Tag Archives: Jalisco

Hurricane Simon Stays Just West of Mexico

The core of Hurricane Simon stayed just to the west of the west coast of Mexico on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Simon was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 105.8°W which put the center about 55 miles (90 km) south of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.   Simon was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to El Roblito, Mexico.  The Hurricane Warning includes Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Las Islas Marias.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from El Roblito to Tempehuaya, Mexico.

Hurricane Simon was a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Sunday afternoon.

A circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was at the center of Hurricane Simon.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Simon’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Simon generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Sunday.

The circulation around Hurricane Simon was very small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Simon’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Hurricane Simon.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Simon is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 8.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 33.3. Hurricane Simon is similar in intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.  Simon is smaller than Harvey was.

Hurricane Simon will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Simon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Hurricane Simon is likely to pull some drier air that is over Mexico into its circulation because Simon will remain very close to Mexico.  The drier air will inhibit the formation of new thunderstorms in the eastern and northern parts of Simon’s circulation.  Hurricane Simon is likely to weaken on Monday because of the effects of the drier air.

Hurricane Simon will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Simon toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the core of Hurricane Simon will remain just to the west of Mexico on Monday.  The center of Simon’s circulation will pass just to the west of Cabo Corrientes on Sunday night.  The core of Hurricane Simon will be near Las Islas Marias on Monday afternoon.

Bands in the eastern side of Hurricane Simon will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the west coast of Mexico.  The strongest winds and heaviest rains will occur in Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

The core of Hurricane Simon will pass near Las Islas Marias on Monday afternoon.  Simon will bring strong winds and heavy rain to those islands.  Flash floods are likely to occur in some locations.  Hurricane Simon could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along parts of coast of Las Islas Marias.

Hurricane Simon Nears Western Mexico

Powerful Hurricane Simon was nearing the west coast of Mexico on Saturday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Simon was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 104.8°W which put the center about 100 miles (160 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.   Simon was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 932 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to El Roblito, Mexico.  The Hurricane Warning includes Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Las Islas Marias.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.

Hurricane Simon intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the existing eye and eyewall on Saturday.  Concentric eyewalls were at the center of Hurricane Simon.  The inner eyewall had a diameter of 14 miles (22 km).  The outer eyewall had a diameter of 40 miles (65 km).

Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Simon’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Simon generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Simon was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Simon’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Simon.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Simon is 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 8.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 40.1.  Hurricane Simon is bigger and stronger than Hurricane Charley was when Charley hit southwest Florida in 2004.

Hurricane Simon will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Simon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Simon could weaken during the next few hours if an eyewall replacement cycle occurs, even though Simon is in a favorable environment.

Hurricane Simon will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Simon toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Simon will be near Manzanillo on Sunday morning.

Hurricane Simon will be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Mexico.  Simon will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the west coast of Mexico.  The strongest winds and heaviest rains will occur in Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Simon could cause a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along parts of the west coast of Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Rachel was moving quickly toward northern Baja California.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located at latitude 27.0°N and longitude 118.3°W which put the center about 255 miles (415 km) southwest of Punta Baja, Mexico.  Rachel was moving toward the north-northeast at 30 m.p.h. (48 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia, Mexico to the Mexico/U.S. border.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Isla San Luis to Puerto Penasco, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the U.S./Mexico border to the San Diego County/Orange County line in California.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Isla San Luis to Bahia de Los Angeles, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Libertad to Puerto Penasco, Mexico.

Simon Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Simon intensified to a major hurricane as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Friday.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Simon was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 104.6°W which put the center about 155 miles (250 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico.   Simon was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, Mexico.  The Hurricane Warning includes Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Mita to El Roblito, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Las Islas Marias.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.

Hurricane Simon intensified to a major hurricane on Friday.

A very small eye formed at the center of Hurricane Simon.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Simon’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Simon generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Simon was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Simon’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Hurricane Simon.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Simon is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 6.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 28.2.

Hurricane Simon will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Simon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Simon will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Simon could intensify rapidly at times.  Hurricane Simon could strengthen to a Category 5 hurricane on Saturday.

Hurricane Simon will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Simon toward the north during the next 24 hours.  Hurricane Simon will approach the west coast of Mexico between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes on Saturday.

Hurricane Simon is likely to be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Mexico.  Simon will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the west coast of Mexico.  The strongest winds and heaviest rains will occur in Jalisco and Nayarit.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Simon could cause a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along parts of the west coast of Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Rachel started to move toward Baja California.  Tropical Storm Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for parts of southern California, the northern part of Baja California and northwestern Mexico.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located at latitude 23.8°N and longitude 123.3°W which put the center about 720 miles (1160 km) south-southwest of San Diego, California.  Rachel was moving toward the northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from San Jose de Las Palomas, Mexico to the Mexico/U.S. border.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Isla San Luis to Puerto Penasco, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the U.S./Mexico border to the San Diego County/Orange County line in California.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Isla San Luis to Bahia de Los Angeles, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Libertad to Puerto Penasco, Mexico.

Simon Strengthens to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Simon strengthened to a hurricane on Thursday evening as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Simon was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 104.6°W which put the center about 235 miles (380 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Simon was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm Simon strengthened to a hurricane on Friday evening.

Tall thunderstorms formed near the center of Hurricane Simon.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Simon’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Simon generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Simon was small.  The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of Simon’s circulation.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles in the northeastern quadrant of Simon.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Simon.

Hurricane Simon will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Simon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Simon will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Simon could intensify rapidly at times.  Hurricane Simon could strengthen to a major hurricane on Friday.

Hurricane Simon will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Simon toward the north during the next 24 hours. Hurricane Simon will approach the west coast of Mexico on Saturday.

Hurricane Simon is likely to be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Mexico.  Simon will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the west coast of Mexico.  The strongest winds and heaviest rains will occur in Jalisco and Nayarit.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Simon could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along parts of the west coast of Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Rachel continued to weaken gradually west of Baja California.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 125.5°W which put the center about 995 miles (1600 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Rachel was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Flossie Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Flossie intensified to a major hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Tuesday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Flossie was located at latitude 18.2°N and longitude 107.4°W which put the center about 365 miles (585 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.   Flossie was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

Hurricane Flossie continued to intensify on Tuesday evening.  A circular eye was at the center of Flossie’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Flossie.  Storms near the center of Flossie generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Flossie was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Flossie’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Flossie.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Flossie is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 8.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 28.9.  Hurricane Flossie is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Hurricane Flossie will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Flossie will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over Mexico and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Flossie could continue to intensify during the next 12 hours.  Flossie will move over cooler water later in Wednesday.  Hurricane Flossie will start to weaken when it moves over cooler water.

Hurricane Flossie will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the Flossie toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Flossie will start to move farther away from the coast of southwestern Mexico.  Flossie will move south of Baja California on Wednesday night.

Bands in the northeastern side of Hurricane Flossie will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of the coast of southwestern Mexico.  The heaviest rain will fall in parts of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Flossie Strengthens to Cat. 2

Hurricane Flossie strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Flossie was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 105.9°W which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Flossie was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo, Mexico.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Hurricane Flossie on Tuesday morning.  A circular eye was visible at the center of Flossie’s circulation on satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Flossie.  Storms near the center of Flossie generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The area of hurricane force winds speeds in Hurricane Flossie increased on Tuesday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Flossie’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Flossie.

Hurricane Flossie will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Flossie will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over Mexico and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Flossie will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Flossie could intensify rapidly at times.  Hurricane Flossie is likely to strengthen to a major hurricane by Wednesday.

Hurricane Flossie will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the Flossie toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Flossie will move parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.  Flossie is likely to move south of Baja California on Wednesday night.

