Tag Archives: Las Islas Marias

Hurricane Trudy Moves Closer to Mexico

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Hurricane Trudy moved closer to the west coast of Mexico on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Trudy was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 105.0°W which put the center about 115 miles (185 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Trudy was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Punta San Telmo, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Corrientes to San Blas, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Las Islas Marias.

Hurricane Trudy appeared to go through an eyewall replacement cycle during the past 24 hours.

A circular eye with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) was at the center of Trudy’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Trudy’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Trudy generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So the surface pressure increased on Saturday.

The distribution of wind speeds in Hurricane Trudy was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Trudy’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Hurricane Trudy.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Trudy is 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 12.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 29.1.  Hurricane Trudy is similar in intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.  Trudy is larger than Isaias was.

Hurricane Trudy will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Trudy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is near Baja California.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Trudy’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Trudy could intensify on Sunday if the vertical wind shear does not increase too much.

Hurricane Trudy will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Trudy toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Trudy will approach the west coast of Mexico between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes.

The center of Hurricane Trudy is forecast to remain west of Mexico.  However, bands in the eastern side of Trudy’s circulation will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the west coast of Mexico between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Simon Meanders West of Mexico

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Hurricane Simon meandered over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Mexico on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Simon was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 107.6°W which put the center about 125 miles (200 km) west of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Simon was moving toward the west at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Las Islas Marias.

Hurricane Simon strengthened on Tuesday evening as it meandered just to the west of Mexico.

A very small circular eye with a diameter of 6 miles (10 km) was at the center of Hurricane Simon.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Short bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Simon’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Simon generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was greater than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure decreased on Tuesday evening.

The circulation around Hurricane Simon was very small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Simon’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Hurricane Simon.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Simon is 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 4.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 23.9.  Hurricane Simon is similar in intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.  Simon is much smaller than Zeta was.

Hurricane Simon will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Simon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Simon could intensify back to a major hurricane during the next 12 hours.  Simon could meander back over cooler water it has mixed to the surface later on Wednesday.  If Simon meanders over that cooler water, then it is likely to weaken, because it will extract less energy from the ocean.

Hurricane Simon will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Simon will continue to meander slowly west of Mexico on Wednesday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Trudy formed south of Mexico.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Trudy was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 107.6°W which put the center about 440 miles (705 km) south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.  Trudy was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. 165 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Hurricane Simon Stalls Just West of Mexico

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Hurricane Simon stalled just west of Mexico on Monday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Simon was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 106.8°W which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) west of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Simon was moving toward the west-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Las Islas Marias.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Corrientes to Bahia Tempehuaya, Mexico.  The Hurricane Watch includes Puerto Vallarta.

Hurricane Simon weakened gradually as it stalled on Monday.

Even though Hurricane Simon weakened on Monday, a very small circular eye was still present at the center of Simon’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Simon’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Simon generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Monday.

The circulation around Hurricane Simon was very small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Simon’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hurricane Simon.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Simon is 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 4.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 20.9.  Hurricane Simon is similar in intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.  Simon is smaller than Idalia was.

Hurricane Simon will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Simon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Hurricane Simon will pull some drier air that is over Mexico into its circulation because Simon will remain very close to Mexico.  The drier air will inhibit the formation of new thunderstorms in the eastern and northern parts of Simon’s circulation.  Hurricane Simon is likely to continue to weaken gradually on Tuesday because of the effects of the drier air.  Simon could intensify on Wednesday when it is little farther away from the coast of Mexico.

Hurricane Simon will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Simon slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the core of Hurricane Simon will pass west of the Islas Marias on Tuesday night.

The core of Hurricane Simon will pass west of Las Islas Marias on Tuesday night.  Simon will bring strong winds and heavy rain to those islands on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Flash floods are likely to occur in some locations.  Hurricane Simon could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of coast of Las Islas Marias.

Hurricane Simon Stays Just West of Mexico

The core of Hurricane Simon stayed just to the west of the west coast of Mexico on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Simon was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 105.8°W which put the center about 55 miles (90 km) south of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.   Simon was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to El Roblito, Mexico.  The Hurricane Warning includes Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Las Islas Marias.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from El Roblito to Tempehuaya, Mexico.

Hurricane Simon was a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Sunday afternoon.

A circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was at the center of Hurricane Simon.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Simon’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Simon generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Sunday.

The circulation around Hurricane Simon was very small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Simon’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Hurricane Simon.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Simon is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 8.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 33.3. Hurricane Simon is similar in intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.  Simon is smaller than Harvey was.

Hurricane Simon will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Simon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Hurricane Simon is likely to pull some drier air that is over Mexico into its circulation because Simon will remain very close to Mexico.  The drier air will inhibit the formation of new thunderstorms in the eastern and northern parts of Simon’s circulation.  Hurricane Simon is likely to weaken on Monday because of the effects of the drier air.

Hurricane Simon will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Simon toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the core of Hurricane Simon will remain just to the west of Mexico on Monday.  The center of Simon’s circulation will pass just to the west of Cabo Corrientes on Sunday night.  The core of Hurricane Simon will be near Las Islas Marias on Monday afternoon.

Bands in the eastern side of Hurricane Simon will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the west coast of Mexico.  The strongest winds and heaviest rains will occur in Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

The core of Hurricane Simon will pass near Las Islas Marias on Monday afternoon.  Simon will bring strong winds and heavy rain to those islands.  Flash floods are likely to occur in some locations.  Hurricane Simon could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along parts of coast of Las Islas Marias.

Hurricane Simon Nears Western Mexico

Powerful Hurricane Simon was nearing the west coast of Mexico on Saturday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Simon was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 104.8°W which put the center about 100 miles (160 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.   Simon was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 932 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to El Roblito, Mexico.  The Hurricane Warning includes Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Las Islas Marias.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.

Hurricane Simon intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the existing eye and eyewall on Saturday.  Concentric eyewalls were at the center of Hurricane Simon.  The inner eyewall had a diameter of 14 miles (22 km).  The outer eyewall had a diameter of 40 miles (65 km).

Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Simon’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Simon generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Simon was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Simon’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Simon.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Simon is 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 8.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 40.1.  Hurricane Simon is bigger and stronger than Hurricane Charley was when Charley hit southwest Florida in 2004.

Hurricane Simon will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Simon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Simon could weaken during the next few hours if an eyewall replacement cycle occurs, even though Simon is in a favorable environment.

Hurricane Simon will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Simon toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Simon will be near Manzanillo on Sunday morning.

Hurricane Simon will be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Mexico.  Simon will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the west coast of Mexico.  The strongest winds and heaviest rains will occur in Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Simon could cause a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along parts of the west coast of Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Rachel was moving quickly toward northern Baja California.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located at latitude 27.0°N and longitude 118.3°W which put the center about 255 miles (415 km) southwest of Punta Baja, Mexico.  Rachel was moving toward the north-northeast at 30 m.p.h. (48 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia, Mexico to the Mexico/U.S. border.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Isla San Luis to Puerto Penasco, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the U.S./Mexico border to the San Diego County/Orange County line in California.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Isla San Luis to Bahia de Los Angeles, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Libertad to Puerto Penasco, Mexico.

Simon Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Simon intensified to a major hurricane as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Friday.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Simon was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 104.6°W which put the center about 155 miles (250 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico.   Simon was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, Mexico.  The Hurricane Warning includes Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Mita to El Roblito, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Las Islas Marias.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.

Hurricane Simon intensified to a major hurricane on Friday.

A very small eye formed at the center of Hurricane Simon.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Simon’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Simon generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Simon was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Simon’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Hurricane Simon.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Simon is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 6.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 28.2.

Hurricane Simon will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Simon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Simon will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Simon could intensify rapidly at times.  Hurricane Simon could strengthen to a Category 5 hurricane on Saturday.

Hurricane Simon will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Simon toward the north during the next 24 hours.  Hurricane Simon will approach the west coast of Mexico between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes on Saturday.

