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Tropical Storm Fausto Develops South of Baja California

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Tropical Storm Fausto developed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Sunday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Fausto was located at latitude 12.4°N and longitude 112.7°W which put the center about 750 miles (1205 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Fausto was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Former Tropical Depression Six-E strengthened on Sunday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Fausto.

Tropical Storm Fausto was strengthening gradually on Sunday afternoon.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Fausto’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Fausto.  Bands in the eastern side of Fausto’s circulation still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Fausto began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northwestern part of Tropical Storm Fausto.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Fausto’s circulation.  The winds in the other parts of Tropical Storm Fausto were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fausto will move through and environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fausto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is southwest of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Fausto will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Fausto is likely to strengthen to a hurricane on Monday.

Tropical Storm Fausto will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fausto toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Fausto will move farther away from Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Elida was weakening slowly as it churned west of Baja California.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located at latitude 23.2°N and longitude 125.9°W which put the center about 1015 miles (1635 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Elida was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Storm Elida Starts to Weaken

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Tropical Storm Elida started to weaken on Saturday evening as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located at latitude 20.6°N and longitude 124.8°W which put the center about 970 miles (1560 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Elida was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Storm Elida started to weaken on Saturday evening after Elida had strengthened almost to hurricane intensity earlier in the day.  Tropical Storm Elida started to move over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures which is what caused Elida to weaken.  The cooler Sea Surface Temperatures were already starting to affect the structure of Elida’s circulation.  Bands in the northern side of Tropical Storm Elida consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern half of Elida’s circulation.

The distribution of winds speeds around Tropical Storm Elida continued to be asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the eastern side of Elida’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the western half of Tropical Storm Elida.

Tropical Storm Elida will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Elida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is off the West Coast of the U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Elida’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  The combination of cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and more vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Elida to weaken steadily on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Elida will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Elida toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Elida will remain far to the west of Baja California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Six-E formed south of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Depression Six-E was located at latitude 11.3°N and longitude 109.1°W which put the center about 805 miles (1290 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  The tropical depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Tropical Depression Six-E is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane by early next week.

Tropical Storm Elida Churns Northwest

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Tropical Cyclone Elida churned toward the northwest over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Baja California on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 121.9°E which put the center about 875 miles (1410 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Elida was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Elida maintained its intensity on Friday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Elida’s circulation.  However, the circulation around Elida appeared to pull some drier air into the eastern side of the tropical storm.  Thunderstorms in some of the bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Elida weakened.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were still revolving around the center of Elida’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Elida also still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure did not change much on Friday.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Storm Elida was still asymmetrical on Friday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) in the eastern side of Elida’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the western side of Tropical Storm Elida.

Tropical Storm Elida will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification for about another 24 hours.  Elida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Elida could still intensify to a hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Elida is likely to start to weaken on Sunday when it moves over cooler water.

Tropical Storm Elida will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Elida toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Elida will remain far to the west of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Elida Spins Southwest of Baja California

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Tropical Storm Elida was spinning over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Thursday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located at latitude 15.7°N and longitude 117.4°E which put the center about 695 miles (1120 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Elida was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Tropical Storm Elida intensified gradually on Friday as it spun west of Baja California.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Elida’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Elida generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were blowing in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Elida.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) in the eastern half of Elida’s circulation.  The winds in the western half of Tropical Storm Elida were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Elida will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Elida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Elida will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Elida is likely to strengthen to a hurricane on Friday.

Tropical Storm Elida will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Elida toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Elida will remain far to the southwest of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Elida Develops South of Baja California

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Tropical Storm Elida developed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean South of Baja California on Tuesday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located at latitude 14.9°N and longitude 111.8°E which put the center about 565 miles (910 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Elida was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean strengthened on Tuesday night and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Elida.

Numerous thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Storm Elida early on Wednesday.  Thunderstorms were also developing in bands revolving around the center of Elida’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Elida generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Storm Elida.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northern half of Elida’s circulation.  The winds in the southern half of Tropical Storm Elida were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Elida will move through an environment that will be very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Elida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Elida will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Elida could intensify rapidly.

Tropical Storm Elida will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Elida toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Elida will move farther away from the southern part of Baja California.

Hurricane Erick Hits Southern Mexico

Hurricane Erick hit the coast of southern Mexico on Thursday morning.  Erick started to weaken after it moved inland near the border between Oaxaca and Guerrero.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Erick was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 99.0°W which put the center about 60 miles (95 km) east-northeast of Acapulco, Mexico.  Erick was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Escondido to Acapulco, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana, Mexico.

Hurricane Erick rapidly intensified to a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale before it made landfall on the coast of Mexico.  The maximum sustained wind speed at the time of landfall was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).

