Tropical Wave Likely to Prompt Watches and Warnings for Florida

A tropical wave over eastern Cuba is likely to prompt the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for Florida on Friday.  The tropical wave is currently designated as Invest 97L.  At 2:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Invest 97L was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 74.1°W which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) east of Guantanamo, Cuba.  The tropical wave was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.

The axis of a tropical wave is over eastern Cuba early on Friday morning.  The tropical wave is currently designated as Invest 97L.  There is not a well defined low level circulation in the tropical wave.  There is a broad counterclockwise rotation along the axis of the tropical wave.  Much of the rotation is over eastern Cuba.  Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are embedded in the broad counterclockwise rotation.

The tropical wave currently designated as Invest 97L will move into an environment favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Invest 97L will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.   It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge over the southeastern U.S.  The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical wave.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The tropical wave is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone as long as the center of the wave is over Cuba.  A tropical depression or a tropical storm is likely to form on Saturday when Invest 97L moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

The tropical wave is moving around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Invest 97L toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the tropical wave will move toward the Florida Keys.  Invest 97L is likely to move toward the north during the weekend when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.

The tropical wave is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Florida during the weekend.  Heavy rain could cause widespread flooding.