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Hurricane Polo Hits Sonora

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Hurricane Polo hit Sonora on Tuesday morning after crossing the southern part of Baja California on Monday night.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 26.9°N and longitude 111.7°W which put the center about 90 miles (145 km) south-southwest of Guaymas, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the west coast of Baja California from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe, Mexico.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the east coast of Baja California from  Loreto to Bahia San Juan Bautista, Mexico.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Loreto to San Evaristo, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Huatabampito to Topolobampo, Mexico.

A large upper level trough over the western U.S. was producing strong southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Hurricane Polo.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  Those winds were also blowing the upper part of Polo’s circulation to the northeast of the lower level circulation.  The upper part of Hurricane Polo was already over Sonora.  The lower part of Polo’s circulation was near the coast south of Guaymas.

Hurricane force winds extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of the surface circulation around Hurricane Polo.  Tropical storm force winds extended out 90 miles from the center of the surface circulation.

The upper level trough over the western U.S. will steer Hurricane Polo toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Polo will move across northern Mexico toward New Mexico.

The strong vertical wind shear and the mountains in northern Mexico will cause the surface circulation around Hurricane Polo to weaken quickly.  The upper part of Hurricane Polo could reach southern New Mexico on Tuesday night.

Hurricane Polo will continue to produce strong winds and heavy rain over Sonora during the next few hours.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Polo could also drop locally heavy rain over parts of northern Mexico and New Mexico.

Flood Watches are in effect for much of New Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Rachel was gradually getting better organized.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 104.8°W which put the center about 370 miles (595 km) south of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.   Rachel was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa, Perula, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

Hurricane Polo Brings Wind and Rain to Baja California

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Hurricane Polo brought wind and rain to the southern part of Baja California on Monday night.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 25.9°N and longitude 112.5°W which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) north of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the northeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (215 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the west coast of Baja California from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe, Mexico.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the east coast of Baja California from  Loreto to Bahia San Juan Bautista, Mexico.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia to Punta Abreojos, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from ; Loreto to San Evaristo, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Huatabampito to Topolobampo, Mexico.

Hurricane Polo was still a major hurricane on Monday night.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.

he Hurricane Intensify Index (HII) for Hurricane Polo is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 13.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 33.9.  Hurricane Polo is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

An upper level trough over the western U.S. will steer Hurricane Polo toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipate track, the center of Hurricane Polo will move across the southern part of Baja California during the next few hours.  The center of Polo’s circulation could pass between Loreto and Santa Rosalia.

Hurricane Polo will bring strong winds and heavy rain to southern Baja California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Polo will be capable of causing major damage.

Hurricane Polo will weaken as it moves across the southern part of Baja California.  However, Polo could still be a hurricane when it reaches the west coast of Mexico.  The center of Hurricane Polo will make a landfall on the west coast of Mexico near Guaymas early on Tuesday.

Hurricane Polo will also bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Sonora.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations there as well.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Rachel was strengthening gradually.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 102.5°W which put the center about 345 miles (555 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.   Rachel was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa, Perula, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

 

Hurricane Polo Nears Southern Baja California

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Hurricane Polo moved nearer to the coast of southern Baja California on Sunday evening.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 22.8°N and longitude 114.0°W which put the center about 175 miles (280 km) southwest of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the west coast of Baja California from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe, Mexico.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the east coast of Baja California from  Loreto to Santa Rosalia, Mexico.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Guaymas to Huatabampito, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch  is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia to Punta Abreojos, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from ; Loreto to San Evaristo, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Guaymas to Bahia Kino, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Huatabampito to Topolobampo, Mexico.

Hurricane Polo was still a major hurricane on Sunday evening.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was present at the center of Polo’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Polo.  Storms near the center of Polo generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure did not change much on Sunday.

The distribution of wind speeds in Hurricane Polo was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.

The Hurricane Intensify Index (HII) for Hurricane Polo is 23.4. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 38.0.  Hurricane Polo is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Milton when Milton hit Florida in 2024.

Hurricane Polo will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, Polo will move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is near the West Coast of the U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Polo’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase on Monday.  Hurricane Polo will weaken during the next 24 hours because of more vertical wind shear.

The upper level trough near the West Coast of the U.S. will pull Hurricane Polo toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Polo will make landfall on the coast of southwest Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro on Monday afternoon.

Hurricane Polo will bring strong winds and heavy rain to southern Baja California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Rachel formed south of Mexico.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located at latitude 12.9°N and longitude 99.8°W which put the center about 275 miles (445 km) south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  Rachel was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa, Perula, Mexico.

Polo Prompts Hurricane Warning for Baja California

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A risk posed by Hurricane Polo prompted the government of Mexico to issue a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the west coast of Baja California on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 19.3°N and longitude 113.1°W which put the center about 325 miles (520 km) southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Sante Fe, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia to Punta Abreojos, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San Evaristo, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia to Punta Abreojos, Mexico.

