Tag Archives: Tropical Depression Eight

Tropical Storm Fred Strengthens on Approach to Northwest Florida

Tropical Storm Fred strengthened as it approach the coast of Northwest Florida on Monday morning. At 8:30 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located at latitude 28.7°N and longitude 85.6°W which put it about 80 miles (130 km) south-southwest of Apalachicola Florida. Fred was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Wakulla/Jefferson County Line to Navarre, Florida.

A reconnaissance plane sampling Tropical Storm Fred on Monday morning found that Fred was intensifying. Satellite and radar images showed that Tropical Storm Fred was developing a structure that is typical of tropical storms. Radar images also showed that the inner end of a rainband was wrapping around the center of Fred and a small eye might be forming at the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Fred. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The distribution of thunderstorms and the wind field around Fred continued to be asymmetrical. The strong thunderstorms were around the center of circulation and in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Fred. Bands in the western half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The strongest winds were also in the eastern half of Fred. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) on the eastern side of the circulation. Winds in the much of western half of Fred were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fred will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Fred will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge centered near Cuba. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fred’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Fred from intensifying. Tropical Storm Fred is likely to continue to intensify gradually during the next few hours.

Tropical Storm Fred will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fred toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fred will make landfall on the coast of Northwest Florida between Apalachicola and Panama City in a few hours. Fred will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Northwest Florida, southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. Flash Flood Watches have been issued for some of those areas. Tropical Storm Fred could also cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along portions of the coast. The part of the coast around the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is very vulnerable to storm surges. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Yankeetown, Florida. Thunderstorms in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Fred could produce tornadoes.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Grace was passing south of Hispaniola and Tropical Depression Eight was slowly getting better organized east of Bermuda.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 70.9°W which put it about 125 miles (200 km) southeast of Port Au Prince, Haiti. Grace was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the entire coast of the Dominican Republic and the entire coast of Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Jamaica.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located at latitude 31.7°N and longitude 62.8°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) east-southeast of Bermuda. The tropical depression was moving toward the south at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (505km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Fred Gets a Little Stronger

Tropical Storm Fred got a little stronger on Sunday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located at latitude 27.3°N and longitude 85.9°W which put it about 200 miles (320 km) south of Panama City, Florida. Fred was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Wakulla/Jefferson County Line to Navarre, Florida.

Tropical Storm Fred strengthened gradually on Sunday night. Upper level divergence pumped mass away from the tropical storm and the minimum surface pressure decreased to 999 mb. The decrease in pressure generated more force and the wind speed increased to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The distribution of thunderstorms and the wind field around Tropical Storm Fred remained asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern side of Fred. The strongest winds were also occurring on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Fred. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) on the eastern side of Fred. The winds in the western half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fred will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Fred will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge centered near Cuba. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fred’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Fred from intensifying. Tropical Storm Fred is likely to continue to intensify gradually during the next 18 hours.

Tropical Storm Fred will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fred toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fred will approach the coast of Northwest Florida on Monday afternoon. Fred will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Northwest Florida. Tropical Storm Fred could also cause a storm surge of up to six feet (1.8 meters) along portions of the coast. The part of the coast around the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is very vulnerable to storm surges. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Yankeetown, Florida.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Grace weakened to a tropical depression as it passed south of Puerto Rico and Tropical Depression Eight formed east-northeast of Bermuda. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 68.6°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) southeast of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. Grace was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the entire coast of the Dominican Republic and the entire coast of Haiti.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located at latitude 33.2°N and longitude 62.7°W which put it about 135 miles (220 km) east-northeast of Bermuda. The tropical depression was moving toward the south at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1014 mb. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Depression Eight Forms Over Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Depression Eight formed over the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night and a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the coast of Texas.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located at latitude 25.9°N and longitude 88.2°W which put it about 530 miles (855 km) east-southeast of Port Oconnor, Texas.  The depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast of Texas from Port Mansfield to High Island.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of a low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Eight.  The thunderstorms were forming in bands in the northern half of the circulation.  Bands in the southern half of the depression consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Depression Eight will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level low over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the depression.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Depression Eight is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Depression Eight will move south of a subtropical high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean across the southern U.S.  The high will steer the depression toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Eight could approach the coast of Texas on Friday night.  It is likely to be a tropical storm when it approaches the coast.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Gonzalo strengthened as it moved toward the Windward Islands and a Hurricane Watch was issued for Barbados.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located at latitude 9.9°N and longitude 45.9°W which put it about 1045 miles (1685 km) east of the southern Windward Islands.  Gonzalo was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

TD 8 Strengthens to Tropical Storm Gert

Tropical Depression Eight strengthened to Tropical Storm Gert on Sunday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Gert was located at latitude 28.1°N and longitude 71.7°W which put it about 505 miles (810 km) west-southwest of Bermuda.  Gert was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb.

The structure of Tropical Storm Gert improved on Sunday.  Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms developed and began to rotate around the center of circulation.  The thunderstorms began to produce upper level divergence which was pumping out mass in all directions.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Gert became more circular and symmetrical.

Tropical Storm Gert will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gert will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level winds over Tropical Storm Gert are weak and there is not much vertical wind shear.  There is an upper level ridge northwest of Tropical Storm Gert and the ridge is producing northeasterly winds west of Bermuda.  So, the vertical wind shear could increase when Gert moves farther north.  Tropical Storm Gert will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Gert is moving around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high is steering Gert toward the north-northwest and a northerly motion is  expected to continue for another 24 hours.  When Gert moves west of Bermuda, it will start to encounter the westerly winds in the middle latitudes.  Those winds should turn Tropical Storm Gert toward the northeast in a day or so.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Gert is expected to move east of the U.S. and west of Bermuda.

