Tag Archives: 04E

Tropical Storm Darby Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Darby formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Saturday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Darby was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 114.9°W which put it about 680 miles (1090 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Darby was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A well defined low pressure system formed in a tropical wave located south of Baja California on Saturday and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Darby. A small, well defined center of circulation was evident on visible and infrared satellite images. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Darby. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Darby will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Darby will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Darby will intensify during the 48 hours and it could strengthen to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Darby will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Darby toward the west during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Darby will move farther away from Baja California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, the National Hurricane Center designated former Tropical Storm Bonnie as a Post Tropical Cyclone. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of former Tropical Storm Bonnie was located at latitude 19.5°N and longitude 129.4°W which put it about 1275 miles (2055 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California. Bonnie was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

Tropical Storm Dolores Drops Heavy Rain over Western Mexico

Tropical Storm Dolores dropped heavy rain over western Mexico on Saturday. Dolores weakened to a tropical depression on Saturday evening when the center moved inland. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Dolores was located at latitude 21.3°N and longitude 104.2°W which put it about 80 miles (130 km) northeast of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. Dolores was moving toward the north-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Tropical Storm Dolores made landfall on the coast of Mexico southeast of Manzanillo on Saturday afternoon. The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) at the time of landfall. Dolores moved steadily toward the north-northwest after it made landfall. The lower part of the circulation around Tropical Storm Dolores weakened quickly when it moved inland over the mountains in west central Mexico. Even though it was weakening, rising motion in portions of the circulation around Dolores was enhanced in places where the air moved up the sides of mountains. Tropical Storm Dolores dropped heavy rain over parts of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit.

Tropical Storm Dolores Strengthens Near Mexico

Tropical Storm Dolores strengthened near the west coast of Mexico on Saturday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 103.4°W which put it about 95 miles (155 km) southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. Dolores was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa, Mexico.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Dolores exhibited much more organization on Saturday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western, southern and eastern sides of the center of circulation. An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Dolores. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The circulation around Tropical Storm Dolores was relatively small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the northern half of the circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the southern half of Dolores.

Tropical Storm Dolores will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Dolores will move over an area where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over southern Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak in that portion of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Dolores could strengthen to a hurricane before it makes landfall.

Tropical Storm Dolores will move around the western end of a small high pressure system over southern Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Dolores toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Dolores could make landfall on the coast of Mexico east of Manzanillo in a few hours. Dolores could be a hurricane when it makes landfall. Tropical Storm Dolores will bring gusty winds to the region near and to the east of Manzanillo. It could cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) in some locations on the coast. Bands on the northern side of Tropical Storm Dolores could drop heavy rain on parts of western Guerrero, Colima and Jalisco. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Dolores Forms South of Mexico, Warning Issued

Tropical Storm Dolores formed south of Mexico on Friday morning and the government of Mexico issued warnings and watches for portions of the coast. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located at latitude 14.7°N and longitude 102.5°W which put it about 320 miles (515 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. Dolores was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa, Mexico.

The circulation around a low pressure system south of Mexico strengthened on Friday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Dolores. Dolores exhibited increasing organization on conventional and microwave satellite imagery. Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Dolores.

Tropical Storm Dolores will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Dolores will move over an area where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over southern Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Dolores. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Dolores will intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Dolores will move around the western end of a small high pressure system over southern Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Dolores toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Dolores could approach the coast of Mexico between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes on Saturday. Dolores could be a hurricane when it approaches the coast. Bands on the northern side of Tropical Storm Dolores could drop heavy rain on parts of Colima and Jalisco. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Depression Four-E Forms Southwest of Baja California

Tropical Depression Four-E formed just southwest of Baja California on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located at latitude 20.5°N and longitude 112.6°W which put it about 240 miles (385 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  The depression was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system southwest of Baja California exhibited more organization on Monday night and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Four-E.  The distribution of thunderstorms around the depression was asymmetrical.  A band of stronger thunderstorms wrapped around the northern side of the center of circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in that band of storms.  Bands in other parts of the depression consisted of primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Depression Four-E will move into an environment mostly unfavorable for intensification.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 24.5°C.  An upper level trough over the western U.S. and an upper level ridge over Mexico will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the depression.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The colder water and moderate shear will prevent the potential for significant intensification.  The depression could maintain its intensity during the next six to twelve hours but it is likely to weaken later on Tuesday.

