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Tropical Depression Two-E Forms South of Acapulco

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Tropical Depression Two-E formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Acapulco, Mexico on Sunday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Two-E was located at latitude 15.7°N and longitude 99.8°W which put the center about 85 miles (135 km) south of Acapulco, Mexico.  The tropical depression was moving toward the northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Warning that is in effect for the portion of the coast from Laguna de Chacahua to Tecpan de Galeana.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Acapulco.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Acapulco strengthened on Sunday and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Two-E.

A few more thunderstorms were forming near the center of Tropical Depression Two-E on Sunday afternoon.  More thunderstorms were also developing in bands revolving around the center of the tropical depression.  Storms near the center of Tropical Depression Two-E started to generate upper level divergence that was pumping mass away to the west of the tropical depression.  The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease slowly,

Tropical Depression Two-E will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours.  The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical depression.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Depression Two-E could intensify to a tropical storm.

Tropical Depression Two-E around the western side of a high pressure system that is over southeastern Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Two-E will make landfall on the coast of Mexico east of Acapulco in less than 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Two-E could be a tropical storm at the time of landfall.  In any case, the tropical depression or tropical storm will being strong winds and heavy rain to Guerrero and Oaxaca.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Amanda continued to weaken slowly far to the east-southeast of Hawaii.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Amanda was located at latitude 11.5°N and longitude 135.4°W which put the center about 1425 miles (2295 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Amanda was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Amanda Weakens to a Tropical Depression

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Former Tropical Storm Amanda weakened to a tropical depression over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean east-southeast of Hawaii on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Amanda was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 134.7°W which put the center about 1445 miles (2325 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Amanda was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Amanda weakened to a tropical depression on Saturday.  A combination of dry, stable air and vertical wind shear caused many of the remaining thunderstorms in Amanda’s circulation to dissipate.  A few thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the western side of Tropical Depression Amanda.  Most of the bands revolving around the center of Amanda’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

There were no thunderstorms near the center of Tropical Depression Amanda to generate upper level divergence.  Convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere caused the surface pressure to increase slowly.

Tropical Depression Amanda will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Amanda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is west of Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Amanda’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  In addition, Tropical Depression Amanda will continue to move through a region of drier air.  The vertical wind shear and the drier air will cause Tropical Depression Amanda to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Amanda will move around the southern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Amanda slowly toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Amanda will remain far to the east-southeast of Hawaii.

Tropical Storm Amanda Spins Southwest of Baja California

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Tropical Storm Amanda continued to spin over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean far to the southwest of Baja California on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Amanda was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 134.1°W which put the center about 1725 miles (2775 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Amanda was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Amanda started to weaken on Friday as it spun far to the southwest of Baja California.  Amanda moved into a region with drier, more stable air.  The drier air and more vertical wind shear caused some of the thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Amanda to dissipate.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands west of the center of Amanda’s circulation.  Bands in the other parts of Tropical Storm Amanda consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Thunderstorms west of the center of Tropical Storm Amanda generated less upper level divergence.  The removal of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels.  So, the net inflow of mass caused the surface pressure to increase slowly.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Amanda was very small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Amanda’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Amanda will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Amanda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is west of Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Amanda’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. In addition, Tropical Storm Amanda will continue to move through a region of drier air.  The vertical wind shear and the drier air will cause Tropical Storm Amanda to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Amanda will move around the southern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Amanda slowly toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Amanda will remain far to the southwest of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Amanda Strengthens a Little

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Tropical Storm Amanda strengthened a little on Thursday as it continued to spin over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean far to the southwest of Baja California.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Amanda was located at latitude 12.7°N and longitude 131.1°W which put the center about 1560 miles (2510 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Amanda was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Even though Tropical Storm Amanda strengthened a little on Thursday, the distribution of thunderstorms in Amanda continued to be asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring mainly in bands in the western half of Amanda’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Amanda consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Amanda generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Amanda was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Amanda’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Amanda will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Amanda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is west of Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Amanda’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Amanda could intensify a little more during the next 24 hours.  Amanda will move into a region where the upper level winds are stronger and where there will be more vertical wind shear during the weekend.  Tropical Storm Amanda will start to weaken when the vertical wind shear in creases.

Tropical Storm Amanda will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Amanda slowly toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Amanda will remain far to the southwest of Baja California.

Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Amanda

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Former Tropical Depression One-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Amanda far to the southwest of Baja California on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Amanda was located at latitude 10.6°N and longitude 128.2°W which put the center about 1475 miles (2375 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Amanda was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Former Tropical Depression One-E strengthened far to the southwest of Baja California on Wednesday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Amanda.

