Hurricane Francine strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Wednesday afternoon as it neared southeast Louisiana. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Francine was located at latitude 29.2°N and longitude 91.5°W which put the center about 40 miles (65 km) south-southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana. Francine was moving toward the northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line to Grand Isle, Louisiana
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cameron to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border. The Tropical Storm Warning includes New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.
Data from reconnaissance aircraft in Hurricane Francine on Wednesday afternoon indicated that Francine had strengthened to a Category 2 Hurricane. A large circular eye with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) was at the center of Francine’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and eastern sides of Francine’s circulation. Bands in the southern and western sides of Hurricane Francine consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.
The center of Hurricane Francine appeared to wobble slightly to the east as it approached the coast of Louisiana. The northern part of the eyewall of Hurricane Francine was moving over the coast of southeast Louisiana south of Morgan City. A NOAA National Ocean Service station north of Eugene Island, Louisiana (EINL1) reported a sustained wind speed of 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and a wind gust of 99 m.p.h. ((160 km/h). The station reported a surface pressure of 981.4 mb.
The strongest winds were occurring southeast of the center of Hurricane Francine. Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Francine’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Hurricane Francine.
The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.2. Hurricane Francine was similar in intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023. Francine was larger than Idalia was.
Hurricane Francine will move between a high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico and an upper level trough over the South Central U.S, The high pressure system and the upper level trough will steer Francine toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Francine will make landfall on the southeast coast of Louisiana late during the next several hours. Francine will move across southeast Louisiana on Wednesday night.
Hurricane Francine will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Louisiana. Heavy rain was already falling on many places in southeast Louisiana. Francine will be capable of causing serious damage. Widespread outages of electricity are likely. Heavy rain is likely to cause floods. The heaviest rain will fall as the center of Francine’s circulation approaches a given location. Hurricane Francine will also drop heavy rain over parts of Mississippi, South Alabama and Northwest Florida as it moves inland.
Flood Watches are in effect for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Northwest Florida.
Hurricane Francine could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the coast of Louisiana. The highest surge will occur just to the east of where the center of Francine makes landfall in southeast Louisiana. The storm surge will continue after the center of Hurricane Francine makes landfall because southerly winds will continue to push water toward the coast.
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cameron/Vermilion Parish Line, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border. The Storm Surge Warning includes Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.