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Tropical Cyclone Indusa Weakens

Tropical Cyclone Indusa weakened on Sunday as it moved quickly toward the southeast over the South Indian Ocean.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Indusa was located at latitude 32.9°S and longitude 73.8°E which put the center about 1125 miles (1815 km) south-southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Indusa was moving toward the southeast at 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Indusa weakened on Sunday as it move over cooler water.  In addition, an upper level trough that was southeast of Madagascar produced strong northwesterly winds that blew across the top of Indusa’s circulation.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear.  The effects of the cooler water and strong vertical wind shear caused Tropical Cyclone Indusa to weaken.

The strong northwesterly winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere blew the top half of Tropical Cyclone Indusa to the southeast of Indusa’s low level circulation.  Bands around the low level center of Indusa’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Since the low level circulation did not generate upper level divergence, the surface pressure increased on Sunday.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Indusa.

Tropical Cyclone Indusa will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Indusa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 22°C.  It will continue to be under the eastern part of the upper level trough that is southeast of Madagascar.  The upper level trough will continue to produce strong northwesterly winds that will blow across the top of Indusa’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  Cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Indusa to continue to weaken on Monday.  The cooler water and strong vertical wind shear will cause Indusa to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough that is southeast of Madagascar will steer Tropical Cyclone Indusa toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Indusa will continue to move quickly farther away from Rodrigues.

Tropical Cyclone Indusa Passes East of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Indusa passed east of Rodrigues on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Indusa was located at latitude 24.7°S and longitude 70.4°E which put the center about 575 miles (930 km) east-southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Indusa was moving toward the south at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Indusa strengthened on Saturday as it passed well to the east of Rodrigues.  Thunderstorms continued to form near the center of Indusa’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Indusa.  Storms near the center of Indusa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Indusa became a little more asymmetrical on Saturday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Indusa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Indusa.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the western half of Indusa’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Indusa will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Indusa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24°C.  It will move under the eastern part of an upper level trough that is southeast of Madagascar.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Indusa’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and more vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Indusa to weaken on Sunday.

The upper level trough that is southeast of Madagascar will steer Tropical Cyclone Indusa toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Indusa will move rapidly farther away from Rodrigues.

Tropical Cyclone Indusa Strengthens to Equivalent of a Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Indusa strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean east of Rodrigues on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Indusa was located at latitude 18.5°S and longitude 71.3°E which put the center about 535 miles (655 km) east of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Indusa was moving toward the south-southwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Indusa strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Friday.  the inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Indusa’s circulation.  Some satellite images showed indications that a small circular eye could be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Indusa.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Indusa’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Indusa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Indusa.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) in the eastern half of Indusa’s circulation.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Indusa continued to be small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Indusa’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Indusa will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Indusa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Indusa’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Indusa could continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.  Indusa is likely to start to weaken when it moves over colder water later in the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Indusa will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Indusa toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Indusa will move farther away from Rodrigues on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Indusa Forms South Of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Indusa formed over the South Indian Ocean south of Diego Garcia on Wednesday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Indusa was located at latitude 12.3°S and longitude 73.4°E which put the center about 345 miles (555 km) south of Diego, Garcia.  Indusa was moving toward the south-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean south of Diego Garcia strengthened on Wednesday night and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Indusa.

More thunderstorms were forming near the center of Tropical Cyclone Indusa on Thursday morning.  Thunderstorms were also developing in bands revolving around the center of Indusa’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Indusa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Indusa was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Indusa’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Indusa will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Indusa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Indusa’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Indusa will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Indusa is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Indusa will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Indusa toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Indusa will move farther away from Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Errol Makes Landfall in Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Errol made landfall on the coast of Western Australia on Friday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Errol was located at latitude 16.1°S and longitude 124.3°E which put the center about 20 miles (35 km) south-southwest of Kuri Bay, Australia.  Errol was moving toward the east at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Errol made landfall on the coast of Western Australia south-southwest of Kuri Bay on Friday.  Errol was weakening at the time of landfall.  Tropical Cyclone Errol was the equivalent of a tropical storm when it made landfall.  The circulation around Errol was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Errol.

An upper level trough near the coast of Western Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Errol toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Errol will move inland over Western Australia.  The center of Errol’s circulation will move southeast of Kuri Bay.

Tropical Cyclone Errol will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Western Australia south of Kuri Bay.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Errol Weakens Rapidly

Tropical Cyclone Errol weakened rapidly as it approached the coast of Western Australia on Thursday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Errol was located at latitude 16.2°S and longitude 122.1°E which put the center about 135 miles (220 km) north-northwest of Broome, Australia.  Errol was moving toward the east-southeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

A Warning is in effect for the coast of Western Australia from Kuri Bay to Broome.  The Warning includes Derby.