Tropical Depression Eight Forms East of the Bahamas

Tropical Depression Eight formed east of the Bahamas on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located at latitude 25.3°N and longitude 70.3°W which put it about 470 miles (755 km) east of Nassau, Bahamas.  It was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb.

Data from satellites and NOAA buoy 41046 indicated that a low level center of circulation formed within former Invest 99L.  Based on those data the National Hurricane Center classified the system as Tropical Depression Eight.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms began to develop in Invest 99L on Saturday afternoon.  There were more bands in the eastern half of the circulation than there were in the western half.  Thunderstorms in the bands began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping away mass.  The circulation took on a more circular appearance and they system exhibited the characteristics of a tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Eight will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 to 48 hours.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper low that was inhibiting the development of Invest 99L dissipated on Saturday.  When the upper low dissipated, the upper level winds weakened.  Tropical Depression Eight will move through an area where there is little vertical wind shear.  It will likely strengthen into Tropical Storm Gert on Sunday.  It could eventually intensify into a hurricane.

Tropical Depression Eight is moving around the western end of the subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high is steering the depression toward the north-northwest and it is forecast to move primarily toward the north during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Tropical Depression Eight will eventually reach the westerly winds in the middle latitudes and it will turn toward the northeast when that happens.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Eight will remain east of the Bahamas.

Tropical Depression Eight Prompts Tropical Storm Warning for North Carolina

The approach of Tropical Depression Eight and the potential for intensification prompted the National Hurricane Center to issue a Tropical Storm Warning for the portion of the coast from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet, North Carolina including Pamlico Sound.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located at latitude 33.6°N and longitude 74.0°W which put it about 140 miles (225 km) southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  It was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb.

Vertical wind shear disrupted the circulation of Tropical Depression Eight earlier today, but more thunderstorms developed northwest of the center of circulation during the afternoon.  The circulation is still not well organized, but there are indications on radar that it could be developing a tighter center.  An upper level low centered near Savannah, Georgia is producing southerly winds which are causing the moderate vertical wind shear over the depression.  The upper level winds are blocking upper level divergence to the south of Tropical Depression Eight, but there are some sign that upper level divergence could be occurring to the northeast.

Tropical Depression Eight could move into an area marginally more favorable for intensification.  As it gets farther from the upper level low, the winds aloft will decrease.  The depression is moving near the Gulf Stream and the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29.5°C.  If thunderstorms persist near the center of circulation and a more coherent vertical structure develops, the the depression could strengthen into a tropical storm.

The upper low is steering Tropical Depression toward the northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for another day or so.  When the depression reaches latitude 35°N, westerly winds will begin to steer it off toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Eight could be very near Cape Hatteras in 24 to 36 hours.

Although Tropical Depression Eight will bring some stronger winds, locally heavy rain, rip currents, higher waves and beach erosion are greater risks.

Tropical Depressions Form South of Key West & Southeast of Cape Hatteras

Two tropical depressions formed near the U.S. on Sunday.  Tropical Depression Nine formed south of Key West, Florida and Tropical Depression Eight formed southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Both depressions could have an impact on the U.S., but Tropical Depression Nine could pose a greater risk to the southeastern U.S.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located at latitude 23.7°N and longitude 81.7°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) south of Key West, Florida.  It was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located at latitude 31.8°N and longitude 70.9°W which put it about 355 miles (570 km) southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  It was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Depression Nine is still organizing.  A NOAA plane found a distinct center of circulation, but most of the stronger thunderstorms are south and east of the center.  There is a broader counterclockwise rotation with numerous showers and thunderstorms indicated by the National Weather Service radar in Key West.  An upper level low east of Florida is contributing to easterly winds that are blowing across the northern side of the depression.  The vertical wind shear is inhibiting the development of thunderstorms north and west of the center.

The circulation of Tropical Depression Eight was more well organized earlier today.  Strong easterly winds from the same upper level low that is affecting Tropical Depression Nine are creating significant vertical wind shear.  Those winds and the shear they caused blew the upper portion of the depression’s circulation west of the low level center of circulation.  The low level circulation is presently exposed as seen on visible satellite imagery and by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft.

The intensity forecast for Tropical Depression Nine is challenging because it is moving through a complex environment.  The depression is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  So, there is plenty of energy in the upper ocean.  However, as mentioned above, an upper low is causing vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Depression Nine could move into a region where there is less shear when it moves over the Gulf of Mexico.  Tropical Depression Nine has a good chance to intensify into a tropical storm, but it is unclear if it could become a hurricane before it reaches the coast.

There is also significant uncertainty in the track forecast for Tropical Depression Nine.  A ridge over the southeastern U.S. is steering the depression toward the west and that general motion should continue for several more days.  The ridge is forecast to weaken during the middle of the week and that should allow Tropical Depression Nine to turn toward the north.  The timing of that turn and how sharp it will be are still uncertain.

The upper low is expected to continue to generate wind shear over Tropical Depression Eight.  If the upper levels winds remain as strong as they are now, the depression will slowly weaken.  If the upper level winds weaken, then Tropical Depression Eight could strengthen into a minimal tropical storm.  The upper level low is steering the depression west and that general motion is expected to continue in the short term.  The depression could stall just off the coast of North Carolina.

Tropical Depression Nine could intensify and bring wind and rain to the Gulf Coast later this week.  The Gulf Coast is also vulnerable to storm surges.  Given the uncertainty in both the track and intensity, interests along the coast should monitor official sources of information for updates on Tropical Depression Nine.  The primary effects of Tropical Depression Eight are likely to be higher than normal surf, rip currents and some beach erosion along the North Carolina coast.  People along the Mid-Atlantic coast should pay attention to the depression in case the forecast changes.