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Tropical Storm Emilia Absorbs Fabio

The circulation around Tropical Storm Emilia absorbed the circulation of former Tropical Storm Fabio on Wednesday afternoon.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 117.7°W which put the center about 565 miles (910 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Emilia was moving toward the northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of former Tropical Storm Fabio was located at latitude 18.4°N and longitude 120.2°W which put the center about 735 miles (1180 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Fabio was moving toward the southwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The larger circulation around Tropical Storm Emilia absorbed the smaller circulation around Tropical Storm Fabio on Wednesday.

The absorption of Fabio’s circulation did disrupt the circulation around Tropical Storm Emilia, especially on the western side of its circulation.  Bands in the northern and western parts of Tropical Storm Emilia consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern and eastern parts of Emilia’s circulation.  The interactions of the two circulations also inhibited upper level divergence to the north and west of Tropical Storm Emilia.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Emilia.

Tropical Storm Emilia will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Emilia will move move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Emilia will weaken when it moves over cooler water on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Emilia will move around the southern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Emilia toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Emilia will move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Storms Emilia and Fabio Interact

The circulations around Tropical Storms Emilia and Fabio were interacting on Tuesday afternoon.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 115.3°W which put the center about 685 miles (1110 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Emilia was moving toward the northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Fabio was located at latitude 19.2°N and longitude 113.9°W which put the center about 625 miles (1010 km) west of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Fabio was moving toward the west-northwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulations around Tropical Storm Emilia and Fabio were interacting on Tuesday afternoon.  Winds blowing around the southern side of Fabio’s circulation were interacting with winds that were blowing around the northern side of Tropical Storm Emilia.  The interactions were occurring in both the upper and lower troposphere.  The interactions were affecting the structures of both tropical storms.

Tropical Storm Emilia appeared to be the larger and more powerful of the two tropical storms.  Even so, the flow around the southern side of Fabio was having an effect on Emilia’s structure.  Most of the thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Emilia were occurring in bands in the southern half of Emilia’s circulation.  Bands in the northern side of Emilia consisted primarily of showers and low clouds.  Outflow from Tropical Storm Fabio was inhibiting upper level divergence to the north of Tropical Storm Emilia.

The interactions between the two tropical storms was also affecting the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Emilia.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) in the southern half of Emilia’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northern side of Emilia.

The interaction with Tropical Storm Emilia appeared to be contributing to the start of a weakening trend in Tropical Storm Fabio.  The interaction with Emilia was also affecting the structure of Tropical Storm Fabio.  Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Fabio’s circulation.  Bands in the western part of Tropical Storm Fabio consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Outflow from Tropical Storm Emilia was inhibiting upper level divergence to the south and west of Tropical Storm Fabio,

The interactions between the two tropical storms was also affecting the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Fabio.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the eastern side of Fabio’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the eastern half of Fabio.

It is possible that the larger circulation around Tropical Storm Emilia could absorb the smaller circulation of Tropical Storm Fabio.  The circulation around Fabio will continue to disrupt part of the circulation in the northern part of Tropical Storm Emilia.  Emilia may not intensify much during the interactions between the two storms.

Tropical Storm Emilia will move through an environment that is otherwise favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Emilia will move move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.   It will move under an axis of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge.  There will be little vertical wind shear except for the shear caused by the outflow from Tropical Storm Fabio.  Tropical Storm Emilia is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.  Emilia could strengthen to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Emilia will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The interaction with Tropical Storm Fabio is likely to pull Emilia toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Emilia will move farther away from Baja California.  Emilia is likely to be steered toward the west-northwest by the high pressure system after it absorbs Tropical Storm Fabio.