Tropical Depression Four-E will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure over Mexico.  The ridge will steer the depression slowly toward the northwest.   On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Four-E will pass west of Baja California.

Stronger Tropical Storm Carlotta Nears Acapulco

A stronger Tropical Storm Carlotta moved near Acapulco, Mexico on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 99.9°W which put it 20 miles (35 km) south of Acapulco.  Carlotta was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Maldonado to Tecpan de Galeana.

The center of Tropical Storm Carlotta remained over water on Saturday and the circulation strengthened.  A small eye formed at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms in the core were generating upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The future intensity of Tropical Storm Carlotta will depend on whether or not the center remains over water.  The Sea Surface Temperature of the water south of Mexico is near 30°C.  Carlotta will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak.  If the center of Carlotta remains over water, then it could intensify more on Sunday.  However, if the center moves inland, then Tropical Storm Carlotta will weaken quickly when the circulation is disrupted by the Sierra Madre del Sur mountains.

Tropical Storm Carlotta moved near the western end of a ridge over Mexico.  The ridge steered Carlotta slowly toward the northwest on Saturday and that general motion is forecast to continue on Sunday.  On its forecast track the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta will move almost parallel to the coast of Mexico west of Acapulco.  A small deviation to the left of the anticipated track will keep the center over water.  A small deviation to the right of the anticipated track will bring Tropical Storm Carlotta inland.  Carlotta will cause gusty winds near the coast.  Heavy rain will fall north of the center and over the south slopes of the Sierra Madre del Sur Mountains.  Flash floods are likely because of the slow movement of Tropical Storm Carlotta.

TD 4E Strengthens to Tropical Storm Carlotta

Tropical Depression Four-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Carlotta south of Mexico on Friday afternoon.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 99.4°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.  Carlotta was moving toward the northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Lagunas de Chacahua, Mexico.

A single, distinct center of circulation developed in Tropical Depression Four-E on Friday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Carlotta.  It is possible that the mountains in Mexico deflected the circulation in the lower levels and contributed to the improved organization of Tropical Storm Carlotta.  Stronger thunderstorms were forming near the center of circulation.  A primary band of showers and thunderstorms developed east and south of the core of Carlotta.  Other rainbands were revolving around the core of the tropical storm.  Storms in the core were generating upper level divergence and Carlotta looked like a tropical storm on satellite images.

Tropical Storm Carlotta will remain in an environment favorable for intensification while the center is over water.  The Sea Surface Temperature of the water south of Mexico is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak in that area and there is little vertical wind shear.  Carlotta could strengthen further during the next 12 hours.  When the center nears the coast of Mexico, the circulation could begin to pull in drier air from over the land.  If that happens, then Tropical Storm Carlotta could start to weaken even before the center officially makes landfall.

The steering winds are weak around Tropical Storm Carlotta.  A trough in the lower levels is moving across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and it appears to be pulling Carlotta slowly toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta will reach the coast of Mexico in 12 to 18 hours.  Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to make landfall east of Acapulco.  Carlotta will produce some gusty winds but the greater risks are heavy rain and flash floods.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Bud is moving over the Gulf of California.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Bud was located at latitude 25.3°N and longitude 110.0°W which put it about 70 miles (110 km) west of Los Mochis, Mexico.  Bud was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.  Bud could drop heavy rain and cause flash floods in the states of Sinaloa, Sonora and Chihuahua.

Tropical Storm Bud Brings Wind & Rain to Baja California, New Depression Forms South of Acapulco

Tropical Storm Bud brought wind and rain to the southern part of Baja Calfornia on Tuesday while a new tropical depression formed south of Acapulco, Mexico.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located at latitude 22.2°N and longitude 109.8°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Bud was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning remained in effect for the portion of the coast from Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico including Cabo San Lucas.  The government of Mexico issued new Tropical Storm Watches for the portions of the coast from La Paz to San Evaristo and from Altata to Huatabampito, Mexico.