Hurricane Simon is likely to be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Mexico.  Simon will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the west coast of Mexico.  The strongest winds and heaviest rains will occur in Jalisco and Nayarit.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Simon could cause a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along parts of the west coast of Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Rachel started to move toward Baja California.  Tropical Storm Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for parts of southern California, the northern part of Baja California and northwestern Mexico.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located at latitude 23.8°N and longitude 123.3°W which put the center about 720 miles (1160 km) south-southwest of San Diego, California.  Rachel was moving toward the northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from San Jose de Las Palomas, Mexico to the Mexico/U.S. border.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Isla San Luis to Puerto Penasco, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the U.S./Mexico border to the San Diego County/Orange County line in California.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Isla San Luis to Bahia de Los Angeles, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Libertad to Puerto Penasco, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Raymond Moves West of Mexico

Tropical Storm Raymond moved west of Mexico on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 106.5°W which put the center about 145 miles (230 km) west of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Raymond was moving toward the northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Las Islas Marias.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Santa Fe, Mexico.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Raymond was still asymmetrical on Friday afternoon. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern and western parts of Raymond’s circulation.  Bands in the northern and eastern parts of Tropical Storm Raymond consisted primarily of shower and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Raymond generated some upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Raymond was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Raymond’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Raymond will move through an environment that will be only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Raymond will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Raymond’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Raymond is likely to weaken on Saturday because of the strong vertical wind shear.

Tropical Storm Raymond will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Raymond toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Raymond will reach the southern end of Baja California on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Raymond will bring gust winds and locally heavy rain to the southern part of Baja California.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, former Tropical Storm Priscilla weakened west of Baja California.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Priscilla was located at latitude 26.3°N and longitude 115.4°W which put the center about 220 miles (355 km) west-northwest of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  Priscilla was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Hurricane Norma Approaches Baja California

Hurricane Norma approached the southern end of Baja California on Friday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Norma was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 109.8°W which put it about 195 miles (310 km) south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Norma was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Todos Santos to Los Barriles, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Cabo San Lucas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Todos Santos to Santa Fe, Mexico and from Los Barriles to San Evaristo, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Las Islas Marias. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Topolobampo to Bahia Tempehuaya, Mexico.

Hurricane Norma was still a major hurricane as it approached the southern end of Baja California on Friday afternoon. A circular eye with a diameter of 18 miles (30 km) was at the center of Norma’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Norma. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Hurricane Norma. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Norma’s circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.4. Hurricane Norma was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Hurricane Norma will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Norma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, an upper level trough west of Baja California will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Norma’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will cause Hurricane Norma will to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Norma will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Norma toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Norma will approach the southern end of Baja California on Saturday morning. Norma will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southern end of Baja California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Hurricane Norma could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters along the coast at the southern end of Baja California.

Norma Prompts Hurricane Warning for Baja California

The potential risk posed by Hurricane Norma prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Warning for the southern part of Baja California. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Norma was located at latitude 18.2°N and longitude 108.1°W which put it about 345 miles (555 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Norma was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Todos Santos to Los Barriles, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Cabo San Lucas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Los Islas Marias. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the portions of the coast from Todos Santos to Santa Fe, Mexico and from Los Barriles to La Paz, Mexico.

Hurricane Norma weakened slowly on Thursday evening. An upper level trough west of Baja California was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Norma’s circulation. Those winds were causing the vertical wind shear to increase. The eye at the center of Hurricane Norma was less distinct on satellite images. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Norma’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Hurricane Norma. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Norma’s circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Norma was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.6. Hurricane Norma was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta hit southwest Louisiana in 2020.

Hurricane Norma will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Norma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level trough west of Baja California will continue to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Norma’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will cause Hurricane Norma will to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Norma will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Norma toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Norma could approach the southern end of Baja California on Friday night. Norma will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the southern end of Baja California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Lidia Hits Mexico Near Puerto Vallarta

Powerful Hurricane Lidia hit the coast of Mexico near Puerto Vallarta on Tuesday evening. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Lidia was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 105.5°W which put it about 35 miles (55 km) south-southwest of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. Lidia was moving toward the east-northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 942 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to El Roblito, Mexico. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Las Islas Marias. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from El Roblito to Mazatlan, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Punta San Telmo, Mexico.

Hurricane Lidia rapidly intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale prior to making landfall on the west coast of Mexico. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Lidia. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.1. Hurricane Lidia was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Charley when Charley hit Southwest Florida in 2004.

An upper level trough west of Baja California will steer Hurricane Lidia toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Lidia will move quickly inland over Jalisco. Lidia will weaken steadily as it moves farther inland. Even though it will weaken, Hurricane Lidia be capable of causing severe damage. Lidia will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Regional outages of electricity are likely. Heavy rain will fall in Jalisco and Nayarit. The heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Hurricane Lidia could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the coast of Jalisco.