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Hurricane Genevieve Intensifies to Cat. 5

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Hurricane Genevieve intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Sunday night as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Genevieve was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 112.2°W which put the center about 530 miles (855 km) south-southwest of southern tip of Baja California.  Genevieve was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 925 mb.

Hurricane Genevieve intensified to Category 5 on Sunday night.  A circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was at the center of Genevieve’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Genevieve’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Genevieve generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large amounts of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The distribution of wind speeds in Hurricane Genevieve became more symmetrical on Sunday night.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Genevieve’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of Hurricane Genevieve.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Genevieve was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HII) was 16.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 51.5.  Hurricane Genevieve was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.

Hurricane Genevieve will move into an environment that will become slighyly less favorable for an intense hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Genevieve will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Genevieve will start to move into a region where the air is a little drier later today.  Hurricane Genevieve is likely to start to weaken when it moves into the region of drier air.

Hurricane Genevieve will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Southwest U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Genevieve toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Genevieve will move parallel to the coast of Baja California.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Fausto continued to weaken slowly as it moved over the Central North Pacific Ocean east of Hawaii.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Fausto was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 144.8°W which put the center about 670 miles (1080 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Fausto was moving toward the west-northwes at 14 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Genevieve Rapidly Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

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Hurricane Genevieve rapidly intensified to a major hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Sunday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Genevieve was located at latitude 13.4°N and longitude 109.4°W which put the center about 515 miles (825 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Genevieve was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) formed at the center of Hurricane Genevieve.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Genevieve’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Genevieve generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large amounts of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the northern side of Hurricane Genevieve.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) in the southern side of Genevieve’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of Hurricane Genevieve.

Hurricane Genevieve will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Genevieve will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Genevieve will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Genevieve could continue to intensify rapidly during the next few hours.   Hurricane Genevieve could strengthen to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Genevieve will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Southwest U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Genevieve toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Genevieve will move parallel to the west coast of Mexico.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Fausto was weakening slowly as it moved over the Central North Pacific Ocean.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Fausto was located at latitude 19.9°N and longitude 141.1°W which put the center about 910 miles (1465 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Fausto was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

Genevieve Strengthens to a Hurricane

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Former Tropical Storm Genevieve strengthened to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Genevieve was located at latitude 12.1°N and longitude 106.7°W which put the center about 500 miles (810 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Genevieve was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Genevieve strengthened to a hurricane on Saturday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and northern sides of the center of Genevieve’s circulation.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Hurricane Genevieve.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Genevieve’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Genevieve generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the section of the rainband that wrapped around the northeastern part of the center of Hurricane Genevieve.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles in the northeastern quadrant of Genevieve’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Hurricane Genevieve.

Hurricane Genevieve will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Genevieve will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Genevieve will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Genevieve could intensify rapidly at times.  Genevieve is likely to strengthen to a major hurricane by early next week.

Hurricane Genevieve will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Southwest U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Genevieve toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Genevieve will move parallel to the west coast of Mexico.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Fausto was nearing the Central Pacific Ocean.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Fausto was located at latitude 19.5°N and longitude 138.8°W which put the center about 1060 miles (1702 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Fausto was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

 

Hurricane Fausto Strengthens a Little More

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Hurricane Fausto strengthened a little more on Friday morning as it moved toward the Central Pacific Ocean.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Fausto was located at latitude 18.6°N and longitude 131.2°W which put the center about 1560 miles (2510 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Fausto was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Hurricane Fausto continued to strengthen early on Friday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Fausto’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Fausto’ circulation.  Storms near the center of Fausto generated more upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Hurricane Fausto became more symmetrical on Friday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Fausto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Hurricane Fausto.

Hurricane Fausto will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fausto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is southwest of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  There is drier air just to the north and west of Hurricane Fausto.  The drier air is likely to inhibit the development of new thunderstorms in bands in the northern and western parts of Fausto’s circulation.  Hurricane Fausto is likely to weaken during the next 24 hours because of the effects of the drier air.

Hurricane Fausto will move around the southern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fausto toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Fausto will continue to move toward the Central Pacific Ocean.  Fausto could be near the Hawaiian Islands by the middle of next week.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Seven-E formed south of Mexico.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Seven-E was located at latitude 9.0°N and longitude 100.5°W which put the center about 605 miles (975 km) south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.  The tropical depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Hurricane Fausto Strengthens

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Hurricane Fausto strengthened on Thursday as it moved toward the Central Pacific Ocean.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Fausto was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 128.4°W which put the center about 1745 miles (2805 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Fausto was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Hurricane Fausto strengthened on Thursday.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Fausto’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Fausto.  Storms near the center of Fausto generated more upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease on Thursday.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Fausto increased on Thursday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the northern side of Fausto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) in the northern half of Hurricane Fausto.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the southern half of Fausto’s circulation.

Hurricane Fausto will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fausto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is southwest of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  There is drier air just to the north and west of Hurricane Fausto.  The drier air could inhibit the development of thunderstorms in bands in the northern and western parts of Fausto’s circulation.  Hurricane Fausto could intensify a little more on Friday if the drier air does not prevent the formation of new thunderstorms.

Hurricane Fausto will move around the southern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fausto toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Fausto will continue to move toward the Central Pacific Ocean.

