Tropical Cyclone Errol intensified over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Tuesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Errol was located at latitude 13.9°S and longitude 120.5°E which put the center about 290 miles (470 km) north-northwest of Broome, Australia. Errol was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.
A former Tropical Low over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia started to intensify on Tuesday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Errol.
The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Errol exhibited much more organization on Tuesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center of Errol’s circulation. The strongest winds were occurring in the inner part of that rainband. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Errol. Storms near the center of Errol’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.
The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Errol was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Errol’s circulation.
Tropical Cyclone Errol will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Errol will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over Australia and the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Errol will intensify during the next 24 hours. Errol could intensify rapidly at times. Tropical Cyclone Errol will strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon. Errol could intensify to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Wednesday.
Tropical Cyclone Errol will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer the Tropical Low toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Errol will remain north of Western Australia during the next day or so. Errol could move back toward the southeast later this week.