Tag Archives: EP18

Tropical Depression Terry Churns West

Tropical Depression Terry churned westward over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Wednesday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Terry was located at latitude 11.7°N and longitude 116.9°W which put it about 900 miles (1450 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Terry was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Depression Terry was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Terry’s circulation. Bands in the northern half of the tropical depression consisted of showers and lower clouds. Sinking drier air was being pulled into the northern side of Tropical Depression Terry. The drier air was inhibiting the formation of thunderstorms in that part of the circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Terry will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Terry will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Drier air near the northern side of Terry’s circulation could continue to inhibit the develop of thunderstorms in that part of the tropical depression. Tropical Depression Terry is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours. Terry could strengthen if more thunderstorms develop near the center of circulation.

Tropical Depression Terry will move south of a surface high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean during the next few days. The high pressure system will steer Terry toward the west. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Terry will continue to move farther away from Mexico.

Tropical Storms Sandra and Terry Develop over East Pacific

Tropical Storms Sandra and Terry developed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Sunday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Sandra was located at latitude 14.0°N and longitude 115.2°W which put it about 705 miles (1135 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Sandra was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Terry was located at latitude 8.5°N and longitude 102.6°W which put it about 735 miles (1180 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Terry was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Based on data from a scatterometer on a satellite, the National Hurricane Center upgraded former Tropical Depression Nineteen-E to Tropical Storm Sandra on Sunday afternoon. It appeared from later satellite images that Tropical Storm Sandra might already be weakening. A large upper level trough approaching the west coast of the U.S. was producing strong southerly winds that were blowing across the top of Sandra’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear. The strong upper level winds blew the tops off thunderstorms near the center of Sandra. The strongest remaining thunderstorms were occurring in bands east of the center. Bands in other parts of Tropical Storm Sandra consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The strongest winds were in the eastern half of Sandra. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles in the eastern half of Sandra. The winds in the western half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Sandra will move through an environment mostly unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Sandra will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. However, the large upper level trough will continue to produce strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear is likely to prevent Tropical Storm Sandra from strengthening. The strong shear could blow the top off of Sandra’s circulation and Tropical Storm Sandra is more likely to weaken during the next several days. Sandra will move south of a surface high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Sandra toward the west. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Sandra will move farther away from Mexico.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of former Tropical Depression Eighteen-E on Sunday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Terry. The circulation around Tropical Storm Terry exhibited more organization on satellite images. More thunderstorms also formed in bands revolving around the center of Terry. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) on the eastern side of Terry’s circulation. The winds in the western half of Terry were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Terry will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Terry will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level wind are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Terry could slowly intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Terry will move around the southern side of a surface high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Terry toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Terry will move farther away from Mexico.

Tropical Depression Forms South of El Salvador

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of El Salvador in Thursday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen-E was located at latitude 9.4°N and longitude 90.0°W which put it about 300 miles (485 km) south of San Salvador, El Salvador. The tropical depression was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Thunderstorms formed closer to the center of a small low pressure system south of El Salvador on Thursday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Eighteen-E. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in a band a little to the east of the center of circulation. Storms in that band began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression. Bands in the western half of the depression consisted of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge west of Central America. The northern part of the upper level ridge will produce weak westerly winds that will blow toward the top of the depression’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but it will not be strong enough to prevent the tropical depression from getting stronger. Tropical Depression Eighteen-E is likely to slowly intensify to a tropical storm during the next several days.

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E will move around the southern side of a surface high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer the tropical depression toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Eighteen-E will move farther away from Central America.

Tropical Storm Norbert Develops Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Storm Norbert developed southwest of Mexico on Tuesday morning.  At 5: 00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 106.2°W which put it about 385 miles (625 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Norbert was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

The wind speed increased around a low pressure system southwest of Mexico on Tuesday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Norbert.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Norbert.  Storms near the center of circulation started to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing outside the center of Norbert.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Norbert was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 25 miles from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Norbert will be in an environment that is somewhat favorable for intensification.  Norbert will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  A large upper level trough extends from northern Mexico over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The trough will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Norbert.  Those winds will cause vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Norbert could strengthen if the shear is not too strong.

Tropical Storm Norbert will be in a region where the steering currents are weak..  Norbert is not likely to move very much during the next several days.  If Tropical Storm Norbert remains in the same location for more than a day, its winds will mix cooler water to the surface.  That would limit the energy Norbert could extract from the ocean, and the tropical storm could weaken.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific, Tropical Storm Marie continued to churn west away from Baja California.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located at latitude 21.7°W and longitude 134.3°W which put it about 1560 miles (2510 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Marie was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Hurricane Marie Weakens West of Baja California

Hurricane Marie weakened west of Baja California on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Marie was located at latitude 19.5°N and longitude 127.9°W which put it about 1180 miles (1900 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Marie was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Hurricane Marie began to move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was cooler than 26°C on Saturday evening.  Marie was unable to extract enough energy from the ocean to maintain its intensity.  The circulation around Hurricane Marie pulled cooler, more stable air around its southern side.  The rainbands in the southern half of Marie started to weaken.  The southern side of the eyewall weakened too.  Strong thunderstorms were still occurring in rainbands in the northern half of Hurricane Marie.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center.

