Tropical Cyclone Errol rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Errol was located at latitude 14.2°S and longitude 119.5°E which put the center about 310 miles (500 km) north-northwest of Broome, Australia.  Errol was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Errol rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Tuesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Errol’s circulation.  A very small circular eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Errol.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Errol’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Errol generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Errol was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Errol’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Errol.

Tropical Cyclone Errol will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Errol will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over Australia and the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Errol will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Errol is likely to rapidly intensify to the equivalent of a  major hurricane..

Tropical Cyclone Errol will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Errol toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Errol will remain north of Western Australia during the next day or so. Errol could move back toward the southeast later this week.