Tag Archives: Tropical Storm Mario

Tropical Storm Mario Weakens

Tropical Storm Mario weakened on Monday night as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Baja California.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located at latitude 21.9°N and longitude 115.7°W which put the center about 375 miles (605 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Mario was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Mario weakened on Monday night as it moved over cooler water west of Baja California.  Many of the thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Mario dissipated when Mario moved over the cooler water.  A few thunderstorms were still occurring near the center of Mario’s circulation.  Most of the bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Mario consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Since the storms near the center of Mario were not generating much upper level divergence, the surface pressure was increasing.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Mario was still small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Mario’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Mario will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Mario will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is near the west coast of the U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Mario’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and cooler Sea Surface Temperatures will cause Tropical Storm Mario to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Mario will move around the around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the southwest U.S. and northwest Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Mario toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Mario will move west of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Mario Strengthens

Tropical Storm Mario strengthened during Sunday night as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 112.3°W which put the center about 285 miles (460 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Mario was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Tropical Storm Mario strengthened during Sunday night.  The distribution of thunderstorms in Mario became more symmetrical.  Thunderstorms continued to develop near the center of Mario’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Mario.  Storms near the center of Mario generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Even though Tropical Storm Mario strengthened, the size of Mario’s circulation remained small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Mario.

Tropical Storm Mario will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Mario will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough  that is near the west coast of the U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Mario’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  The combination of more vertical wind shear and cooler Sea Surface Temperatures will cause Tropical Storm Mario to start to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Mario will move around the around the southern part of a high pressure system over the southwest U.S. and northwest Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Mario toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Mario will remain southwest of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Mario Re-develops South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Mario re-developed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Sunday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located at latitude 18.5°N and longitude 110.2°W which put the center about 305 miles (490 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Mario was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

After almost dissipating during Friday night, Tropical Storm Mario re-developed south of Baja California on Sunday morning.  A distinct low level center of circulation re-formed on Sunday morning.  More thunderstorms started to develop near the low level center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Mario.  Storms near the center of Mario began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Mario was still small.  Wind to tropical storm force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Mario’s circulation.  The winds in the other parts of Tropical Storm Mario were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Mario will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Mario will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of upper level ridge over the southwest U.S. and northwest Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Mario’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Mario is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Mario will move around the around the southern part of a high pressure system over the southwest U.S. and northwest Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Mario toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Mario will southwest of Baja California.

 

Tropical Storm Mario Forms Near Zihuatanejo

Tropical Storm Mario formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean near Zihuatanejo, Mexico on Friday morning.  The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located at latitude 17.2°N and longitude 101.9°W which put the center about 40 miles (65 km) south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.  Mario was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo, Mexico.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean near Zijuatanejo strengthened on Friday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Mario.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Mario exhibited more organization on Friday morning.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Mario’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in short bands that were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Mario.  Storms near the center of Mario generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Mario was very small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Mario’s circulation.  The winds in the other parts of Tropical Storm Mario were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Mario will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Mario will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of upper level ridge over Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Mario’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Mario could also pull drier air over Mexico in the tropical storm.  The moderate vertical wind shear and drier air will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Mario could intensify during the next 24 hours if the center remains over the ocean.

Tropical Storm Mario will move around the around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Mario toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Mario will move near the coast of Michoacan.

Tropical Storm Mario will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to coastal parts of Michoacan.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Lorena Near Cabo San Lucas

Hurricane Lorena moved near Cabo San Lucas, Mexico on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Lorena was located at latitude 23.2°N and longitude 109.3°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) northeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Lorena was nearly stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from La Paz to Puerto Cortes, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from La Paz to Santa Rosalia.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect from Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro and from La Paz to Santa Rosalia.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect from Topolobampo to Guaymas and from Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito.

The circulation around Hurricane Lorena strengthened quickly when it reached the very warm water at the southern end of the Gulf of Calfiornia.  A small circular eye developed at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the compact inner core of Hurricane Lorena.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The future intensity of Hurricane Lorena will depend entirely on its track.  If Hurricane Lorena moves over Baja California, it will weaken quickly when it moves over the mountains.  However, if the small circulation around Lorena remains over the very warm water in the Gulf of California, then the hurricane could strengthen further.  The numerical models have been trending toward keeping Hurricane Lorena over water for a longer period of time, but the center of the hurricane is very close to the southern end of Baja California.