Hurricane Marie will move around the western side of a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S.  The high will steer Marie toward the north-northwest during the next few days.  Hurricane Marie will move over even cooler water during the next several days, which will cause it to weaken more quickly.  Marie could weaken to a tropical depression by the middle of next week.  Eventually, some of the moisture in Hurricane Marie could be transported over California by the end of next week.

Marie Strengthens into a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Marie strengthened into a major hurricane on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Marie was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 122.1°W which put it about 940 miles (1515 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Marie was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 957 mb.

The circulation around Hurricane Marie was very well organized on Thursday night.  There was a small circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) at the center of Marie.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Marie.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Marie.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center.

Hurricane Marie will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Marie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Marie is likely to strengthen on Friday.  If a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could begin which would cause Marie to weaken.  Hurricane Marie will move over cooler water during the weekend.  Marie will extract less energy from the ocean which will cause the wind speed to decrease.

Hurricane Marie will move south of a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S. and Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Marie toward the west-northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Marie will move farther away from Baja California.

Marie Rapidly Strengthens Into a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Marie rapidly strengthened into a hurricane on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Marie was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 115.1°W which put it about 685 miles (1100 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Marie was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

The circulation around Hurricane Marie exhibited much greater organization on Wednesday afternoon.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped entirely around the center of Marie.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Marie.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of the hurricane.  The circulation around Marie was small.  Winds to hurricane force only extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 60 miles from the center.

Hurricane Marie will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Marie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level wind are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Marie will continue to strengthen and it could intensify rapidly at time.  Marie could intensify into a major hurricane within 36 hours.

Hurricane Marie will move south of a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S.  The high will steer Marie toward the west-northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Marie will move farther away Baja California.

Tropical Storm Marie Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Marie formed south of Baja California on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 109.5°W which put it about 645 miles (1035 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Marie was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a small low pressure system south of Baja California on Tuesday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Marie.  The circulation around Marie was still organizing.  More thunderstorms were forming around the center of Tropical Storm Marie.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were also developing and the bands were revolving around the center of the tropical storm.  Storms near the center of Marie started to generate upper level divergence which began to pump mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  The circulation around the Tropical Storm Marie was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Marie will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next two to three days.  Marie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Marie could intensify into a hurricane within 36 hours.  Marie could strengthen more rapidly once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall forms.  Tropical Storm Marie could intensify into a major hurricane later this week.

Tropical Storm Marie will move south of a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S.  The high will steer Marie toward the west-northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Marie will move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Storm Octave Forms over Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Storm Octave formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Thursday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located at latitude 9.8°N and longitude 127.2°W which put it about 1455 miles (2345 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Octave was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of a small low pressure system between Mexico and Hawaii and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Octave.  The circulation around Octave exhibited more organization and tropical characteristics on Thursday evening.  There was a distinct low level center of circulation with thunderstorms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Octave was small.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Octave will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification.  Octave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is 28°C.  It will be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, there appears to be drier air north of Tropical Storm Octave.  If the circulation pulls drier air into the core of Octave, then thunderstorms around the center would weaken which would make intensification unlikely.  Tropical Storm Octave could strengthen a little during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Octave will be in a region where the winds at the steering level are weak.  Octave is forecast to move little during the next few days.  Because Tropical Storm Octave will not move much, it will remain well away from any land area.

Hurricane Olivia Churns Toward Hawaii

Hurricane Olivia churned toward Hawaii on Saturday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Olivia was located at latitude 21.4°N and longitude 138.0°W which put it about 1110 miles (1790 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Olivia was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Hurricane Olivia weakened slowly on Saturday, but it still had a well organized circulation.  There was a circular eye at the center of circulation.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Olivia.  The rainbands in the eastern half of the circulation were stronger than the bands in the western half of the circulation.  Storms near the core of Olivia were generating upper level divergence.

Hurricane Olivia will move through an environment that could allow it to remain a hurricane for several more days.  Olivia is currently over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 25°C, but it will move over slightly warmer water during the next several days.  An upper level trough north of Hawaii will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they could cause Hurricane Olivia to weaken to a tropical storm early next week.

Hurricane Olivia will move south of a subtropical high over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Olivia toward the west during the next day or two.  The ridge is forecast to strengthen early next week and it will steer Olivia more toward the west-southwest.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Olivia could approach Hawaii on Tuesday night.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Norman moved north of Hawaii and weakened, while Tropical Depression Eighteen-E developed southwest of Baja California.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Norman was located at latitude 26.0°N and longitude 154.4°W which put it about 395 miles (630 km) northeast of Honolulu, Hawaii. Norman was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen-E was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 115.9°W which put it about 610 miles (980 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  It was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.