Former Tropical Storm Rafael intensified to a hurricane near the Cayman Islands on Tuesday evening. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Rafael was located at latitude 19.7°N and longitude 80.4°W which put the center about 60 miles (95 km) east-northeast of Grand Cayman. Rafael was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.
A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.
A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritis, and Ciego de Avila.
A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys from Key West to Channel 5 Bridge. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas.
Former Tropical Storm Rafael intensified to a hurricane on Tuesday evening. A circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (17 km) formed at the center of Rafael’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Rafael. Storms near the core of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.
Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Hurricane Rafael. Wind to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern side of Rafael’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the western side of Hurricane Rafael.
Hurricane Rafael will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Rafael will intensify during the next 24 hours. Rafael could intensify rapidly at times.
Hurricane Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Rafael will move away from the Cayman Islands. Rafael is likely to reach western Cuba by Wednesday afternoon.
Hurricane Rafael will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Cayman Islands for the next few hours. Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations. Rafael could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) in the Cayman Islands. Hurricane Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain to western Cuba. Strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages in Cuba. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Rafael could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the south coast of western Cuba.