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Kristy Weakens to a Tropical Storm

Former Hurricane Kristy weakened to a tropical storm over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Baja California on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 129.2°W which put the center about 1245 miles (2005 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kristy was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Former Hurricane Kristy moved under the eastern side of an upper level trough east of Hawaii.  The upper level trough produced strong southwesterly winds that blew across the top of Kristy’s circulation.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear.  The wind shear blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Kristy, which caused Kristy to weaken rapidly.

The former eye of then Hurricane Kristy was still visible on satellite images.  However, the eye was surrounded by a ring of low clouds.  A few thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the northern side of Tropical Storm Kristy.  Most of the bands revolving around the center of Kristy’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Despite the strong vertical wind shear, the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Kristy was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Kristy’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Kristy will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kristy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  The upper level trough east of Hawaii will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Kristy will continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough east of Hawaii will steer Tropical Storm Kristy toward the northwest during the next 12 hours.  After the last thunderstorms in Kristy’s circulation dissipate, the tropical storm will be steered by the winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  A high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean will steer Kristy toward the west-southwest on Sunday.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Kristy will remain far from any land area.

Hurricane Kristy Weakens

Hurricane Kristy weakened over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Friday morning,  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Kristy was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 124.8°W which put the center about 1085 miles (1750 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kristy was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Hurricane Kristy weakened over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Friday morning after reaching Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday.  Clouds were developing inside the eye at the center of Kristy’s circulation.  The eye was still surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Kristy.  Storms near the core of Kristy’s circulation generated less upper level divergence than they did on Thursday.  The removal of less mass caused the surface pressure to increase.

The circulation around Hurricane Kristy continued to be small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Kristy’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hurricane Kristy.

Hurricane Kristy will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kristy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the southern end of an upper level trough east of Hawaii.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Kristy’s circulation.  Those upper level winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Kristy will continue to weaken during the next 24 hours because of the increased vertical wind shear.

Hurricane Kristy will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Kristy toward the northwest during the next 24 h.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Kristy will continue to remain far from any land mass.

Hurricane Kristy Intensifies to Cat. 5

Hurricane Kristy intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Kristy was located at latitude 14.2°N and longitude 121.6°W which put the center about 970 miles (1565 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kristy was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 926 mb.

Hurricane Kristy looked like a Category 5 hurricane on visible satellite images on Thursday afternoon.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Kristy’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Kristy.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large amounts of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Kristy was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Kristy’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hurricane Kristy.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Kristy was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 8.2.  Hurricane Kristy is smaller than Hurricane Milton was when Milton was over the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Kristy will move through an environment that will become less favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Kristy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move toward the southern end of an upper level trough between Hawaii and California.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will start to affect Hurricane Kristy on Friday.  Those upper level winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Kristy will start to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Hurricane Kristy will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Kristy toward the northwest during the next 24 h.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Kristy will continue to remain far from any land mass.

Kristy Rapidly Intensifies to a Major Hurricane South of Baja California

Hurricane Kristy rapidly intensified to a major hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Kristy was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 113.9°W which put the center about 650 miles (1045 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kristy was moving toward the west at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Hurricane Kristy continued to intensify rapidly on Wednesday morning.  A small circular eye was at the center of Kristy’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Kristy.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large amounts of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Kristy was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Kristy’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Hurricane Kristy.

Hurricane Kristy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Kristy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Kristy will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Kristy could continue to intensify rapidly. Hurricane Kristy could to strengthen to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday.

Hurricane Kristy will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will continue to steer Kristy toward the west during the next 24 h.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Kristy will continue to move farther away from Mexico.

Kristy Rapidly Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Kristy rapidly intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Kristy was located at latitude 14.7°N and longitude 108.5°W which put the center about 550 miles (890 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kristy was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Kristy rapidly intensified to a hurricane on Tuesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Kristy’s circulation.  A circular eye formed at the center of Hurricane Kristy.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Kristy’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Kristy generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Kristy became more symmetrical on Tuesday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Kristy’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Hurricane Kristy.

Hurricane Kristy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kristy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Kristy will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Kristy could continue to intensify rapidly.  Hurricane Kristy is likely to strengthen to a major hurricane on Wednesday.

Hurricane Kristy will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will continue to steer Kristy toward the west during the next 24 h.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Kristy will continue to move farther away from Mexico.

Tropical Storm Kristy Forms South of Mexico

Tropical Storm Kristy formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located at latitude 13.5°N and longitude 102.0°W which put the center about 275 miles (440 km) south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  Kristy was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico strengthened on Monday and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Kristy.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Kristy’s circulation.  Thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Kristy.  Storms near the center of Kristy began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Kristy was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northern side of Kristy’s circulation.  The winds in the southern part of Tropical Storm Kristy were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Kristy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kristy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Kristy will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Kristy is likely to strengthen to a hurricane by the middle of this week.

