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Tropical Storm Norbert Develops Southwest of Baja California

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Tropical Storm Norbert developed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Wednesday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 117.9°W which put the center about 685 miles (1105 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Norbert was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California strengthened on Wednesday night and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Norbert.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Norbert was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Norbert’s circulation.  Bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Norbert consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

An upper level low that was west of Baja California was producing westerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Storm Norbert.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

The strongest winds were blowing in the northeastern part of Tropical Storm Norbert.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Norbert’s circulation.  The winds in the other parts of Tropical Storm Norbert were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Norbert will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Norbert will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However, the upper level low west of Baja California will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Norbert is likely to intensify slowly because of the moderate vertical wind shear.

Tropical Storm Norbert will move around the southern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Norbert toward the west during the next 24 hours,  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Norbert will move farther away from Baja California.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Lowell continued to spin far to the northwest of Hawaii.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was located at latitude 29.2°N and longitude 166.2°W which put the center about 655 miles (1050 km) northwest of Lihue, Hawaii.  Lowell was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Norbert Regains Tropical Depression Status South of Baja California

Former Tropical Storm Norbert regained tropical depression status south of Baja California on Tuesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Norbert was located at latitude 19.8°N and longitude 111.7°W which put it about 245 miles (390 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Norbert was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

After strong vertical wind shear weakened former Tropical Storm Norbert on Saturday, the lower levels of the circulation drifted slowly toward the northwest.  The surface circulation around the former tropical storm moved into a region where the upper level winds were not as strong on Monday.  More thunderstorms began to develop in bands revolving around around the center of the surface circulation.  Additional thunderstorms formed near the center of the low on Tuesday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Norbert.

Tropical Depression Norbert will move through a region somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Norbert will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C during the next 12 hours.  It will remain over water warmer than 26°C until Wednesday afternoon.  After that time Norbert will start to move over even cooler water.  An upper level low west of central Baja California will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Depression Norbert.  Those winds will produce vertical wind shear, but Norbert will remain east of the strongest shear for another 24 hours.  When Norbert gets closer to the upper level low later on Wednesday, then the shear will increase and will cause it to weaken.

Tropical Depression Norbert will move between the upper level low west of Baja Californa and and upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico.  Those two weather systems will steer Norbert toward the northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Norbert is forecast to move parallel to the west coast of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Norbert Develops Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Storm Norbert developed southwest of Mexico on Tuesday morning.  At 5: 00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 106.2°W which put it about 385 miles (625 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Norbert was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

The wind speed increased around a low pressure system southwest of Mexico on Tuesday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Norbert.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Norbert.  Storms near the center of circulation started to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing outside the center of Norbert.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Norbert was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 25 miles from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Norbert will be in an environment that is somewhat favorable for intensification.  Norbert will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  A large upper level trough extends from northern Mexico over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The trough will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Norbert.  Those winds will cause vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Norbert could strengthen if the shear is not too strong.

Tropical Storm Norbert will be in a region where the steering currents are weak..  Norbert is not likely to move very much during the next several days.  If Tropical Storm Norbert remains in the same location for more than a day, its winds will mix cooler water to the surface.  That would limit the energy Norbert could extract from the ocean, and the tropical storm could weaken.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific, Tropical Storm Marie continued to churn west away from Baja California.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located at latitude 21.7°W and longitude 134.3°W which put it about 1560 miles (2510 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Marie was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.