Tag Archives: Baja Califonia

Hurricane Carlotta Churns West

Hurricane Carlotta churned toward the west over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Carlotta was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 121.9°W which put the center about 810 miles (1300 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Carlotta was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Hurricane Carlotta started to weaken slowly on Saturday night when it moved over cooler water.  Thunderstorms in Hurricane Carlotta did not rise as high into the atmosphere.  Even though Carlotta started to weaken, its circulation was well organized.  A small circular eye was still present at the center of Hurricane Carlotta.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Carlotta’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Carlotta still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Carlotta was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Carlotta’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Carlotta.

Hurricane Carlotta will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Carlotta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  It will move near the axis of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Carlotta is likely to continue to weaken slowly as it moves over even cooler water.

Hurricane Carlotta will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Carlotta toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Carlotta will move farther away from Baja California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Daniel formed west of Hurricane Carlotta.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 130.5°W which put the center about 1540 miles (2475 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Daniel was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Fausto Develops Southwest of Baja California

Tropical Storm Fausto developed southwest of Baja California on Sunday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Fausto was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 119.6°W which put it about 640 miles (1020 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Fausto was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of former Tropical Depression Eleven-E on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Fausto.  The distribution of thunderstorms around Fausto was asymmetrical.  Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern half of the circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in those bands of thunderstorms.  Bands in the southern half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) in the northern half of the circulation.  The wind in the southern half of the circulation was blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fausto will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification.  Fausto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 25°C.  An upper level trough west of Tropical Storm Fausto will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause vertical wind shear which will also inhibit potential intensification.  Tropical Storm Faust is likely to weaken slowly when it moves over cooler water.

Tropical Storm Fausto will move south of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Fausto toward the west during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fausto will move away from Baja California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Twelve-E spun up quickly south of Mexico and Tropical Depression Ten-E stalled between Mexico and Hawaii.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E was located at latitude 11.3°N and longitude 97.3°W which put it about 525 miles (850 km) southeast of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.  The depression was moving toward the north-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.  Tropical Depression Twelve-E is forecast to intensify quickly and it could strengthen into a major hurricane during the next several days.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 134.0°W which put it about 1700 miles (2735 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  The depression was moving toward the north-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.