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Alvin Weakens to a Depression

Former Tropical Storm Alvin weakened to a tropical depression over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Saturday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Alvin was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 109.5°W which put the center about 155 miles (250 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Alvin was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Alvin weakened to a tropical depression over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Sunday morning.  An upper level low over Baja California caused strong southwesterly winds that blew across the top of Alvin’s circulation.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear.  In addition, Alvin moved over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24°C.  Strong vertical wind shear and cool Sea Surface Temperatures caused former Tropical Storm Alvin to weaken.

Most of the thunderstorms in former Tropical Storm Alvin dissipated due to the strong vertical wind shear and cooler Sea Surface Temperatures.  The circulation around Tropical Depression Alvin existed primarily in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  Bands of showers and lower clouds were revolving around the center of Alvin’s circulation.  Since there were no thunderstorms to generate upper level divergence and to pump mass away, the surface pressure was increasing gradually.

Tropical Depression Alvin will move through an environment very unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alvin will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24°C.  The upper level low over Baja California will continue to produce southwesterly winds that will blow across the top of Alvin’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The combination of cool Sea Surface Temperatures and strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Depression Alvin to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Alvin will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system over Mexico and the upper level low over Baja California will steer Alvin toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Alvin will closer to the southern end of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Alvin Weakens South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Alvin weakened on Friday as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 109.0°W which put the center about 335 miles (540 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Alvin was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

An upper level low over Baja California produced southwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Tropical Storm Alvin on Friday.  Those winds caused the vertical wind shear to increase.  The increase in vertical wind shear caused Alvin to weaken.  The increase in wind shear also caused the distribution of thunderstorm around Tropical Storm Alvin to become asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the northern side of Alvin’s circulation.  Bands in the southern side of Tropical Storm Alvin consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Even though Tropical Storm Alvin weakened on Friday,  the size of the circulation did not change much.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Alvin’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Alvin will move through an environment that will become even more unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alvin will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of the upper level low over Baja California.  The upper level low will continue to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Alvin’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear on Saturday.  The combination of cool Sea Surface Temperatures and strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Alvin to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Alvin will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system over Mexico and the upper level low over Baja California will steer Alvin toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Alvin will closer to the southern end of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Alvin Intensifies Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Storm Alvin intensified over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 107.9°W which put the center about 305 miles (495 km) west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Alvin was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Storm Alvin intensified over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Thursday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Alvin’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Alvin.  Storms near the center of Alvin generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The area of tropical storm force winds increased in size when Tropical Storm Alvin intensified on Thursday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Alvin’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Alvin will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alvin will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level low over Baja California.  The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Alvin’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase on Friday.  The combination of cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and more vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Alvin to start to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Alvin will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system over Mexico and the upper level low over Baja California will steer Alvin toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Alvin will move parallel to the west coast of Mexico.

Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Alvin

Former Tropical Depression One-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Alvin over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 106.3°W which put the center about 345 miles (555 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Alvin was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Former Tropical Depression One-E strengthened on Thursday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Alvin.  Numerous thunderstorms formed near the center of Alvin’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Alvin.  Storms near the center of Alvin generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Alvin.

Tropical Storm Alvin will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alvin will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is south of Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Alvin’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Alvin will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Alvin will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Alvin toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Alvin will move parallel to the west coast of Mexico.

Tropical Depression One-E Forms South of Mexico

Tropical Depression One-E formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Wednesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of the area of Tropical Depression One-E was located at latitude 11.9°N and longitude 109.7°W which put the center about 465 miles (745 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Tropical Depression One-E was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico strengthened on Wednesday and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression One-E.  A distinct low level center of circulation developed in the middle of a larger low pressure system south of Mexico.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation.  Bands of thunderstorms also developed.  Those bands of storms began to revolve around the center of Tropical Depression One-E.  Storms near the center of circulation started to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression One-E will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is south of Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical depression.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Depression One will intensify to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression One-E will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression One-E will move parallel to the west coast of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Aletta Forms West of Mexico

Tropical Storm Aletta formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Mexico on Thursday afternoon.  This is the latest date for the formation of the first tropical storm over the Eastern North Pacific basin during the satellite era.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Aletta was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 107.0°W which put the center about 190 miles (310 km) west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Aletta was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Mexico strengthened on Thursday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Aletta.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Aletta’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in a band in the western part of Tropical Storm Aletta.  Bands in the other parts of Aletta’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storm near the center of Aletta began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Aletta was very small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the northern half of Aletta’s circulation.  The winds in the souther half of Tropical Storm Aletta were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Aletta will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Aletta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Southwest U.S.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly wind that will blow toward the top of Aletta’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Aletta could intensify a little during Thursday night, but cooler water and moderate wind shear are likely to end the intensification by Friday morning.  Aletta is likely to weaken to a tropical depression on Friday.

