Tag Archives: Tropical Storm Cindy

Cindy Weakens to a Tropical Wave

Former Tropical Storm Cindy weakened to a tropical wave over the Atlantic Ocean south-southeast of Bermuda on Sunday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Wave Cindy was located at latitude 22.8°N and longitude 60.0°W which put it about 375 miles (605 km) north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Former Tropical Storm Cindy was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb.

An upper level trough over the western Atlantic Ocean produced southwesterly winds that blew toward the top of former Tropical Storm Cindy’s circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear blew the tops off of new thunderstorms that started to form near the center of circulation. Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern half of the circulation around former Tropical Storm Cindy. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force were occurring about 70 miles (110 km) northeast of the center of circulation. Winds in the other parts of former Tropical Storm Cindy were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Former Tropical Storm Cindy will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Cindy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the upper level trough over the western Atlantic will cause strong vertical wind shear to continue for several more days. Former Tropical Storm Cindy could move into an area where there is less vertical wind shear in a couple of days. There is a slight chance that former Tropical Storm Cindy could strengthen when the wind shear decreases during the middle of the week.

Bret Weakens to a Tropical Wave North of Colombia

Former Tropical Storm Bret weakened to a tropical wave over the Caribbean Sea north of Colombia. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Wave Bret was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 73.8°W which put it about 160 miles (260 km) west-northwest of the Guajira Peninsula, Colombia. Bret was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Bret moved under the western part of an upper level trough over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Saturday. The upper level trough produced strong northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Bret’s circulation. A subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean produced strong easterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. The combination of northwesterly winds in the upper levels and easterly winds in the lower levels caused strong vertical wind shear. The strong vertical wind shear prevented thunderstorms from persisting near the low level center of Bret’s circulation. The lack of thunderstorms near the center of circulation caused former Tropical Storm Bret to weaken.

The circulation around former Tropical Storm Bret still contained winds to tropical storm force in the northeastern quadrant of the system. Winds to tropical storm force were occurring in thunderstorms in bands about 115 miles (185 km) northeast of the center of Bret’s circulation. The winds in the other parts of former Tropical Storm Bret were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Former Tropical Storm Bret will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Bret will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the strong vertical wind shear is forecast to continue. Former Tropical Storm Bret will continue to weaken during the next 36 hours as it moves quickly west toward Nicaragua.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Cindy was spinning east-northeast of the Lesser Antilles. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 54.7°W which put it about 465 miles (750 km) east-northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Cindy was moving toward the northwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb. Tropical Storm Cindy is forecast to move into an area where there will be strong vertical wind shear. Cindy is forecast to weaken during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Bret Moves over Eastern Caribbean Sea

Tropical Storm Bret moved over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located at latitude 13.3°N and longitude 64.7°W which put it about 300 miles (480 km) east-northeast of Curacao. Bret was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Bret was maintaining its intensity as it moved over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday morning. New thunderstorms developed near the low level center of circulation. However, the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Bret remained asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Bret’s circulation. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Bret.

Tropical Storm Bret will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bret will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bret’s circulation. Bret will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will produce strong easterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Southwesterly winds in the upper level and the strong easterly winds in in the lower levels will cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Bret to weaken during the next 24 hours. Bret could weaken to a tropical wave during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Bret will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will steer Bret toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Bret will pass north of Bonaire, Curacao and Aruba on Saturday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Cindy strengthened east of the Lesser Antilles. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located at latitude 12.5°N and longitude 48.0°W which put it about 915 miles (1470 km) east of the Lesser Antilles. Cindy was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Bret Brings Wind and Rain to Lesser Antilles

Tropical Storm Bret brought gusty winds and rain to the Lesser Antilles on Thursday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located at latitude 13.3°N and longitude 61.1°W which put it about 5 miles (10 km) east of St. Vincent. Bret was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

Tropical Storm Bret brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Lesser Antilles on Thursday night. A weather station in St. Lucia reported a sustained wind speed of 41 m.p.h. (67 km/h) and a wind gust of 69 m.p.h. (111 km/h). A weather station at Grantley Adams airport in Barbados reported a sustained wind speed of 26 m.p.h. (42 km/h) and a wind gust of 52 m.p.h. (84 km/h).

The intensity of Tropical Storm Bret peaked on Thursday morning at close to hurricane intensity. After its intensity peaked in the morning, the portion of Bret’s circulation in the lower levels raced out ahead (to the west) of the parts of the circulation in the middle and upper troposphere. The rapid movement of the circulation near the surface created strong vertical wind shear. The lower level circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands the eastern part of Tropical Storm Brett. Those thunderstorms were occurring near the circulation center in the middle levels. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Bret’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Bret will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bret will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bret’s circulation. Bret will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will produce strong easterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Southwesterly winds in the upper level and the strong easterly winds in in the lower levels will cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Bret to weaken during the next 24 hours. Bret could weaken to a tropical wave during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Bret will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will steer Bret toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Bret will move over the Caribbean Sea west of the Lesser Antilles on Friday. Bret will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines during the next few hours. Bands in the northern part of Bret’s circulation will also bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Martinique and Dominica. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Gusty winds and locally heavy rain in Barbados will end on Friday when Tropical Storm Bret moves over the Caribbean Sea. .

