Tag Archives: Manzanillo

Tropical Storm Vance Meanders Southwest of Mexico

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Tropical Storm Vance meandered slowly over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Vance was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 106.3°W which put the center about 275 miles (445 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Vance was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Storm Vance continued to weaken on Monday as it meandered southwest of Mexico.  An upper level trough over Baja California continued to produce southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Vance’s circulation.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear caused Vance to continue to weaken.

The strong vertical wind shear also continued to cause the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Vance to be asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern part of Vance’s circulation.  Bands in the western part of Tropical Storm Vance consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Vance generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure continued to increase on Monday.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Storm Vance decreased on Monday as Vance continued to weaken.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Vance’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Vance will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Vance slowly toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Vance will remain southwest of Mexico for the next several days.

Vance Weakens to a Tropical Storm

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Former Hurricane Vance weakened to a tropical storm on Sunday as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Vance was located at latitude 15.0°N and longitude 104.7°W which put the center about 275 miles (445 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Vance was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Former Hurricane Vance weakened to a tropical storm on Sunday.  An upper level trough over Baja California was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Vance’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear caused Vance to weaken to a tropical storm.

The strong vertical wind shear also caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Vance to become asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the northeastern part of Vance’s circulation.  Bands in the other parts of Tropical Storm Vance consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Vance generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Sunday.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Vance was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the northern side of Vance’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles in the southern side of Tropical Storm Vance.

Tropical Storm Vance will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Vance will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However, the upper level trough over Baja California will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Vance is likely to continue to weaken on Monday because of the strong vertical wind shear.

Tropical Storm Vance will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Vance slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Vance will remain southwest of Mexico for the next several days.

Vance Strengthens to a Hurricane

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Former Tropical Storm Vance strengthened to a hurricane as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Thursday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Vance was located at latitude 10.9°N and longitude 102.1°W which put the center about 580 miles (930 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Vance was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Vance strengthened to a hurricane on Thursday night.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Hurricane Vance.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Vance’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Vance.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Hurricane Vance.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the northern half of Vance’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of Hurricane Vance.

Hurricane Vance will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Vance will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Vance will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Vance could intensify rapidly at times.  Vance could strengthen to a major by the weekend.

Hurricane Vance will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over southern Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Vance toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Vance will gradually move closer to the west coast of Mexico.

Hurricane Trudy Moves Closer to Mexico

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Hurricane Trudy moved closer to the west coast of Mexico on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Trudy was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 105.0°W which put the center about 115 miles (185 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Trudy was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Punta San Telmo, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Corrientes to San Blas, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Las Islas Marias.

Hurricane Trudy appeared to go through an eyewall replacement cycle during the past 24 hours.

A circular eye with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) was at the center of Trudy’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Trudy’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Trudy generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So the surface pressure increased on Saturday.

The distribution of wind speeds in Hurricane Trudy was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Trudy’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Hurricane Trudy.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Trudy is 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 12.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 29.1.  Hurricane Trudy is similar in intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.  Trudy is larger than Isaias was.

Hurricane Trudy will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Trudy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is near Baja California.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Trudy’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Trudy could intensify on Sunday if the vertical wind shear does not increase too much.

Hurricane Trudy will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Trudy toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Trudy will approach the west coast of Mexico between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes.

The center of Hurricane Trudy is forecast to remain west of Mexico.  However, bands in the eastern side of Trudy’s circulation will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the west coast of Mexico between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Trudy Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

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Hurricane Trudy intensified to a major hurricane on Thursday night as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Trudy was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 102.5°W which put the center about 240 miles (385 km) southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  Trudy was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Zihuatanejo, Mexico.

Hurricane Trudy intensified to a major hurricane on Thursday night.

A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Hurricane Trudy.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Trudy’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Trudy generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Hurricane Trudy.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Trudy’ circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Trudy is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 20.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 42.4.  Hurricane Trudy is similar in intensity to Hurricane Milton when Milton hit Florida in 2024.  Trudy is not quite as large as Milton was.

