Tag Archives: Tropical Storm Kiko

Tropical Storm Lorena Moves Toward Baja California

Tropical Storm Lorena moved toward Baja California on Thursday night after brushing the west coast of Mexico earlier in the day.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located at latitude 22.3°N and longitude 107.7°W which put it about 145 miles (235 km) east-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Lorena was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from La Paz to Puerto Cortes, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect from La Paz to San Evaristo, Mexico.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect from San Evaristo to Loreto and from Puerto Cortes to Puerto San Evaristo.

When the center of former Hurricane Lorena passed near the west coast of Mexico, the eastern part of the circulation passes over mountains.  The mountains disrupted the flow of air and some drier air was pulled into the hurricane.  The disruption and drier air weakened the inner core of the circulation and caused Lorena to weaken to a tropical storm.  The inner core was beginning to redevelop on Thursday evening.  More thunderstorms were forming near the center of circulation and other thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Friday.  Lorena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Lorena is likely to strengthen back into a hurricane on Friday.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move around the western part of a ridge of high pressure over Mexico.  The ridge will steer Lorena toward the northwest.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Lorena will interact with the circulation of Tropical Storm Mario which is southwest of Lorena.  It looked like Lorena was pulling Mario toward the northeast on Thursday night.  However, it is possible that Mario could tug Lorena more toward the west on Friday.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Lorena will approach the southern tip of Baja California on Friday afternoon.  Lorena is likely to be a hurricane at that time.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Mario was southwest of Lorena and Tropical Storm Kiko was between Baja California and Hawaii.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 110.2°W which put it about 265 miles (590 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Mario was moving toward the northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 129.6°W which put it about 1350 miles (2175 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kiko was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Lorena Strengthens to a Hurricane Near Manzanillo

Former Tropical Storm Lorena strengthened to a hurricane near Manzanillo, Mexico on Wednesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDY on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Lorena was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 104.7°W which put it 35 miles (55 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Lorena was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the coast from Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita, Mexico.

The circulation around Hurricane Lorena exhibited more organization on Wednesday night.  Some satellite images suggested that a small eye might be forming at the center of circulation.  Lorena was a small hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 90 miles (145 km) from the center.

Hurricane Lorena will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Lorena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are not too strong and there is not likely to be a lot of vertical wind shear.  However, the center of Hurricane Lorena will move very close to the coast of Mexico.  Small hurricanes often draw drier air over the land into their circulations when they move close to the west coast of Mexico.  If Hurricane Lorena draws in drier air, it will weaken even though the rest of the environment is favorable for intensification.  If the center of Lorena moves farther away from the coast, then the hurricane could strengthen.

Hurricane Lorena will move around the western side of a ridge over Mexico.  The ridge will steer Lorena toward the northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Lorena will pass very close to the west coast of Mexico on Thursday.  Hurricane Lorena could drop locally heavy rain and flash floods could occur.  If Hurricane Lorena doesn’t weaken near the coast, it could approach the southern tip of Baja California on Friday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storms Kiko and Mario strengthened on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located at latitude 15.8°N and longitude 127.8°W which put it about 1265 miles (2035 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kiko was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 112.2°W which put it about 540 miles 9870 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Mario was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Storm Kiko Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Kiko formed south of Baja California on Thursday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 112.2°W which put it about 495 miles (795 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kiko was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A distinct center of circulation developed in a cluster of thunderstorms south of Baja California on Thursday and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Kiko.  The circulation around Kiko was still organizing.  The center of circulation was evident on satellite imagery.  Band of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center.  Storms near the center of circulation were beginning to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Kiko will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  Kiko will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Kiko is likely to strengthen into a hurricane.  Kiko could intensify more rapidly once an eye and eyewall form in the inner core of the tropical storm.

Tropical Cyclone Kiko will move south of a subtropical ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Kiko toward the west-northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Kiko will move farther away from Baja California.