Tag Archives: Daniel

Tropical Storm Fabio Forms Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Storm Fabio formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Monday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Fabio was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 106.9°W which put the center about 335 miles (540 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Fabio was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico strengthened on Monday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Fabio.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Fabio’s circulation.  However, the distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Storm Fabio was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern and western parts of Fabio’s circulation.  Bands in the northern and eastern parts of Tropical Storm Fabio consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Fabio generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles in the southeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Fabio.  The winds in the other parts of Fabio’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fabio will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fabio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.   It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fabio’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear may not be enough to prevent intensification. The circulation around Fabio could interact with the circulation around Tropical Storm Emilia.  Tropical Storm Fabio could intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Fabio is currently being steered by the circulation around Tropical Storm Emilia.  Fabio is forecast to be steered toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Fabio will move farther away from Mexico.  There is a chance that the circulations around Fabio and Tropical Storm Emilia could merge into a single circulation.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storms Carlotta, Daniel and Emilia were spinning over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 127.2°W which put the center about 1125 miles (1805 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Carlotta was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 127.7°W which put the center about 1265 miles (2035 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Daniel was moving toward the northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 114.1°W which put the center about 640 miles (1035 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Emilia was moving toward the south-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

 

 

Carlotta Weakens to a Tropical Storm

Former Hurricane Carlotta weakened to a tropical storm over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Baja California on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located at latitude 19.9°N and longitude 125.0°W which put the center about 990 miles (1595 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Carlotta was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Former Hurricane Carlotta weakened to a tropical storm on Sunday when it moved over cooler water in the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Baja California.  Many of the thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Carlotta weakened or dissipated on Sunday.  Even though the circulation around Carlotta weakened, it still appeared well organized in visible satellite images.  Numerous bands of showers, and low and middle clouds were revolving around the center of Carlotta’s circulation.  However, the showers near the center of Carlotta were too shallow to generate upper level divergence that could pump mass away from the tropical storm.  Thus, convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere caused the surface pressure to increase.

Tropical Storm Carlotta will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Carlotta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  It will move near the axis of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Carlotta is likely to continue to weaken slowly as it moves over the cool water.

Tropical Storm Carlotta will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Carlotta toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Carlotta will move farther away from Baja California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Daniel meandered west of Tropical Storm Carlotta and Tropical Depression Five-E formed south of Baja California.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was located at latitude 13.4°N and longitude 129.9°W which put the center about 1465 miles (2355 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Daniel was moving toward the northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Five-E was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 113.2°W which put the center about 555 miles (890 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  The tropical depression was moving toward the south at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Hurricane Carlotta Churns West

Hurricane Carlotta churned toward the west over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Carlotta was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 121.9°W which put the center about 810 miles (1300 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Carlotta was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Hurricane Carlotta started to weaken slowly on Saturday night when it moved over cooler water.  Thunderstorms in Hurricane Carlotta did not rise as high into the atmosphere.  Even though Carlotta started to weaken, its circulation was well organized.  A small circular eye was still present at the center of Hurricane Carlotta.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Carlotta’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Carlotta still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Carlotta was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Carlotta’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Carlotta.

Hurricane Carlotta will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Carlotta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  It will move near the axis of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Carlotta is likely to continue to weaken slowly as it moves over even cooler water.

Hurricane Carlotta will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Carlotta toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Carlotta will move farther away from Baja California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Daniel formed west of Hurricane Carlotta.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 130.5°W which put the center about 1540 miles (2475 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Daniel was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Daniel Develops Southwest of Baja California

Tropical Storm Daniel developed southwest of Baja California on Sunday after a relatively quiet week in the tropics.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 115.9°W which put it about 615 miles (990 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Daniel was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Microwave satellite data indicated that a better organized center of circulation was present inside former Tropical Depression Five-E and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Daniel on Sunday morning.  A band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the south and east sides of a small tight center of circulation.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center.  Bands northwest of the center of circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Daniel will move through an environment favorable for intensification for about another 24 hours.  Daniel is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  Tropical Storm Daniel will move over cooler water in about a day or so.  There is an upper level low northwest of Daniel.  The low is generating southerly winds which are blowing toward the top of the tropical storm.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Daniel could intensify a little more during the next 24 hours, but Daniel is likely to weaken when it moves over cooler water.

The upper low northwest of Tropical Storm Daniel was steering the tropical storm toward the north.  The upper low is moving toward the west.  Tropical Storm Daniel if forecast to turn more toward the northwest on Monday as it moves around the western side of the upper low.  When Daniel moves over cooler water the clouds will not grow as tall and the tropical storm will be steered by the winds lower in the atmosphere.  The subtropical high over the Pacific Ocean is forecast to steer Daniel more toward the west later next week after the tropical storm weakens.