Hurricane Trudy will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Trudy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Trudy will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Trudy will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Trudy toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Trudy will move closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Simon was weakening south of Baja California.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Simon was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 108.8°W which put the center about 210 miles (335 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Simon was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Hurricane Simon Stays Just West of Mexico

The core of Hurricane Simon stayed just to the west of the west coast of Mexico on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Simon was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 105.8°W which put the center about 55 miles (90 km) south of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.   Simon was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to El Roblito, Mexico.  The Hurricane Warning includes Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Las Islas Marias.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from El Roblito to Tempehuaya, Mexico.

Hurricane Simon was a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Sunday afternoon.

A circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was at the center of Hurricane Simon.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Simon’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Simon generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Sunday.

The circulation around Hurricane Simon was very small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Simon’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Hurricane Simon.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Simon is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 8.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 33.3. Hurricane Simon is similar in intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.  Simon is smaller than Harvey was.

Hurricane Simon will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Simon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Hurricane Simon is likely to pull some drier air that is over Mexico into its circulation because Simon will remain very close to Mexico.  The drier air will inhibit the formation of new thunderstorms in the eastern and northern parts of Simon’s circulation.  Hurricane Simon is likely to weaken on Monday because of the effects of the drier air.

Hurricane Simon will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Simon toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the core of Hurricane Simon will remain just to the west of Mexico on Monday.  The center of Simon’s circulation will pass just to the west of Cabo Corrientes on Sunday night.  The core of Hurricane Simon will be near Las Islas Marias on Monday afternoon.

Bands in the eastern side of Hurricane Simon will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the west coast of Mexico.  The strongest winds and heaviest rains will occur in Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

The core of Hurricane Simon will pass near Las Islas Marias on Monday afternoon.  Simon will bring strong winds and heavy rain to those islands.  Flash floods are likely to occur in some locations.  Hurricane Simon could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along parts of coast of Las Islas Marias.

Hurricane Simon Nears Western Mexico

Powerful Hurricane Simon was nearing the west coast of Mexico on Saturday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Simon was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 104.8°W which put the center about 100 miles (160 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.   Simon was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 932 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to El Roblito, Mexico.  The Hurricane Warning includes Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Las Islas Marias.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.

Hurricane Simon intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the existing eye and eyewall on Saturday.  Concentric eyewalls were at the center of Hurricane Simon.  The inner eyewall had a diameter of 14 miles (22 km).  The outer eyewall had a diameter of 40 miles (65 km).

Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Simon’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Simon generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Simon was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Simon’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Simon.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Simon is 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 8.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 40.1.  Hurricane Simon is bigger and stronger than Hurricane Charley was when Charley hit southwest Florida in 2004.

Hurricane Simon will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Simon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Simon could weaken during the next few hours if an eyewall replacement cycle occurs, even though Simon is in a favorable environment.

Hurricane Simon will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Simon toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Simon will be near Manzanillo on Sunday morning.

Hurricane Simon will be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Mexico.  Simon will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the west coast of Mexico.  The strongest winds and heaviest rains will occur in Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Simon could cause a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along parts of the west coast of Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Rachel was moving quickly toward northern Baja California.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located at latitude 27.0°N and longitude 118.3°W which put the center about 255 miles (415 km) southwest of Punta Baja, Mexico.  Rachel was moving toward the north-northeast at 30 m.p.h. (48 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia, Mexico to the Mexico/U.S. border.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Isla San Luis to Puerto Penasco, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the U.S./Mexico border to the San Diego County/Orange County line in California.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Isla San Luis to Bahia de Los Angeles, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Libertad to Puerto Penasco, Mexico.

Simon Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Simon intensified to a major hurricane as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Friday.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Simon was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 104.6°W which put the center about 155 miles (250 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico.   Simon was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, Mexico.  The Hurricane Warning includes Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Mita to El Roblito, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Las Islas Marias.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.