Tropical Storm Fabio Forms Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Storm Fabio formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Monday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Fabio was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 106.9°W which put the center about 335 miles (540 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Fabio was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico strengthened on Monday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Fabio.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Fabio’s circulation.  However, the distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Storm Fabio was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern and western parts of Fabio’s circulation.  Bands in the northern and eastern parts of Tropical Storm Fabio consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Fabio generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles in the southeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Fabio.  The winds in the other parts of Fabio’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fabio will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fabio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.   It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fabio’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear may not be enough to prevent intensification. The circulation around Fabio could interact with the circulation around Tropical Storm Emilia.  Tropical Storm Fabio could intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Fabio is currently being steered by the circulation around Tropical Storm Emilia.  Fabio is forecast to be steered toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Fabio will move farther away from Mexico.  There is a chance that the circulations around Fabio and Tropical Storm Emilia could merge into a single circulation.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storms Carlotta, Daniel and Emilia were spinning over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 127.2°W which put the center about 1125 miles (1805 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Carlotta was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 127.7°W which put the center about 1265 miles (2035 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Daniel was moving toward the northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 114.1°W which put the center about 640 miles (1035 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Emilia was moving toward the south-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

 

 

Carlotta Weakens to a Tropical Storm

Former Hurricane Carlotta weakened to a tropical storm over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Baja California on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located at latitude 19.9°N and longitude 125.0°W which put the center about 990 miles (1595 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Carlotta was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Former Hurricane Carlotta weakened to a tropical storm on Sunday when it moved over cooler water in the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Baja California.  Many of the thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Carlotta weakened or dissipated on Sunday.  Even though the circulation around Carlotta weakened, it still appeared well organized in visible satellite images.  Numerous bands of showers, and low and middle clouds were revolving around the center of Carlotta’s circulation.  However, the showers near the center of Carlotta were too shallow to generate upper level divergence that could pump mass away from the tropical storm.  Thus, convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere caused the surface pressure to increase.

Tropical Storm Carlotta will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Carlotta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  It will move near the axis of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Carlotta is likely to continue to weaken slowly as it moves over the cool water.

Tropical Storm Carlotta will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Carlotta toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Carlotta will move farther away from Baja California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Daniel meandered west of Tropical Storm Carlotta and Tropical Depression Five-E formed south of Baja California.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was located at latitude 13.4°N and longitude 129.9°W which put the center about 1465 miles (2355 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Daniel was moving toward the northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Five-E was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 113.2°W which put the center about 555 miles (890 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  The tropical depression was moving toward the south at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Hurricane Dora Moves Across the International Date Line

Hurricane Dora moved across the International Date Line on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Dora was located at latitude 15.9°N and longitude 179.4°E which put it about 860 miles (1390 km) south of Midway Island. Dora was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Hurricane Dora was weakening as it moved across the International Date Line on Friday night. Dora was moving under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Central Pacific Ocean. The ridge was producing southerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Dora’s circulation. Those winds were causing the vertical wind shear to increase and the wind shear was causing Hurricane Dora to weaken.

There still was a small eye at the center of Hurricane Dora. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Dora’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Dora was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Dora. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 24.8.

Hurricane Dora will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Dora will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level ridge will continue to cause moderate to strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear will cause Hurricane Dora to weaken during the next 24 hours. Dora could weaken quickly even though it is over warm water, because it is such a small hurricane.

Hurricane Dora will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the Central Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Dora toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Dora could be east of Wake Island in 48 hours.

Hurricane Dora Passes South of Johnston Island

Hurricane Dora passed south of Johnston Island early on Thursday. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Dora was located at latitude 12.1°N and longitude 169.8°W which put it about 320 miles (510 km) south of Johnston Island. Dora was moving toward the west at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

The structure of Hurricane Dora showed signs of changing early on Thursday. The eye at the center of Dora’s circulation got smaller and the eye was more difficult to see on infrared satellite images. Several new bands of thunderstorms developed in the eastern and northern parts of Hurricane Dora. Dora was still a powerful hurricane. Storms near the center of Dora generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Dora increased a little as its structure began to change. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Dora’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.2. Hurricane Dora was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Charley when Charley hits southwest Florida in 2004.

Hurricane Dora will move through an environment that will be favorable for a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Dora will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Dora could be starting an eyewall replacement cycle. If an eyewall replacement cycle is beginning, then Dora is likely to weaken during the next 24 hours, even though the hurricane will be in a favorable environment. Since the circulation around Hurricane Dora is so small, any changes in the environment will have large effects on the intensity of Dora.

Hurricane Dora will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Dora toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Dora will be move west of the International Date Line on Friday.

Hurricane Dora Passes South of Hawaii

Hurricane Dora passed south of Hawaii on Tuesday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Dora was located at latitude 11.4°N and longitude 160.1°W which put it about 700 miles (1125 km) south-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii. Dora was moving toward the west at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 953 mb.