Hurricane Fausto Moves Toward Central Pacific

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Hurricane Fausto was moving toward the Central Pacific Ocean on Wednesday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Fausto was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 123.0°W which put the center about 2155 miles (3475 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Fausto was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Hurricane Fausto did not change much on Wednesday.  A small circular eye was visible intermittently on satellite images.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Fausto’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Fausto generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure did not change much on Wednesday.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of Hurricane Fausto.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Fausto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of Hurricane Fausto.

Hurricane Fausto will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fausto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is southwest of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  There is drier air just to the north of Hurricane Fausto.  The drier air could inhibit the development of thunderstorms in bands in the northern and western parts of Fausto’s circulation.  Hurricane Fausto could intensify during the next 24 hours if the drier air does not prevent the formation of new thunderstorms.

Hurricane Fausto will move around the southern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fausto toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Fausto will continue to move toward the Central Pacific Ocean.

Tropical Depression Two-E Forms South of Acapulco

Tropical Depression Two-E formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Acapulco, Mexico on Sunday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Two-E was located at latitude 15.7°N and longitude 99.8°W which put the center about 85 miles (135 km) south of Acapulco, Mexico.  The tropical depression was moving toward the northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Warning that is in effect for the portion of the coast from Laguna de Chacahua to Tecpan de Galeana.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Acapulco.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Acapulco strengthened on Sunday and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Two-E.

A few more thunderstorms were forming near the center of Tropical Depression Two-E on Sunday afternoon.  More thunderstorms were also developing in bands revolving around the center of the tropical depression.  Storms near the center of Tropical Depression Two-E started to generate upper level divergence that was pumping mass away to the west of the tropical depression.  The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease slowly,

Tropical Depression Two-E will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours.  The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical depression.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Depression Two-E could intensify to a tropical storm.

Tropical Depression Two-E around the western side of a high pressure system that is over southeastern Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Two-E will make landfall on the coast of Mexico east of Acapulco in less than 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Two-E could be a tropical storm at the time of landfall.  In any case, the tropical depression or tropical storm will being strong winds and heavy rain to Guerrero and Oaxaca.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Amanda continued to weaken slowly far to the east-southeast of Hawaii.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Amanda was located at latitude 11.5°N and longitude 135.4°W which put the center about 1425 miles (2295 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Amanda was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Amanda Weakens to a Tropical Depression

Former Tropical Storm Amanda weakened to a tropical depression over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean east-southeast of Hawaii on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Amanda was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 134.7°W which put the center about 1445 miles (2325 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Amanda was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Amanda weakened to a tropical depression on Saturday.  A combination of dry, stable air and vertical wind shear caused many of the remaining thunderstorms in Amanda’s circulation to dissipate.  A few thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the western side of Tropical Depression Amanda.  Most of the bands revolving around the center of Amanda’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

There were no thunderstorms near the center of Tropical Depression Amanda to generate upper level divergence.  Convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere caused the surface pressure to increase slowly.

Tropical Depression Amanda will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Amanda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is west of Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Amanda’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  In addition, Tropical Depression Amanda will continue to move through a region of drier air.  The vertical wind shear and the drier air will cause Tropical Depression Amanda to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Amanda will move around the southern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Amanda slowly toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Amanda will remain far to the east-southeast of Hawaii.

Kiko Weakens to a Tropical Storm

Former Hurricane Kiko weakened to a tropical storm over the Central Pacific Ocean northeast of Hawaii on Monday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located at latitude 21.9°N and longitude 152.1°W which put the center about 245 miles (395 km) northeast of Hilo Hawaii.  Kiko was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Former Hurricane Kiko weakened to a tropical storm over the Central Pacific Ocean northeast of Hawaii during Monday night.  An upper level low that is north of Hawaii produced strong southwesterly winds that blew across the top of Kiko’s circulation.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear caused Kiko to weaken to a tropical storm.

The strong upper level winds blew the tops off of most of the thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Kiko.  A few thunderstorms remained in the far northeastern periphery of Kiko’s circulation.  Most of the bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Kiko consisted of showers and lower clouds.  Since there were no thunderstorms near the center of Kiko to pump mass away, the surface pressure increased rapidly.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Storm Kiko expanded a little as Kiko weakened.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Kiko’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Kiko will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kiko will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  However, the upper low north of Hawaii will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Kiko to continue to weaken.

Tropical Storm Kiko will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Central Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Kiko toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Kiko will pass north of Hawaii.

 

Hurricane Kiko Weakens

Hurricane Kiko weakened east of Hawaii on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Kiko was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 145.5°W which put the center about 635 miles (1025 km) east of Hilo Hawaii. Kiko was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Hurricane Kiko weakened east of Hawaii on Sunday as it moved over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was near 26°C.  A circular eye was still present at the center of Kiko’s circulation, but low clouds were starting to appear inside the eye.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Storms near the center of Kiko generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  However, more mass was converging in the lower levels of the atmosphere than was being pumped away in the upper levels.  So, the surface pressure was increasing.

The circulation around Hurricane Kiko was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Kiko’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Hurricane Kiko.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Zeta was 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.3. Hurricane Kiko was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Hurricane Kiko will move through an environment that will become even more unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kiko will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  The water just to the north of Kiko’s forecast track is even colder. It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level low that is north of Hawaii.  The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Kiko’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  The combination of marginal Sea Surface Temperatures and more vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Kiko to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Kiko will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Kiko toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Kiko will be northeast of Hawaii on Monday night.