through an environment favorable fora powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Milton will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Milton will could intensify a little more during the next 24 hours.  However, the inner end of a rainband could wrap around the existing eye and eyewall.  If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle will cause Hurricane Milton to weaken.  If an eyewall replacement cycle occurs, then the size of Milton’s circulation will get larger.

An upper level trough over the central U.S. will start to steer Milton more quickly toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Milton will reach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday evening.  Milton will be a major hurricane when it reaches Florida.

Hurricane Milton will be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Florida.  Milton will bring strong gusty winds and heavy rain to the west coast of Florida.  Milton will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Florida.  Milton will be capable of causing major damage. Heavy rains will cause floods in some locations.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.

Flood Watches are in effect for much of the Florida Peninsula.

Milton will also produce a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) along the west coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Edisto Beach, South Carolina.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Leslie was slowly weakening.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Leslie was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 42.1°W which put the center about 1185 miles (1910 km) west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Leslie was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.