Tropical Storm Kristy will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Kristy toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Kristy will move away from the coast of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Kay Brings Rain to Southern California

Tropical Storm Kay brought rain to parts of southern California. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Kay was located at latitude 30.7°N and longitude 117.2°W which put it about 140 miles (225 km) south of San Diego, California. Kay was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia, Mexico to the border with the U.S. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahia De Los Angeles to Puerto Libertad, Mexico.

Rainbands in the northern side of Tropical Storm Kay dropped rain over parts of southern California. Heavy rain was also falling over parts of northwestern Mexico and there were reports of flash floods in that region. The center of Tropical Storm Kay was over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of San Diego. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Kay’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation. The strongest winds were occurring over the Eastern North Pacific and the Gulf of California. Strong wind gusts were also reported in mountains in northwestern Mexico and southern California.

Tropical Storm Kay will continue to weaken gradually. Kay will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 22˚C. As Tropical Storm Kay weakens, the clouds will not rise as high in the atmosphere and Kay will be steered by the winds closer to the surface. Those winds will steer Tropical Storm Kay toward the west during the next 36 hours. The rain over southern California will diminish during the weekend as Kay moves westward and weakens.

Hurricane Kay Hits Baja California

Hurricane Kay hit Baja California on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Kay was located at latitude 27.1°N and longitude 114.3°W which put it about 70 miles (110 km) southeast of Punte Eugenia, Mexico. Kay was moving toward the north-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Jose De Las Palomas, Mexico to the border with the U.S. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Puerto Cortes, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from San Evaristo to Guaymas, Mexico.

The center of Hurricane Kay made landfall on the west coast of Baja California southeast of Punta Eugenia on Thursday afternoon. Kay weakened slowly as it approached the west coast of Baja California. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Hurricane Kay. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 220 miles (350 km) from the center of Kay’s circulation. Bands in the eastern side of Hurricane Kay dropped heavy rain over parts of Baja California and there were reports of flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Kay will continue to move toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. The center of Hurricane Kay will be over land during the next few hours before it moves back over water when the center gets north of Punta Eugenia. Kay will weaken steadily during the next 24 hours. The eastern half of Kay’s circulation will be flowing over Baja California, where the mountains will disrupt the flow of air. Hurricane Kay will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 23˚C. Kay will continue to produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain over Baja California as it moves northwards.

Clouds in the rainbands will not rise as high into the atmosphere when Hurricane Kay weakens. Kay will be steered by winds closer to the surface on Friday. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will steer Kay more toward the northwest on Friday. On its anticipated track, the center of Kay will be southeast of San Diego, California on Friday night. Kay could be a tropical storm when it is southeast of San Diego. Bands in the eastern side of Kay could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern California and western Arizona. A High Wind Watch is in effect for parts of southern California. Flood Watches are in effect for parts of southern California and western Arizona.

Kay Causes Hurricane Watch for Baja California

A potential risk posed by Hurricane Kay caused the government of Mexico to issue a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the coast of Baja California. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Kay was located at latitude 18.8°N and longitude 111.0°W which put it about 290 miles (470 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Kay was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Cortes to Punta Eugenia, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Santa Rosalia, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning included Cabo San Lucas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Santa Rosalia to Bahia De Los Angeles, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia to San Jose De Las Palmas, Mexico.

Hurricane Kay strengthened slowly on Tuesday afternoon. An eye appeared intermittently at the center of Kay’s circulation. A partial ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye. The strongest storms were in the southeastern part of the ring and that was where the strongest winds were occurring. Most of the thunderstorms were in bands in the southern half of Hurricane Kay. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Kay’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Kay. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Kay will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Kay will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge centered over the Southwest U.S. The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Kay’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will slow the rate of intensification, but Hurricane Kay is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours. Kay will move closer to the axis of the ridge later on Wednesday. The upper level winds are weaker near the axis of the ridge and the wind shear will decrease. Hurricane Kay will intensify faster when the wind shear decreases. Kay could strengthen to a major hurricane, when the wind shear decreases.

Hurricane Kay will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Kay toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Kay will approach the west coast of Baja California south of Punta Eugenia on Thursday morning. Kay could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Baja California. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Kay Strengthens to a Hurricane Southwest of Mexico

Former Tropical Storm Kay strengthened to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Kay was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 107.3°W which put it about 305 miles (495 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Kay was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Loreto to Puerto San Andresito.

Former Tropical Storm Kay intensified rapidly to a hurricane on Monday afternoon. The inner end of a rainband wrapped completely the center of Kay’s circulation. An eye formed at the center of Hurricane Kay. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Kay’s circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Hurricane Kay. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Kay will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Kay will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Kay will intensify during the next 36 hours. Kay could strengthen to a major hurricane.

Hurricane Kay will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Kay toward the northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Kay will move parallel to the west coast of Mexico. Kay could approach Baja California on Wednesday.