Hurricane Dora changed very little on Tuesday. The structure of Dora continued to be very symmetrical. An eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was still at the center of Hurricane Dora. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Dora’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Dora did not change much on Tuesday either. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Dora’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.0.

Hurricane Dora will move through an environment that will be favorable for a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Dora will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Dora has been in equilibrium with its environment during the past 24 hours. The intensity of Dora may not change much during the next 24 hours. Since the circulation around Hurricane Dora is so small, any changes in the environment will have large effects on the intensity of Dora.

Hurricane Dora will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Dora toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Dora will be near Johnston Island on Thursday.

Hurricane Dora Moves Southeast of Hawaii

Hurricane Dora moved southeast of Hawaii on Monday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Dora was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 152.3°W which put it about 565 miles (905 km) south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Dora was moving toward the west at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 953 mb.

Hurricane Dora weakened slightly on Monday. The structure of Dora continued to be very symmetrical. An eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Hurricane Dora. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Dora’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Dora increased a little on Monday. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Dora’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.0.

Hurricane Dora will move through an environment that will be favorable for a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Dora will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26.5°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Dora could move into a region where the air is a little drier. Since the circulation around Hurricane Dora is so small, any changes in the environment will have large effects on the intensity of Dora. Hurricane Dora could weaken a little more during the next 24 hours because of the drier air.

Hurricane Dora will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Dora toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Dora will pass south of Hawaii on Tuesday.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Eugene weakened west of Baja California on Monday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Eugene was located at latitude 25.1°N and longitude 120.4°W which put it about 680 miles (1095 km) west-northwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Eugene was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Hurricane Dora Moves over the Central Pacific

Hurricane Dora moved over the Central Pacific Ocean on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Dora was located at latitude 12.7°N and longitude 144.0°W which put it about 890 miles (1430 km) east-southeast of the South Point, Hawaii. Dora was moving toward the west at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

Hurricane Dora did not change much on Sunday. The structure of Dora continued to be very symmetrical and it had a a shape sometimes called an annular hurricane. An eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Hurricane Dora. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Short bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Dora’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Dora was still very small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Dora’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was only 7.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.36. Hurricane Dora was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Charley when Charley hit southwest Florida in 2004.

Hurricane Dora will move through an environment that will be favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours. Dora will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26.5C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Dora could move into a region where the air is a little drier. The intensity of an annual hurricane usually remains relatively constant. However, since the circulation around Hurricane Dora is so small, any changes in the environment will have large effects on the intensity of Dora. Hurricane Dora could weaken a little during the next 24 hours, if it moves into a region where the air is a little drier.

Hurricane Dora will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Dora toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Dora will pass south of Hawaii on Tuesday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Eugene moved south of Baja California on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Eugene was located at latitude 23.3°N and longitude 115.0°W which put it about 325 miles (525 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California. Eugene was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb. Tropical Storm Eugene will weaken on Monday as it moves over cooler water west of Baja California.

Hurricane Dora Strengthens Back to Cat. 4

Hurricane Dora strengthened back to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Dora was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 136.5°W which put it about 1335 miles (2145 km) east-southeast of the South Point, Hawaii. Dora was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (280 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 942 mb.

Hurricane Dora strengthened back to a Category 4 hurricane on its way toward the Central Pacific. The structure of Dora was very symmetrical and it had a a shape sometimes called an annular hurricane. An eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Hurricane Dora. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Short bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Dora’s circulation, Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Dora was still very small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Dora’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 29.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was only 6.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.6. Hurricane Dora was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Charley when Charley hit southwest Florida in 2004.

Hurricane Dora will move through an environment that will be favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours. Dora will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26.5C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. The intensity of an annual hurricane usually remains relatively constant. However, since the circulation around Hurricane Dora is so small, any changes in the environment will have large effects on the intensity of Dora. The intensity of Hurricane Dora is forecast to remain relatively constant during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Dora will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Dora toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Dora will move over the Central Pacific Ocean on Sunday. Dora will pass south of Hawaii early next week.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Eugene formed west of Mexico. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Eugene was located at latitude 20.8°N and longitude 108.8°W which put it about 210 miles (340 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. Eugene was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb. Tropical Storm Eugene will pass south of the southern end of Baja California on Sunday/.