More thunderstorms formed just to the west of the center of Tropical Storm Amanda on Wednesday morning.  Other thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and western parts of Amanda’s circulation.  Bands in the southern and eastern parts of Tropical Storm Amanda still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Tropical Storm Amanda generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Amanda was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northern half of Amanda’s circulation.  The winds in the southern half of Tropical Storm Amanda were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Amanda will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Amanda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is west of Mexico. The upper level ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Amanda’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Amanda will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Amanda will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Amanda slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Amanda will remain far to the southwest of Baja California during the next few days.

Tropical Depression One-E Forms Southwest of Baja California

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Tropical Depression One-E formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean far to the southwest of Baja California on Tuesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression One-E was located at latitude 9.4°N and longitude 126.7°W which put the center about 1450 miles (2335 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  The tropical depression was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California strengthened on Tuesday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression One-E.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Depression One-E was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern half of the tropical depression.  Bands in the southern half of Tropical Depression One-E consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Tropical Depression One-E began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to start to decrease slowly.

Tropical Depression One-E will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is west of Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical depression.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Depression One-E is likely to intensify to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression One-E will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression One-E will remain far to the southwest of Baja California during the next few days.

Alvin Weakens to a Depression

Former Tropical Storm Alvin weakened to a tropical depression over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Saturday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Alvin was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 109.5°W which put the center about 155 miles (250 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Alvin was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Alvin weakened to a tropical depression over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Sunday morning.  An upper level low over Baja California caused strong southwesterly winds that blew across the top of Alvin’s circulation.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear.  In addition, Alvin moved over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24°C.  Strong vertical wind shear and cool Sea Surface Temperatures caused former Tropical Storm Alvin to weaken.

Most of the thunderstorms in former Tropical Storm Alvin dissipated due to the strong vertical wind shear and cooler Sea Surface Temperatures.  The circulation around Tropical Depression Alvin existed primarily in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  Bands of showers and lower clouds were revolving around the center of Alvin’s circulation.  Since there were no thunderstorms to generate upper level divergence and to pump mass away, the surface pressure was increasing gradually.

Tropical Depression Alvin will move through an environment very unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alvin will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24°C.  The upper level low over Baja California will continue to produce southwesterly winds that will blow across the top of Alvin’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The combination of cool Sea Surface Temperatures and strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Depression Alvin to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Alvin will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system over Mexico and the upper level low over Baja California will steer Alvin toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Alvin will closer to the southern end of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Alvin Weakens South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Alvin weakened on Friday as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 109.0°W which put the center about 335 miles (540 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Alvin was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

An upper level low over Baja California produced southwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Tropical Storm Alvin on Friday.  Those winds caused the vertical wind shear to increase.  The increase in vertical wind shear caused Alvin to weaken.  The increase in wind shear also caused the distribution of thunderstorm around Tropical Storm Alvin to become asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the northern side of Alvin’s circulation.  Bands in the southern side of Tropical Storm Alvin consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Even though Tropical Storm Alvin weakened on Friday,  the size of the circulation did not change much.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Alvin’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Alvin will move through an environment that will become even more unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alvin will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of the upper level low over Baja California.  The upper level low will continue to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Alvin’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear on Saturday.  The combination of cool Sea Surface Temperatures and strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Alvin to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Alvin will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system over Mexico and the upper level low over Baja California will steer Alvin toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Alvin will closer to the southern end of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Alvin Intensifies Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Storm Alvin intensified over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 107.9°W which put the center about 305 miles (495 km) west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Alvin was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Storm Alvin intensified over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Thursday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Alvin’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Alvin.  Storms near the center of Alvin generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The area of tropical storm force winds increased in size when Tropical Storm Alvin intensified on Thursday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Alvin’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Alvin will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alvin will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level low over Baja California.  The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Alvin’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase on Friday.  The combination of cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and more vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Alvin to start to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Alvin will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system over Mexico and the upper level low over Baja California will steer Alvin toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Alvin will move parallel to the west coast of Mexico.

Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Alvin

Former Tropical Depression One-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Alvin over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 106.3°W which put the center about 345 miles (555 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Alvin was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Former Tropical Depression One-E strengthened on Thursday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Alvin.  Numerous thunderstorms formed near the center of Alvin’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Alvin.  Storms near the center of Alvin generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Alvin.

Tropical Storm Alvin will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alvin will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is south of Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Alvin’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Alvin will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Alvin will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Alvin toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Alvin will move parallel to the west coast of Mexico.