Tag Archives: Negril

Hurricane Melissa Nears Jamaica

The core of Hurricane Melissa was nearing southwestern Jamaica on Tuesday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Melissa was located at latitude 17.7°N and longitude 78.1°W which put the center about 45 miles (75 km) south-southeast of Negril, Jamaica.  Melissa was moving toward the north-northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 185 m.p.h. (300 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 220 m.p.h. (355 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 892 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Central Bahamas and the Southeastern Bahamas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Turks and Caicos.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Haiti.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban province of Las Tunas.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos.

Winds to tropical storm force were already occurring in Jamaica even though the core of Hurricane Melissa was still southwest of Jamaica.  A weather station at the Norman Manley International Airport in Kingston reported a sustained wind speed of 43 m.p.h. (69 km/h) and a wind gust of 59 m.p.h. (93 km/h).  A weather station at the Sangster International Airport in Montego Bay reported a sustained wind speed of 38 m.p.h. (61 km/h) and a wind gust of 54 m.p.h. (87 km/h).  Heavy rain was already falling over parts of Jamaica.

The core of dangerous Hurricane Melissa was nearing the coast of southwestern Jamaica on Tuesday morning.  A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Melissa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Melissa.  Storms near the center of Melissa generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass in the upper levels was nearly balanced by a strong inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The near balance of inflow and outflow of mass caused the surface pressure to remain nearly steady during the past few hours.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Hurricane Melissa.   Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) in the eastern half of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western side of Hurricane Melissa.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Melissa is 44.1.  The Hurricane Size index (HSI) is 11.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 55.5.  Hurricane Melissa is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dorian when Dorian hit the Bahamas in 2019.

Hurricane Melissa will move through an environment favorable for a very powerful hurricane during the few hours until it makes landfall in Jamaica.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Melissa is likely to maintain its intensity until it makes landfall in Jamaica unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.  If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then the formation of concentric eyewalls would cause Melissa to start to weaken.

An upper level trough over the southeastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Melissa toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the core of Hurricane Melissa will reach southwestern Jamaica on Tuesday morning.  Melissa will move northeast across Jamaica during much of Tuesday.  Hurricane Melissa will reach eastern Cuba early on Wednesday.

Hurricane Melissa will drop very heavy rain on Jamaica, Haiti and parts of the Dominican Republic.  Very heavy rain is likely to cause catastrophic floods in some locations.  Hurricane Melissa will also produce very strong winds in Jamaica.  Melissa will be capable of causing severe damage.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Infrastructure and transportation are likely to be severely damaged.  Melissa could produce a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along the south coast of Jamaica.

Hurricane Melissa will also bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Cuba, the Central and Southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Widespread electricity outages are also likely in eastern Cuba.

Tropical Storm Delta Develops South of Jamaica

Former Tropical Depression Twentysix strengthened into Tropical Storm Delta south of Jamaica on Monday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Delta was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 78.4°W which put it about 65 miles east of the Mouth of the Mississippi River and about 130 miles south of Negril, Jamaica.  Delta was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the Isle of Youth, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa, Cuba.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cayman Islands.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for La Habana, Cuba.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of former Tropical Depression Twentysix on Monday morning and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Delta.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Delta was still organizing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Delta.  The strongest rainbands were in the southern half of the circulation.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass allowed the pressure to decrease, which caused the wind speed to increase.

Tropical Storm Delta will move through an environment which will be very favorable for intensification.  Delta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30˚C.  It will move under an upper level ridge where the winds are weak.  There will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Delta will intensify and it could strengthen into a hurricane by Tuesday night.  Once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall develops, Delta could intensify rapidly.  There is a chance Tropical Storm Delta could strengthen into a major hurricane.

Tropical Storm Delta will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Delta toward the northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Delta could reach the Cayman Islands on Monday night.  Delta could be near the western end of Cuba by Tuesday night and it is likely to be a hurricane at that time.  Delta could approach the central Gulf Coast on Thursday night.  It could be a major hurricane when it approaches the Gulf Coast.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Gamma weakened as it meandered north of the Yucatan Peninsula.  Strong southerly winds in the upper levels blew the top off of Tropical Storm Gamma on Sunday night.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 87.5°W which put it about 165 miles (270 km) east-northeast of Progreso, Mexico.  Gamma was moving toward the south-southwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cancun to Dzilam, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coat from Dzilam to Campeche, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Nana Forms South of Jamaica

Tropical Storm Nana formed over the Caribbean Sea south of Jamaica on Tuesday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Nana was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 78.4°W which put it about 110 miles (175 km) south of Negril, Jamaica.  Nana was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the entire coast of Belize.  A Tropical Storm Watch was also issued for the north coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the border with Guatemala including Roatan Island and the Bay Islands.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight into a low pressure system south of Jamaica found a defined low level center of circulation and winds to tropical storm force on Tuesday.  Based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft the National Hurricane Center designated the system Tropical Storm Nana.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Nana was organizing quickly.  Thunderstorms were developing near the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center.  Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  The strongest winds were occurring in the northern half of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Nana.

Tropical Storm Nana will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Nana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29.5°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Nana will continue to intensify and it is likely to strengthen to a hurricane within 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Nana will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Nana toward the west during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Nana will pass north of Honduras on Wednesday.  Nana could reach Belize on Thursday and it is likely to be a hurricane by that time.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Depression Fifteen moved away from the East Coast of the U.S.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen was located at latitude 34.7°N and longitude 73.1°W which put it about 140 miles (225 km) east-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  The depression was moving toward the east-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.