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Depression Four strengthened to Tropical Storm Cindy on Thursday evening halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located at latitude 11.7°N and longitude 45.2°W which put it about 1110 miles (1785 km) east of the Lesser Antilles. Cindy was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Depression Cindy Brings Stormy Weather to Southern U.S.

Tropical Depression Cindy brought stormy weather to parts of the southern U.S. on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Cindy was located at latitude 33.1°N and 93.5°W which put it about 70 miles (115 km) southwest of Little Rock, Arkansas.  Cindy was moving toward the north-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 20 m.p.h. (30 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall early on Thursday morning near the border between Texas and Louisiana.  Cindy moved steadily northward during the day and it was centered over southwestern Arkansas by Thursday night.  Broad counterclockwise rotation around Cindy transported warm and very humid air over the southern U.S.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms dropped locally heavy rain in some places.  Rivers and streams were above flood stage in several southern states.  Flash Flood Warnings and Flash Flood Watches were issued for portions of the southern U.S. and Ohio River Valley.  Several tornadoes formed in the bands of thunderstorms.  A tornado in Alabama caused property damage.  Southerly winds blowing toward the shore were still causing storm surges along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Depression Cindy is forecast to move northeast toward the Ohio River Valley on Friday.  It will continue to produce locally heavy rain.  A slow moving cold front will approach the region from the west.  A band of stronger convergence could develop where the counterclockwise flow around Cindy interacts with the flow along the cold front.  Higher rainfall totals may occur where this interaction happens.  Wind shear created by the interacting weather systems could also create the potential for some tornadoes.  Tropical Depression Cindy could merge with the cold front during Friday night or Saturday.

Tropical Storm Cindy Nears Northwest Gulf Coast

Tropical Storm Cindy neared the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located at latitude 28.6°N and longitude 93.4°W which put it about 95 miles (150 km) south-southeast of Port Arthur, Texas.  Cindy was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from San Luis Pass, Texas to Grand Isle, Louisiana.

Tropical Cyclone Cindy exhibits a hybrid structure in which a broad surface low pressure system is interacting with an upper low centered near the Upper Texas coast.  There is a distinct center of low pressure at the surface.  A band of showers and thunderstorms is northwest of the surface center.  Drier air in the middle and upper levels wraps around the southern and eastern sides of the center and there are no thunderstorms in those quadrants of the core of Tropical Storm Cindy.  A broad flow of moisture is producing bands of showers and thunderstorms in the outer portions of the eastern and northern sides of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Cindy is moving around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system centered over the Atlantic Ocean.  The subtropical high is steering Cindy toward the north-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Cindy will make landfall near the border between Texas and Louisiana on Thursday.  Cindy will turn toward the north and then the tropical storm will move northeastward on Friday.

Some locations will experience prolonged periods of rainfall and fresh water flooding will be possible in those area.  There could also be a storm surge of 3 to 6 feet (1 to 3 meters) near where the center makes landfall.  A few tornadoes could be spun up as rainbands move over the coast.

Tropical Storm Cindy Strengthens Over the Central Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Cindy strengthened on Tuesday night as is moved slowly over the Central Gulf of Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located at latitude 26.4°N and longitude 91.0°W which put it about 305 miles (495 km) southeast of Galveston, Texas.  Cindy was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from San Luis Pass, Texas to the Alabama/Florida border including Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.

Although Tropical Storm Cindy does not look very impressive on infrared satellite imagery, data from reconnaissance aircraft and surface observations from buoys and ships indicate that it has strengthened during the past few hours.  Tropical Storm Cindy displays the structure of a highly sheared tropical storm.  There are no thunderstorms near the center of circulation.  Most of the showers and thunderstorms are in bands well to the east and north of the center of circulation.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Cindy is large and winds to tropical storm force extend out about 275 miles (445 km) northeast of the center.

A combination of an upper level low to the northwest of Cindy and an upper level ridge to the east of it have generated enough upper level divergence to cause the surface pressure to decrease.  The lower pressure at the center created a bigger pressure difference with the subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean and the stronger pressure gradient force accelerated the wind speed.  So, even though the upper level low produced enough vertical wind shear to prevent a classical process of tropical intensification in Tropical Storm Cindy, the larger scale weather features combined to produce a stronger, larger tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Cindy could intensify a little more if the large scale environment pumps out more mass and the surface pressure decreases further.  The tropical storm could also intensify if the upper low moves farther away from Cindy and the wind shear decreases.  It is unlikely that Tropical Storm Cindy will intensify into a hurricane, but there is a slight possibility that could occur before it makes landfall.

The subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean is steering Tropical Storm Cindy slowly toward the northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for another 12 to 24 hours.  Cindy could gradually turn toward the north as it approaches the coast and the tropical storm will turn toward the northeast after it moves inland.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Cindy could approach the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night.

The large size of the circulation of Tropical Storm Cindy and its slow motion mean that locally heavy rain and flooding are the greater risks.  There is also the potential for rainbands to spin up tornadoes when they move onto the coast.  Southerly winds driving water toward the coast are already causing a storm surge along parts of the coast of Louisiana.  A storm surge of 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) may be possible where the strongest winds strike the coast.