Hurricane Polo weakened steadily on Saturday, but Polo was still a major hurricane on Saturday evening.  A circular eye was still present at the center of Polo’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Polo.  Storms near the center of Polo generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of more mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Saturday.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Polo increased on Saturday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.

The Hurricane Intensify Index (HII) for Hurricane Polo is 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 37.0.  Hurricane Polo is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Milton when Milton hit Florida in 2024.

Hurricane Polo will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, Polo will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is near the West Coast of the U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Polo’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Polo will continue to weaken on Sunday because of more vertical wind shear.

Hurricane Polo will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Polo toward the north during the next 24 hours.  The upper level trough that is near the West Coast of the U.S. will steer Polo toward the northeast on Monday.  Polo will reach southern Baja California on Monday.

Hurricane Polo will bring strong winds and heavy rain to southern Baja California.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, the upper level trough near the West Coast of the U.S. caused Hurricane Odalys to weaken on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Odalys was located at latitude 21.1°N and longitude 123.6°W which put the center about 885 miles (1425 km) west of the the southern tip of Baja California.  Odalys was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Hurricane Polo Strengthens Back to Cat. 5 Again

Hurricane Polo strengthened back to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale again early on Friday as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California.

At 9:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 108.2°W which put the center about 415 miles (665 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 215 m.p.h. (345 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 908 mb.

Hurricane Polo strengthened back to Category 5 early on Friday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Polo’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Polo.  Storms near the center of Polo generated upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of more mass in the upper levels caused the surface pressure to decrease again early  on Friday.

The circulation around Hurricane Polo was very symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.

The Hurricane Intensify Index (HII) for Hurricane Polo is 42.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 56.3.  Hurricane Polo is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dorian when Dorian hit the Bahamas in 2019.

Hurricane Polo will move through an environment that will be favorable for a  very powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is southwest of Mexico. The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Polo could intensify more during the next 24 hours unless another eyewall replacement cycle begins.  An upper level trough that is approaching the West Coast of the U.S. will start to cause more vertical wind shear during the weekend.  Hurricane Polo will start to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Hurricane Polo will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Polo toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Polo will move south of Baja California on Friday.   The upper level trough that is approaching the West Coast of the U.S. will steer Polo toward the northeast during the weekend.  Polo could reach southern Baja California on Monday.

A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for a portion of the coast of southern Baja California.

Hurricane Polo will bring strong winds and heavy rain to southern Baja California early next week.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Odalys intensified to a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Odalys was located at latitude 17.7°N and longitude 123.0°W which put the center about 975 miles (1570 km) west-southwest of the the southern tip of Baja California.  Odalys was moving toward the north-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 940 mb.

Hurricanes Polo and Odalys over Eastern North Pacific

Hurricanes Polo and Odalys were spinning over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Thursday evening.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 106.5°W which put the center about 195 miles (315 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 935 mb.

Hurricane Polo weakened slightly on Thursday but Polo was still a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  A circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (27 km) was at the center of Polo’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Polo.  Storms near the center of Polo generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was a little less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere. So, the surface pressure increased on Thursday.

The circulation around Hurricane Polo was very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.

The Hurricane Intensify Index (HII) for Hurricane Polo is 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 46.2.  Hurricane Polo is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Laura when Laura hit Southwest Louisiana in 2020.

Hurricane Polo will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is southwest of Mexico. The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Polo could intensify back to Category 5 on Friday.

Hurricane Polo will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Polo toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Polo will move south of Baja California on Friday.  Polo could reach southern Baja California on Monday.

Hurricane Polo could bring strong winds and heavy rain to southern Baja California early next week.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Odalys intensified to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Odalys was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 124.2°W which put the center about 1010 miles (1625 km) west-southwest of the the southern tip of Baja California.  Odalys was moving toward the east-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

Hurricane Polo Intensifies Back to Cat. 5

Hurricane Polo intensified back to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved south of Mexico on Wednesday evening.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 104.2°W which put the center about 240 miles (390 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 923 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

Hurricane Polo intensified back to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale after an eyewall replacement cycle was completed on Wednesday.  A new circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of Polo’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Polo.  Storms near the center of Polo generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels caused the surface pressure to start to decrease again.

The circulation around Hurricane Polo was very symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.

The Hurricane Intensify Index (HII) for Hurricane Polo is 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 49.6.  Hurricane Polo is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Andrew when Andrew hit South Florida in 1992.

Hurricane Polo will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is south of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Polo could continue to intensify until another eyewall replacement cycle begins.

Hurricane Polo will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Polo toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Polo will move closer to the coast of southwest Mexico.  The strongest part of Hurricane Polo is forecast to pass west of the coast of Mexico.

Even though the strongest part of Hurricane Polo is forecast to pass west of the coast of Mexico, bands in the northern side of Polo will bring strong winds and heavy rains to the coast of southwestern Mexico.  Strong winds and heavy rain could affect parts of Colima, Michoacan, and western Guerrero.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Odalys continued to intensify gradually far to the southwest of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Odalys was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 127.7°W which put the center about 1205 miles (1940 km) west-southwest of the the southern tip of Baja California.  Odalys was moving toward the east at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Hurricane Polo Stalls South of Mexico

Hurricane Polo stalled south of Mexico on Tuesday night.