Hurricane Simon intensified to a major hurricane on Friday.

A very small eye formed at the center of Hurricane Simon.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Simon’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Simon generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Simon was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Simon’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Hurricane Simon.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Simon is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 6.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 28.2.

Hurricane Simon will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Simon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Simon will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Simon could intensify rapidly at times.  Hurricane Simon could strengthen to a Category 5 hurricane on Saturday.

Hurricane Simon will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Simon toward the north during the next 24 hours.  Hurricane Simon will approach the west coast of Mexico between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes on Saturday.

Hurricane Simon is likely to be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Mexico.  Simon will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the west coast of Mexico.  The strongest winds and heaviest rains will occur in Jalisco and Nayarit.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Simon could cause a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along parts of the west coast of Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Rachel started to move toward Baja California.  Tropical Storm Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for parts of southern California, the northern part of Baja California and northwestern Mexico.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located at latitude 23.8°N and longitude 123.3°W which put the center about 720 miles (1160 km) south-southwest of San Diego, California.  Rachel was moving toward the northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from San Jose de Las Palomas, Mexico to the Mexico/U.S. border.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Isla San Luis to Puerto Penasco, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the U.S./Mexico border to the San Diego County/Orange County line in California.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Isla San Luis to Bahia de Los Angeles, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Libertad to Puerto Penasco, Mexico.

Simon Strengthens to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Simon strengthened to a hurricane on Thursday evening as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Simon was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 104.6°W which put the center about 235 miles (380 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Simon was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm Simon strengthened to a hurricane on Friday evening.

Tall thunderstorms formed near the center of Hurricane Simon.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Simon’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Simon generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Simon was small.  The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of Simon’s circulation.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles in the northeastern quadrant of Simon.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Simon.

Hurricane Simon will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Simon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Simon will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Simon could intensify rapidly at times.  Hurricane Simon could strengthen to a major hurricane on Friday.

Hurricane Simon will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Simon toward the north during the next 24 hours. Hurricane Simon will approach the west coast of Mexico on Saturday.

Hurricane Simon is likely to be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Mexico.  Simon will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the west coast of Mexico.  The strongest winds and heaviest rains will occur in Jalisco and Nayarit.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Simon could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along parts of the west coast of Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Rachel continued to weaken gradually west of Baja California.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 125.5°W which put the center about 995 miles (1600 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Rachel was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Hurricane Polo Brings Wind and Rain to Baja California

Hurricane Polo brought wind and rain to the southern part of Baja California on Monday night.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 25.9°N and longitude 112.5°W which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) north of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the northeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (215 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the west coast of Baja California from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe, Mexico.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the east coast of Baja California from  Loreto to Bahia San Juan Bautista, Mexico.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia to Punta Abreojos, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from ; Loreto to San Evaristo, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Huatabampito to Topolobampo, Mexico.

Hurricane Polo was still a major hurricane on Monday night.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.

he Hurricane Intensify Index (HII) for Hurricane Polo is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 13.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 33.9.  Hurricane Polo is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

An upper level trough over the western U.S. will steer Hurricane Polo toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipate track, the center of Hurricane Polo will move across the southern part of Baja California during the next few hours.  The center of Polo’s circulation could pass between Loreto and Santa Rosalia.

Hurricane Polo will bring strong winds and heavy rain to southern Baja California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Polo will be capable of causing major damage.

Hurricane Polo will weaken as it moves across the southern part of Baja California.  However, Polo could still be a hurricane when it reaches the west coast of Mexico.  The center of Hurricane Polo will make a landfall on the west coast of Mexico near Guaymas early on Tuesday.

Hurricane Polo will also bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Sonora.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations there as well.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Rachel was strengthening gradually.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 102.5°W which put the center about 345 miles (555 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.   Rachel was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa, Perula, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.