Rainbands on the northern side of the circulation of Tropical Storm Bud were producing winds to tropical storm force over the southern end of Baja California.  New thunderstorms began to form when a band north and east of the center of circulation moved over the southern part of the Gulf of California.  The Sea Surface Temperature of the water in the Gulf is near 27°C which is warmer than the water of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California.  The additional energy from the ocean may have contributed to the formation of the new storms.

A trough in the upper levels is forecast to steer Tropical Storm Bud toward the north-northeast during the next several days,  Bud could maintain its intensity for another 24 hours if the center of circulation passes southeast of Baja California.  If the center passes over Baja, the mountains would disrupt the circulation in the lower levels and Tropical Storm Bud would weaken.  In either case Tropical Storm Bud will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the southern end of Baja California for another day or so.  Bud will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the west coast of Mexico later on Friday.  Heavy rain could cause flash flooding in some locations.

Tropical Depression Four-E formed south of Acapulco on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 100.1°W which put it about 100 miles (155 km) south of Acapulco, Mexico.  It was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.  Because of the proximity to the coast the government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado.

A center of circulation developed in a cluster of thunderstorms south of Mexico and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Four-E.  The circulation was still organizing.  Several fragmented bands of showers and thunderstorms formed in the outer portions of the circulation.  The center of circulation was broad and there were several smaller cyclonic rotations swirling around inside the broader center.

Tropical Depression Four-E will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The proximity to the coast will be the primary factor inhibiting intensification.  The circulation could pull in drier air from Mexico.  Tropical Depression Four-E is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm on Friday.

Tropical Depression Four-E will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge, but the steering currents are likely to be weak.  The depression is expected to move slowly toward the north-northwest during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track the center of the depression could move near the coast during the weekend.  It could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain.  The rain could cause flash floods.

Hurricane Dora Weakens South of Baja California

Hurricane Dora weakened as it moved over cooler water south of Baja California on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Dora was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 111.4°W which put it about 245 miles (400 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Dora as moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Tropical Storm Dora is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 24°C.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Dora is still very well organized but it is unable to extract sufficient energy from the upper ocean to maintain its intensity.  As a result, the showers and thunderstorms are not rising as far into the atmosphere and the circulation is spinning down.  There is little vertical wind shear and so the circulation is still symmetrical, but it is not as vigorous.  The lack of wind shear will cause the weakening to occur more slowly than it would have if the upper level winds were stronger.

A subtropical ridge is steering Tropical Storm Dora toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for anther day or two.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Dora will move farther away from Baja California.  The forecast track would keep Dora over cooler SSTs and it should continue to weaken.

Dora Rapidly Intensifies Into First Eastern Pacific Hurricane of 2017

Tropical Storm Dora intensified rapidly into a hurricane during the overnight hours.  Dora is the first hurricane to develop over the Eastern North Pacific during 2017.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Dora was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 106.3°W which put it about 220 miles (350 km) south of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Dora was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (140 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

The circulation of Hurricane Dora is very well organized.  A circular eye exists at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounds the eye.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of the circulation.  Thunderstorms in Dora are generating well developed upper level divergence which is pumping large quantities of mass out in all directions.

Dora is a small hurricane.  Wind to hurricane force extend out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 7.3.  The Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 20.0.

Hurricane Dora will move through an environment favorable for intensification for another 12 to 18 hours.  It is currently over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 28°C.  Dora will move over SSTs that will gradually be cooler, but they should be warm enough to support further intensification for another 12 to 18 hours.  Hurricane Dora is moving through an area where upper level winds are weak and there is almost no vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Dora is likely to strengthen further during the next few hours.  Dora will move over much cooler SSTs when it passes south of Baja California and it will begin to weaken on Tuesday.

A subtropical ridge to the north of Dora is steering the hurricane toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for another 24 to 48 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Dora will pass south of Baja California.