Hurricane Lorena moved into a region where the steering currents are weak, which is why Lorena is nearly stationary.  The southern end of a trough over the western U.S. will try to steer Hurricane Lorena toward the north-northeast.  However, mountains in Baja California sometimes block westerly winds in the lower levels.  A slightly larger circulation around Tropical Storm Mario could pull Hurricane Lorena toward the west.  The future track of Hurricane Lorena is highly uncertain.  Hurricane Lorena could move over Baja California or it could move farther north into the Gulf of California.

The center of Tropical Storm Mario was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 110.0°W which put it about 340 miles (545 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Mario was moving toward the north at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.  The future of Tropical Storm Mario will depend on how much its circulation interacts with the circulation around Hurricane Lorena.  Mario is currently about 350 miles (565 km) south of Hurricane Lorena.

Tropical Storm Lorena Moves Toward Baja California

Tropical Storm Lorena moved toward Baja California on Thursday night after brushing the west coast of Mexico earlier in the day.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located at latitude 22.3°N and longitude 107.7°W which put it about 145 miles (235 km) east-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Lorena was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from La Paz to Puerto Cortes, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect from La Paz to San Evaristo, Mexico.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect from San Evaristo to Loreto and from Puerto Cortes to Puerto San Evaristo.

When the center of former Hurricane Lorena passed near the west coast of Mexico, the eastern part of the circulation passes over mountains.  The mountains disrupted the flow of air and some drier air was pulled into the hurricane.  The disruption and drier air weakened the inner core of the circulation and caused Lorena to weaken to a tropical storm.  The inner core was beginning to redevelop on Thursday evening.  More thunderstorms were forming near the center of circulation and other thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Friday.  Lorena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Lorena is likely to strengthen back into a hurricane on Friday.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move around the western part of a ridge of high pressure over Mexico.  The ridge will steer Lorena toward the northwest.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Lorena will interact with the circulation of Tropical Storm Mario which is southwest of Lorena.  It looked like Lorena was pulling Mario toward the northeast on Thursday night.  However, it is possible that Mario could tug Lorena more toward the west on Friday.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Lorena will approach the southern tip of Baja California on Friday afternoon.  Lorena is likely to be a hurricane at that time.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Mario was southwest of Lorena and Tropical Storm Kiko was between Baja California and Hawaii.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 110.2°W which put it about 265 miles (590 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Mario was moving toward the northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 129.6°W which put it about 1350 miles (2175 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kiko was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Lorena Strengthens to a Hurricane Near Manzanillo

Former Tropical Storm Lorena strengthened to a hurricane near Manzanillo, Mexico on Wednesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDY on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Lorena was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 104.7°W which put it 35 miles (55 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Lorena was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the coast from Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita, Mexico.

The circulation around Hurricane Lorena exhibited more organization on Wednesday night.  Some satellite images suggested that a small eye might be forming at the center of circulation.  Lorena was a small hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 90 miles (145 km) from the center.

Hurricane Lorena will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Lorena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are not too strong and there is not likely to be a lot of vertical wind shear.  However, the center of Hurricane Lorena will move very close to the coast of Mexico.  Small hurricanes often draw drier air over the land into their circulations when they move close to the west coast of Mexico.  If Hurricane Lorena draws in drier air, it will weaken even though the rest of the environment is favorable for intensification.  If the center of Lorena moves farther away from the coast, then the hurricane could strengthen.

Hurricane Lorena will move around the western side of a ridge over Mexico.  The ridge will steer Lorena toward the northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Lorena will pass very close to the west coast of Mexico on Thursday.  Hurricane Lorena could drop locally heavy rain and flash floods could occur.  If Hurricane Lorena doesn’t weaken near the coast, it could approach the southern tip of Baja California on Friday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storms Kiko and Mario strengthened on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located at latitude 15.8°N and longitude 127.8°W which put it about 1265 miles (2035 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kiko was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 112.2°W which put it about 540 miles 9870 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Mario was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.