Tropical Cyclone Errol weakened rapidly as it approached the coast of Western Australia on Thursday.  An upper level trough near the coast of Western Australia was producing strong northwesterly winds that were blowing the top of Errol’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear was causing Tropical Cyclone Errol to weaken rapidly.

The strong vertical wind shear was also affecting the structure of Tropical Cyclone Errol.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern side of Errol’s circulation.  Bands in the western side of Tropical Cyclone Errol consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Errol was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 15 miles (25 km) in the eastern side of Errol’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Errol.

Tropical Cyclone Errol will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Errol will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  However, the upper level trough near the coast of western Australia will continue to produce strong northwesterly winds that will blow toward the of Errol’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Errol to continue to weaken rapidly.

The upper level trough near the coast of Western Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Errol toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Errol will make landfall near Cape Leveque in about 12 hours.  The center of Errol’s circulation will pass north of Derby.

Tropical Cyclone Errol will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the part of Western Australia near Cape Leveque and northeast of Derby.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Errol Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Errol rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Wednesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Errol was located at latitude 14.2°S and longitude 118.9°E which put the center about 325 miles (520 km) northwest of Broome, Australia.  Errol was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 919 mb.

A Watch is in effect for the coast of Western Australia from Kuri Bay to Broome.  The Watch includes Derby.

Tropical Cyclone Errol rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Wednesday.  A very small circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was at the center of Errol’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Errol.  Storms near the core of Errol generated upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Errol increased while Errol rapidly intensified.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Errol’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Errol.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Errol is 35.0.  The Hurricane Size index (HSI) is 12.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 47.8.  Tropical Cyclone Errol is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.

Tropical Cyclone Errol will move through an environment favorable for a powerful tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Errol will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over Australia and the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Errol could continue to intensify during the next 24 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.  If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could cause Errol to weaken.  An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Tropical Cyclone Errol on Thursday.  The upper level trough will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  More vertical wind shear will cause Errol to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Errol will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Errol toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Errol will remain north of Western Australia during the next day or so.  The upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will cause Errol to start to move back toward the southeast on Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Errol Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Errol rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia during Tuesday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Errol was located at latitude 14.2°S and longitude 119.1°E which put the center about 325 miles (520 km) northwest of Broome, Australia. Errol was moving toward the west-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 940 mb.

A Watch is in effect for the coast of Western Australia from Kuri Bay to Broome.  The Watch includes Derby.

Tropical Cyclone Errol rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a  major hurricane during Tuesday night.  A very small circular eye with a diameter of 8 miles (13 km) was at the center of Errol’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Errol.  Storms near the core of Errol generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Errol was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Errol’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Errol.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Errol is 28.3.  The Hurricane Size index (HSI) is 7.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 35.5  Tropical Cyclone Errol is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Charley when Charley hit Southwest Florida in 2004.

Tropical Cyclone Errol will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Errol will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over Australia and the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Errol could continue to intensify during the next 24 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.  If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could cause Errol to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Errol will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Errol toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Errol will remain north of Western Australia during the next day or so.  Errol could start to move back toward the southeast on Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Errol Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Errol rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Errol was located at latitude 14.2°S and longitude 119.5°E which put the center about 310 miles (500 km) north-northwest of Broome, Australia.  Errol was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Errol rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Tuesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Errol’s circulation.  A very small circular eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Errol.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Errol’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Errol generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Errol was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Errol’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Errol.

Tropical Cyclone Errol will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Errol will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over Australia and the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Errol will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Errol is likely to rapidly intensify to the equivalent of a  major hurricane..

Tropical Cyclone Errol will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Errol toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Errol will remain north of Western Australia during the next day or so. Errol could move back toward the southeast later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Errol Intensifies Northwest of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Errol intensified over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Tuesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Errol was located at latitude 13.9°S and longitude 120.5°E which put the center about 290 miles (470 km) north-northwest of Broome, Australia.  Errol was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A former Tropical Low over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia started to intensify on Tuesday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Errol.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Errol exhibited much more organization on Tuesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center of Errol’s circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in the inner part of that rainband.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Errol.  Storms near the center of Errol’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Errol was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Errol’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Errol will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Errol will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over Australia and the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Errol will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Errol could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Cyclone Errol will strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.  Errol could intensify to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Errol will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the Tropical Low toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Errol will remain north of Western Australia during the next day or so.  Errol could move back toward the southeast later this week.