At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 101.4°W which put the center about 320 miles (515 km) southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 922 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the existing eye and eyewall in Hurricane Polo.  An outer eyewall surrounded the inner eye and eyewall.  The formation of concentric eyewalls marked the start of an eyewall replacement cycle.  The eyewall replacement cycle caused the maximum sustained wind speed in Hurricane Polo to decrease as the inner eyewall started to weaken.

Two concentric eyewalls were still present in Hurricane Polo on Wednesday morning.  The inner eye had a diameter of 17 miles (28 km).  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls.  Storms near the center of Polo generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Tuesday night.

Even though Hurricane Polo was in the middle of an eyewall replacement cycle, the size of circulation around Polo only got a little larger.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.

The Hurricane Intensify Index (HII) for Hurricane Polo is 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 46.1. Hurricane Polo is similar in intensity to Hurricane Laura when Laura hit Southwest Louisiana in 2020.  Polo is not as large as Laura was.

Hurricane Polo will move through an environment that will be very favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is south of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Polo could weaken a little more while the eyewall replacement cycle is underway.  Polo could strengthen back to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale once the inner eyewall dissipates completely.

A high pressure system is forecast to develop over Mexico later today.  The high pressure system will steer Hurricane Polo toward the northwest after it develops.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Polo will move closer to the coast of southwest Mexico.  The strongest part of Hurricane Polo is forecast to pass west of the coast of Mexico.

Even though the strongest part of Hurricane Polo is forecast to pass west of the coast of Mexico, bands in the northern side of Polo will bring strong winds and heavy rains to the coast of southwestern Mexico.  Strong winds and heavy rain could affect parts of Colima, Michoacan, and western Guerrero.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, former Tropical Storm Odalys strengthened to a hurricane far to the southwest of Baja California. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Odalys was located at latitude 15.9°N and longitude 128.4°W which put the center about 1295 miles (2085 km) west-southwest of the the southern tip of Baja California.  Odalys was moving toward the east-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

NOAA Plane Finds 180 mph Wind in Hurricane Polo

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane found a maximum sustained wind speed of 180 m.p.h. in Hurricane Polo on Tuesday afternoon.  The plane also found a minimum surface pressure of 892 mb.

At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 101.6°W which put the center about 350 miles (565 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Polo was nearly stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 215 m.p.h. (345 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 892 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

A small circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Hurricane Polo.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Polo.  Storms near the center of Polo generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Polo was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.

The Hurricane Intensify Index (HII) for Hurricane Polo is 42.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 12.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 54.7.  Hurricane Polo is similar in size to Hurricane Patricia when Patricia hit Mexico in 2015.  Hurricane Polo is not quite as strong as Patricia was.

Hurricane Polo will move through an environment that will be very favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is south of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Polo could intensify during the next few hours.  At some point the inner end of a rainband is likely to wrap around the existing eye and eyewall.  An eyewall replacement cycle would cause Polo to weaken, at least temporarily.

A strong high pressure system is forecast to develop over Mexico later on Tuesday.  The high pressure system will steer Hurricane Polo toward the northwest after it develops.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Polo will move closer to the coast of southwest Mexico.  The strongest part of Hurricane Polo is forecast to pass west of the coast of Mexico as of the most recent forecasts.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Odalys strengthened far to the southwest of Baja California.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was located at latitude 14.9°N and longitude 130.5°W which put the center about 1455 miles (2340 km) west-southwest of the the southern tip of Baja California.  Odalys was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Hurricane Polo Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 5

Hurricane Polo rapidly intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale early on Tuesday as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 101.5°W which put the center about 360 miles (580 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the east at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 926 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo, Mexico.

Hurricane Polo rapidly intensified to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday morning.    A small circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Polo’ circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Polo.  Storms near the center of Polo generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Polo was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.

The Hurricane Intensify Index (HII) for Hurricane Polo is 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 12.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 47.5.  Hurricane Polo is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Andrew when Andrew hit south Florida in 1992.

Hurricane Polo will move through an environment that will be very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is south of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Polo is likely to continue to intensify during the next few hours.  At some point the inner end of a rainband is likely to wrap around the existing eye and eyewall.  An eyewall replacement cycle would cause Polo to weaken, at least temporarily.

Hurricane Polo will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Polo slowly toward the east during the next few hours.  A bigger and strong high pressure system is forecast to develop over Mexico later on Tuesday. The bigger and strong high pressure system will steer Hurricane Polo toward the northwest after it develops.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Polo will move closer to the coast of southwest Mexico.  The strongest part of Hurricane Polo is forecast to pass west of the coast of Mexico as of the most recent forecasts.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Odalys strengthened far to the southwest of Baja California.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was located at latitude 14.7°N and longitude 130.4°W which put the center about 1455 miles (2340 km) west-southwest of the the southern tip of Baja California.  Odalys was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.