Bands in the northeastern side of Hurricane Flossie will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of the coast of southwestern Mexico.  The heaviest rain will fall in parts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Flossie Intensifies to a Hurricane South of Mexico

Former Tropical Storm Flossie intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Flossie was located at latitude 16.5°N and longitude 104.3°W which put the center about 175 miles (280 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Flossie was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm Flossie intensified steadily on Monday and the U.S. National Hurricane Center upgraded Flossie to a hurricane on Monday night.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of Hurricane Flossie.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Flossie’s circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in the inner end of the rainband that wrapped around the center of Hurricane Flossie.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Flossie’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Flossie generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of winds speeds in Hurricane Flossie became more symmetrical on Monday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Flossie’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Hurricane Flossie.

Hurricane Flossie will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Flossie will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over southern Mexico and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Flossie will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Flossie could intensify rapidly at times.  Hurricane Flossie could strengthen to a major hurricane.

Hurricane Flossie will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the Flossie toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Flossie will move parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Bands in the northern side of Hurricane Flossie will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of the coast of southwestern Mexico.   The heaviest rain will fall in parts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm John Makes Landfall in Mexico Again

Tropical Storm John made landfall on the west coast of Mexico again on Friday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm John was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 103.2°W which put the center about 90 miles (145 km) southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.  John was moving toward the northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Maldonado to Manzanillo, Mexico.

The center of Tropical Storm John moved back over the west coast of Mexico between Lazaro Cardenas and Manzanillo on Friday afternoon.  The maximum sustained wind speed in Tropical Storm John at the time of landfall was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).

The strongest winds were occurring in the southeastern portion of Tropical Storm John.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the southeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm John.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the other parts of John’s circulation.

Tropical Storm John will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer John slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm John will continue to grind slowly along the west coast of Mexico.

Tropical Storm John will drop heavy rain over parts of Colima, Jalisco, and Michoacan.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Lidia Hits Mexico Near Puerto Vallarta

Powerful Hurricane Lidia hit the coast of Mexico near Puerto Vallarta on Tuesday evening. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Lidia was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 105.5°W which put it about 35 miles (55 km) south-southwest of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. Lidia was moving toward the east-northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 942 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to El Roblito, Mexico. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Las Islas Marias. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from El Roblito to Mazatlan, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Punta San Telmo, Mexico.

Hurricane Lidia rapidly intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale prior to making landfall on the west coast of Mexico. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Lidia. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.1. Hurricane Lidia was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Charley when Charley hit Southwest Florida in 2004.

An upper level trough west of Baja California will steer Hurricane Lidia toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Lidia will move quickly inland over Jalisco. Lidia will weaken steadily as it moves farther inland. Even though it will weaken, Hurricane Lidia be capable of causing severe damage. Lidia will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Regional outages of electricity are likely. Heavy rain will fall in Jalisco and Nayarit. The heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Hurricane Lidia could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the coast of Jalisco.

Lidia Rapidly Intensifies to a Major Hurricane Southwest of Puerto Vallarta

Hurricane Lidia rapidly intensified to a major hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Puerto Vallarta on Tuesday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Lidia was located at latitude 19.2°N and longitude 107.2°W which put it about 155 miles (255 km) southwest of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. Lidia was moving toward the east-northeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to El Roblito, Mexico. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Las Islas Marias. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from El Roblito to Mazatlan, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Punta San Telmo, Mexico.

Hurricane Lidia rapidly intensified to a major hurricane on Tuesday. A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane reported a circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was present at the center of Lidia’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Lidia. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Lidia increased on Tuesday. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Lidia. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.1. Hurricane Lidia was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta made landfall in Louisiana in 2020.

Hurricane Lidia will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Lidia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is west of Baja California. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Lidia’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Hurricane Lidia will intensity during the next few hours. Lidia could continue to intensify rapidly.

The upper level trough west of Baja California will steer Hurricane Lidia toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Lidia will make landfall near Puerto Vallarta on Tuesday evening. Lidia will be a major hurricane when it makes landfall. Hurricane Lidia will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain. The strong winds will be capable of causing major damage. Regional outages of electricity are likely. Heavy rain will fall in Jalisco and Nayarit. The heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Hurricane Lidia could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the coast of Jalisco.