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Tropical Cyclone Indusa Weakens

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Tropical Cyclone Indusa weakened on Sunday as it moved quickly toward the southeast over the South Indian Ocean.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Indusa was located at latitude 32.9°S and longitude 73.8°E which put the center about 1125 miles (1815 km) south-southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Indusa was moving toward the southeast at 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Indusa weakened on Sunday as it move over cooler water.  In addition, an upper level trough that was southeast of Madagascar produced strong northwesterly winds that blew across the top of Indusa’s circulation.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear.  The effects of the cooler water and strong vertical wind shear caused Tropical Cyclone Indusa to weaken.

The strong northwesterly winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere blew the top half of Tropical Cyclone Indusa to the southeast of Indusa’s low level circulation.  Bands around the low level center of Indusa’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Since the low level circulation did not generate upper level divergence, the surface pressure increased on Sunday.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Indusa.

Tropical Cyclone Indusa will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Indusa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 22°C.  It will continue to be under the eastern part of the upper level trough that is southeast of Madagascar.  The upper level trough will continue to produce strong northwesterly winds that will blow across the top of Indusa’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  Cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Indusa to continue to weaken on Monday.  The cooler water and strong vertical wind shear will cause Indusa to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough that is southeast of Madagascar will steer Tropical Cyclone Indusa toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Indusa will continue to move quickly farther away from Rodrigues.

Tropical Cyclone Indusa Passes East of Rodrigues

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Tropical Cyclone Indusa passed east of Rodrigues on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Indusa was located at latitude 24.7°S and longitude 70.4°E which put the center about 575 miles (930 km) east-southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Indusa was moving toward the south at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Indusa strengthened on Saturday as it passed well to the east of Rodrigues.  Thunderstorms continued to form near the center of Indusa’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Indusa.  Storms near the center of Indusa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Indusa became a little more asymmetrical on Saturday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Indusa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Indusa.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the western half of Indusa’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Indusa will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Indusa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24°C.  It will move under the eastern part of an upper level trough that is southeast of Madagascar.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Indusa’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and more vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Indusa to weaken on Sunday.

The upper level trough that is southeast of Madagascar will steer Tropical Cyclone Indusa toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Indusa will move rapidly farther away from Rodrigues.

Tropical Cyclone Indusa Strengthens to Equivalent of a Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Indusa strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean east of Rodrigues on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Indusa was located at latitude 18.5°S and longitude 71.3°E which put the center about 535 miles (655 km) east of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Indusa was moving toward the south-southwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Indusa strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Friday.  the inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Indusa’s circulation.  Some satellite images showed indications that a small circular eye could be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Indusa.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Indusa’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Indusa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Indusa.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) in the eastern half of Indusa’s circulation.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Indusa continued to be small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Indusa’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Indusa will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Indusa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Indusa’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Indusa could continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.  Indusa is likely to start to weaken when it moves over colder water later in the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Indusa will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Indusa toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Indusa will move farther away from Rodrigues on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Indusa Forms South Of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Indusa formed over the South Indian Ocean south of Diego Garcia on Wednesday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Indusa was located at latitude 12.3°S and longitude 73.4°E which put the center about 345 miles (555 km) south of Diego, Garcia.  Indusa was moving toward the south-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean south of Diego Garcia strengthened on Wednesday night and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Indusa.

More thunderstorms were forming near the center of Tropical Cyclone Indusa on Thursday morning.  Thunderstorms were also developing in bands revolving around the center of Indusa’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Indusa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Indusa was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Indusa’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Indusa will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Indusa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Indusa’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Indusa will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Indusa is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Indusa will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Indusa toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Indusa will move farther away from Diego Garcia.