Tropical Storm Aletta will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Aletta toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Aletta will move farther away from the coast of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Beatriz Moves Along West Coast of Mexico

Tropical Storm Beatriz was moving along the west coast of Mexico on Saturday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Beatriz was located at latitude 19.8°N and longitude 105.4°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) south-southeast of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Beatriz was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Manzanillo to Punta Mita, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Mita to San Blas, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for Las Islas Marias.

The center of former Hurricane Beatriz made a landfall near Punta San Telmo, Mexico during Friday night. When the center of Beatriz made landfall, it significantly disrupted the inner core of Beatriz’ circulation. The disruption of the inner core caused Beatriz to weaken to a tropical storm. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Beatriz became asymmetrical after if made landfall. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Beatriz’ circulation. Bands in the eastern part of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Beatriz.

Former Hurricane Beatriz brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the west coast of Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes during Friday night. The heaviest rain fell along the coast in Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.

Tropical Storm Beatriz will move through an environment that will be only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Beatriz will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over northern Mexico. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beatriz’ circulation. Those winds will cause the wind shear to increase. Since Tropical Storm Beatriz is near the west coast of Mexico, it’s circulation will pull drier air into the eastern and northern parts of Beatriz. The drier air will inhibit the formation of thunderstorms in those parts of the circulation. Since the inner core of Tropical Storm Beatriz was disrupted when it moved over the coast, Beatriz is likely to continue to weaken during the next 36 hours.

The upper level ridge over northern Mexico will steer Tropical Storm Beatriz toward the northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Beatriz will gradually move away from the west coast of Mexico. The gusty winds and locally heavy rain in Jalisco will gradually diminish on Saturday. Beatriz could move southeast of Baja California on Sunday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Adrian weakened south of Baja California. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Adrian was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 114.0°W which put it about 425 miles (685 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Adrian was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Beatriz Rapidly Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Beatriz rapidly intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Beatriz was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 102.3°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) south of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico. Beatriz was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Zihuatenajo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Manzanillo. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita, Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Zihuatenajo and from Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Mita to San Blas, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for Las Islas Marias.

Former Tropical Storm Beatriz rapidly intensified to a hurricane on Friday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Beatriz’ circulation. Visible and microwave satellite images showed that an eye was forming at the center of Hurricane Beatriz. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Beatriz. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Beatriz was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Beatriz’ circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Beatriz will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Beatriz will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over Mexico and the southern U.S. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Hurricane Beatriz. However, the winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Beatriz is likely to intensify during the next 12 hours. Beatriz will be near the coast of Mexico on Saturday. If the core of Hurricane Beatriz remains over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, then it will be in an environment favorable for intensification. If Beatriz moves over land on Saturday, it will weaken quickly.

The upper level ridge over Mexico and the southern U.S. will steer Hurricane Beatriz toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Beatriz will move very close to the coast of Mexico. The center of Beatriz could be near Manzanillo by Friday night. Beatriz could make landfall near Manzanillo or the center of circulation could pass just to the west of Manzanillo. Bands in the northern side of Hurricane Beatriz will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of the west coast of Mexico. Beatriz will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Adrian intensified south-southwest of Baja California. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Adrian was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 112.2°W which put it about 415 miles (665 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Adrian was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

Mexico Issues Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings

The government of Mexico issued Tropical Storm Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings for the west coast of Mexico on Wednesday night. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Maldonado to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning included Acapulco. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Manzanillo, Mexico.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm during the next several days as it moves near the coast of Mexico. The low pressure system was designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Two-E on Wednesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two-E was located at latitude 13.5°N and longitude 96.8°W which put it about 315 miles (505 km) southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. It was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southeast of Acapulco exhibited more organization on Wednesday night. The U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Two-E. More thunderstorms formed in bands in the eastern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two-E. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the system. Removal of mass will allow the surface pressure to decrease.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two-E will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over Mexico and the southern U.S. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two-E. However, the winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two-E is likely to intensify during the next 36 hours. It could strengthen to a tropical depression during the next 12 hours. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two-E could intensify to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

The upper level ridge over Mexico and the southern U.S. will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Two-E toward the northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone Two-E will move closer to the coast of Mexico. It could be south of Acapulco on Thursday. Bands in the northern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two-E could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of the west coast of Mexico. Locally heavy rain could fall in parts of Oaxaca, Guerrero and Jalisco. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Adrian was spinning southwest of Manzanillo. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Adrian was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 109.0°W which put it about 395 miles (640 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Adrian was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Adrian Rapidly Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Adrian rapidly intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico on Wednesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Adrian was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 108.0°W which put it about 360 miles (575 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Adrian was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Adrian rapidly intensified to a hurricane on Wednesday morning. Microwave satellite images showed that a small circular eye had formed at the center of Adrian’s circulation. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Adrian. Storms near the core of Adrian generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Adrian was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Adrian’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Hurricane Adrian.

Hurricane Adrian will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Adrian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Adrian will intensify during the next 24 hours. Adrian could intensify rapidly at times.

Hurricane Adrian will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that extends from Mexico to over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Adrian toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Adrian will move farther away from the west coast of Mexico.