Hurricane force winds extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Erick’s circulation at the time of landfall.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Erick.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Erick at the time of landfall was 28.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.3.  Hurricane Erick was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Charley when Charley hit southwest Florida in 2004.

The center of Hurricane Erick made landfall near Punta Maldonado.  Erick will continue to move northwest over Guerrero.  Hurricane Erick will weaken quickly when it moves over the Sierra Madres del Sur.  Erick will continue to drop heavy rain over parts of Oaxaca and Guerrero as it weakens.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Erick Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 2

Hurricane Erick rapidly intensified to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Wednesday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Erick was located at latitude 14.2°N and longitude 96.3°W which put the center about 215 miles (345 km) southeast of Punta Maldonado, Mexico.    Erick was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Angel to Acapulco, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana, Mexico. 

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana, Mexico.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane investigating Hurricane Erick on Wednesday afternoon found that Erick had rapidly intensified to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  A circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) was present at the center of Erick’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Erick.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away in all directions from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The distribution of winds speeds around Hurricane Erick was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Erick’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hurricane Erick.

Hurricane Erick will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours.  Erick will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over southern Mexico and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Erick will intensify during the next 18 hours. Erick is likely to intensify rapidly.  Hurricane Erick is likely to strengthen to a major hurricane by Thursday.

Hurricane Erick will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Central America and southern Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Erick toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Erick will move toward the coast of southern Mexico.  Erick is likely to make landfall in southern Mexico between Acapulco and Punta Maldonado early on Thursday.

Hurricane Erick is likely to be a major hurricane when it makes landfall on the coast of Mexico.  Erick will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Oaxaca, Guerrero and Michoacan.  The strongest winds and heaviest rains will occur in Guerrero.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Erick could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast.

Erick Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Erick intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Wednesday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Erick was located at latitude 13.5°N and longitude 95.7°W which put the center about 275 miles (440 km) southeast of Punta Maldonado, Mexico.   Erick was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Angel to Acapulco, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm Erick intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Wednesday morning.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of Erick’s circulation.  A small circular eye appeared to be forming at the center of Hurricane Erick.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Erick’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Erick generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease more quickly.

The distribution of wind speeds around Hurricane Erick became more symmetrical when it intensified.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Erick’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Hurricane Erick.

Hurricane Erick will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Erick will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over southern Mexico and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Erick will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Erick could rapidly intensify at times.  Hurricane Erick could strengthen to a major hurricane by Thursday.

Hurricane Erick will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Central America and southern Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Erick toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Erick will move toward the coast of southern Mexico.  Erick is likely to make landfall in southern Mexico between Acapulco and Punta Maldonado on Thursday.

Hurricane Erick could be a major hurricane when it makes landfall on the coast of Mexico.  Erick will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Oaxaca, Guerrero and Michoacan.  The strongest winds and heaviest rains will occur in Guerrero.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Storm Erick could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast.

Tropical Storm Erick Strengthens

Tropical Storm Erick strengthened on Tuesday as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 94.9°W which put the center about 330 miles (535 km) southeast of Punta Maldonado, Mexico.  Erick was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Angel to Acapulco, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Erick strengthened on Tuesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center of Erick’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Erick.  Storms near the center of Erick generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Storm Erick was somewhat asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western half of Erick’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Erick.

Tropical Storm Erick will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Erick will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over Central America and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Erick will intensify during the next 36 hours.  Erick could rapidly intensify at times.  Tropical Storm Erick will intensify to a hurricane on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Erick will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Central America and southern Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Erick toward the northwest during the next 36 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Erick will move toward the coast of southern Mexico.  Erick could make landfall in southern Mexico between Acapulco and Punta Maldonado on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Erick will be a hurricane when it makes landfall on the coast of Mexico.  Erick will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Oaxaca, Guerrero and Michoacan.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Storm Erick could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast.

Tropical Storm Erick Forms, Hurricane Watch for Mexico

Tropical Storm Erick formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico early on Tuesday.  The government of Mexico issued a Hurricane Watch for the portion of the coast.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located at latitude 12.1°N and longitude 93.8°W which put the center about 515 miles (830 km) southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.  Erick was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahias de Huatulco to Punta Maldonado, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz, Mexico.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean strengthened during Monday night and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Erick.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Erick exhibited more organization on Tuesday morning.  Bands of thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Erick’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Erick generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Storm Erick will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Erick will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over Central America and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Erick will intensify during the next 36 hours.  Erick could rapidly intensify to a hurricane by Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Erick will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Central America and southern Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Erick toward the northwest during the next 36 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Erick will move toward the coast of southern Mexico.  Erick could make landfall in southern Mexico between Acapulco and Punta Maldonado on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Erick will be a hurricane when it makes landfall on the coast of Mexico.  Erick will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Oaxaca, Guerrero and Michoacan.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Storm Erick could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast.