Hurricane Melissa started to make a slow turn toward Jamaica on Monday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Melissa was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 78.5°W which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) southwest of Kingston, Jamaica. Melissa was moving toward the north-northeast at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 175 m.p.h. (285 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 205 m.p.h. (330 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 903 mb.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica.
Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.
Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Central Bahamas and the Southeastern Bahamas.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Turks and Caicos.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Haiti.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban province of Las Tunas.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos.
Powerful Hurricane Melissa started a slow turn toward Jamaica on Monday evening. A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Melissa’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Melissa. Storms near the center of Melissa generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane. The removal of large amounts of mass in the upper levels was nearly balanced by a strong inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere. The near balance of inflow and outflow of mass caused the surface pressure to remain nearly steady during the past few hours.
Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Melissa’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) in the eastern half of Hurricane Melissa. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western side of Melissa’s circulation.
The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Melissa is 40.4. The Hurricane Size index (HSI) is 11.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 51.8. Hurricane Melissa is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Andrew when Andrew was at its peak intensity in 1992.
Hurricane Melissa will move through an environment favorable for a very powerful hurricane during the next 12 hours. Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Melissa is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 12 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then the formation of concentric eyewalls would cause Melissa to weaken.
An upper level trough over the southeastern U.S. will start to steer Hurricane Melissa toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the core of Hurricane Melissa will reach southwestern Jamaica on Tuesday morning. Melissa will move northeast across Jamaica during much of Tuesday. Hurricane Melissa will reach eastern Cuba early on Wednesday.
Hurricane Melissa will drop very heavy rain on Jamaica, Haiti and parts of the Dominican Republic. Very heavy rain is likely to cause catastrophic floods in some locations. Hurricane Melissa will also produce very strong winds in Jamaica. Melissa will be capable of causing severe damage. Widespread electricity outages are likely. Infrastructure and transportation are likely to be severely affected. Melissa could produce a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along the south coast of Jamaica.
Hurricane Melissa will also bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Cuba, the Central and Southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Widespread electricity outages are also likely in eastern Cuba.